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特朗普与习近平即将会晤,AI监管成焦点

Trump Awaits Xi's US Visit

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中美高层会晤落地且涉及AI监管与科技竞争核心议题,叠加美债收益率飙升引发的宏观流动性变化,直接影响跨资产定价逻辑,建议关注后续政策细节与市场波动。

Live from Washington, D.C. this is Balance of Power with Joe, Matthew, and Kailey Lines. Counting down to the summit and the state Dinner with I on the menu. Welcome to the Wednesday edition. As artificial intelligence leads the agenda in the Trump XI summit about to begin this evening, I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kailey Leinz in Washington, where she will be touching down hours from now. Kelly I is, of course, on the agenda domestically, but it's something Washington hasn't been able to get its arms around yet.

这里是华盛顿特区现场直播,我是《权力平衡》节目的乔、马修和凯利·莱因斯。我们正倒计时峰会及以“我”为主菜的国宴。欢迎来到周三版节目。随着人工智能成为即将于今晚开始的特朗普与习主席峰会的议程焦点,我是乔·马修,与在华盛顿的凯利·莱因斯连线,她将在几个小时后抵达。当然,AI在国内议程上占据重要位置,但这是华盛顿方面至今尚未能妥善应对的问题。

Know, as President Trump has pushed back on the need to regulate this technology, doing so on the floor of the United Nations General Assembly just yesterday, suggesting he rejects a push for a global regime to rein in artificial intelligence. He wants to encourage it and win the race against China. Which brings us back to the summit that will be happening with XI and his greeting of XI Jinping at the airport at Andrews Air Force Base this evening.

众所周知,特朗普总统一直反对对这项技术进行监管,就在昨天他在联合国大会发言时,暗示他拒绝推动建立全球机制来约束人工智能。他希望鼓励发展人工智能,并在对华竞争中胜出。这又把我们带回到今晚将在安德鲁斯空军基地举行的峰会,届时习主席将在那里迎接习近平主席。

Yep. That's right. And that will tick off a whole series of events that may or may not be televised. We're still waiting to hear what happens to TV pool coverage at the white House, a case that's going to court today, uh, just about 2.5 hours from now. Could resolve in a ruling this evening or not. Kelly, as these news organizations CNN, MSS now Politico still banned from the white House and that has resulted in a solidarity among TV networks to provide no pool TV coverage and something that would probably be considered good news by President XI.

是的,没错。这将引发一系列可能电视转播也可能不转播的活动。我们仍在等待白宫电视联合采访池(TV pool)覆盖情况的最新消息,该案今天约两个半小时后将有裁决,可能在当晚得出判决结果,也可能不会。凯利,像CNN、MSNBC和《政客》杂志等新闻机构目前仍被禁止进入白宫,这导致电视网络之间形成团结,不提供任何电视联合采访覆盖,而这很可能被视为对习主席而言的好消息。

Yeah, and perhaps by President Trump as well. Maybe not not having any TV cameras there. But he did tell CNN in New York that they shouldn't be here covering him in the first place. So he still seems to be holding firm, at least his rejection of certain outlets. But it is going to be up to the courts to decide. And the president has suggested he thinks that it is maybe likely the court isn't going to side with him in this instance.

是的,也许对特朗普总统也是如此。或许没有电视摄像机在场并非坏事。但他确实在纽约告诉CNN,他们本就不该来这里报道他。因此,他似乎仍然坚持立场,至少是拒绝某些媒体机构。但这最终将由法院来裁定。而且总统曾表示,他认为法院此次可能不会站在他这一边。

So we'll get into all of that this hour. But back to artificial intelligence and how to regulate it. It's not just about the speed of AI development. It's also how the workforce response and what the government needs to do to enable workers to be able to adapt in this new era of technology. And that's the conversation we had. Democratic Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, who has some new legislation, a different wrinkle than some of the approaches that we've heard.

所以我们将在这一个小时内深入探讨所有这些话题。但让我们回到人工智能及其监管问题上。这不仅关乎人工智能发展的速度,还涉及劳动力的应对措施,以及政府需要做什么以使工人在这个新技术时代能够适应。这正是我们进行的对话内容。来自亚利桑那州的民主党参议员马克·凯利提出了一项新立法,其思路与我们之前听到的一些方法有所不同。

I believe there is a killswitch involved in the greater bill, but this would actually tax users and would have a digital tax as well to provide unemployment benefits, essentially for what could happen once AI evolves in that direction. We'll have that conversation with Senator Kelly for you. Are panels in place, Rick Davis and Jenny Zeno. And of course, we're always watching Wall Street. Indeed. And what a day it is today in the bond market especially.

我相信在更大的法案中涉及一个紧急停止开关,但这实际上会对用户征税,并且还会征收数字税以提供失业救济金,本质上是为了应对人工智能朝那个方向发展的可能性。我们将为您与凯利参议员进行这场对话。里克·戴维斯和珍妮·泽诺,小组讨论是否已安排妥当?当然,我们始终关注华尔街。确实如此。今天债券市场尤其精彩。

Am I looking at a ten year yield up 14 basis points. Charlie Pellet in New York. Do my eyes deceive me? What's happening? You know, Kailey, funny you should mention it because once in a while you see a quote go by and you do a double take. I did that today with a ten year, 5.10% right now on the ten year. In addition to that, we've also got rising energy prices. Bottom line, equities selling off right to the numbers with the S&P moving lower down 58 right now down by about 8/10 of 1%.

我看到十年期收益率上升了14个基点吗?查理·佩莱特在纽约。我的眼睛欺骗了我吗?发生了什么?你知道,凯莉,你提到这个很有趣,因为偶尔你会看到一条报价闪过,让你大吃一惊。我今天对十年期国债就是这样,目前十年期收益率为5.10%。此外,我们还有不断上涨的能源价格。总之,股市正在抛售,标准普尔指数下跌,目前下跌58点,跌幅约为0.8%。

We've got the Dow lower by 308. Dow industrials down 6/10 of 1%. A retreat for Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 index both hit records yesterday. Right now they are lower by 1.2% on Nasdaq. The Nasdaq 100 index declining by 1.1%. All of us with the stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. No strangers to big move up or down right now declining by 2.2%. The VIX just above 15. The two year 4.93%. And that ten year now 5.11% 30 year 5.39%.

道琼斯指数下跌308点。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.6%。纳斯达克和纳斯达克100指数昨天均创下纪录。目前纳斯达克下跌1.2%,纳斯达克100指数下跌1.1%。所有股票都在波动。费城半导体指数。对于大幅上涨或下跌并不陌生,目前下跌2.2%。VIX指数略高于15。两年期国债收益率为4.93%。而十年期国债收益率现为5.11%,三十年期为5.39%。

Gold is down 1.9% 4279. The ounce West Texas Intermediate crude just above 91 a barrel, up 9/10 of 1%. Brent 122 up now by 3%. Mortgage rates holding close to the highest level in more than two years, weighing on a housing market already suppressed by elevated prices and sluggish sales. Mortgage Bankers Association puts the 30 year now at 7.1%. Mortgage rates, of course, closely track the ten year and that ten year, 5.12% for On-Demand use 24 hours a day.

黄金下跌1.9%,报4279美元。西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)每桶略高于91美元,上涨0.9%。布伦特原油122美元,现上涨3%。抵押贷款利率保持在两年多来的最高水平附近,给已经因高房价和疲软销售而受压制的住房市场带来压力。抵押贷款银行家协会将30年期房贷利率定为7.1%。当然,抵押贷款利率紧密跟踪十年期国债收益率,目前该利率为5.12%。On-Demand全天候24小时提供服务。

Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now wherever you get your podcast. John Kelly that's a Bloomberg Businessweek. All right, Charlie Pallett running us through the remarkable market action today. And in the bond market specifically, it's not just the ten year I would point you to the five year as well, as we just got the results from a five year auction, $70 billion worth. And perhaps no surprise, given the movement we were already seeing going into the auction.

在您收听播客的任何地方订阅Bloomberg News Now。约翰·凯利,这是《彭博商业周刊》。好的,查理·佩莱特带我们回顾今天令人瞩目的市场动态。特别是在债券市场,我不仅会指向十年期国债,还会指向五年期国债,因为我们刚刚收到了五年期拍卖的结果,金额为700亿美元。鉴于我们在拍卖前已经看到的走势,这或许并不令人意外。

Pretty big tail. The pre issue, uh, when issued yield 5.02%, drawing 5.033%. The five year yield Joe now up 19 basis points on the day to 503. That is really something. And we're going to have to continue to keep our eyes on it um throughout the hour. But of course, the other story that is dominating Washington today and that Wall Street we'll also be paying attention to as to what, if anything, comes out of this summit between President Trump and China's XI Jinping.

尾巴相当大。发行前,嗯,发行收益率为5.02%,认购比例为5.033%。五年期收益率乔现在当天上涨19个基点至5.03。这确实非同寻常。在接下来的一个小时里,我们将不得不持续关注它。但当然,今天主导华盛顿的另一个故事,以及华尔街也将关注的故事,是特朗普总统与中国国家主席习近平之间的峰会能否带来任何成果。

We know trade and tariffs, the war with Iran, Taiwan and yes, artificial intelligence are on the agenda. The question is whether talking about it gets us to any real deliverables in the aftermath. Well, that's right. And look, lawmakers are talking about it. In many cases. Democrats and Republicans are agreeing on this. You know, the president has called attempts to regulate a global scheme. Just as recently as yesterday.

我们知道贸易和关税、与伊朗的战争、台湾问题,是的,人工智能都在议程上。问题是,在事后讨论这些是否能让我们达成任何真正的成果。没错。而且你看,立法者们在讨论这个问题。在许多情况下,民主党和共和党都对此表示赞同。你知道,总统称试图监管是一场全球性的阴谋。就在昨天他还这么说。

We've heard about kill switches. We've heard about pacing the frontier. But there's a new bill from Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, who he spoke with a short time ago called the make I work for Americans Act to protect American workers specifically and regulate the I industry. It would come with some taxes. Kelly a digital ad tax and an AI user tax that would essentially create a fund to support workers impacted by the industry.

我们听说过紧急制动开关。我们听说过为前沿技术设定节奏。但亚利桑那州参议员马克·凯利提出了一项新法案,他不久前与我们交谈过,该法案名为《让AI为美国人服务法案》,旨在专门保护美国工人并规范AI行业。它将伴随一些税收。凯利提出的数字广告税和AI用户税将基本上建立一个基金,以支持受该行业影响的工人。

We got into this a short time ago with the Democrat from Arizona, and started by asking him if this is preparing for a white collar wipeout. Well, I don't think we know Joe. Um, but I think we have to be prepared. I would think about this. You know, I think about this as, like being in the space shuttle in the master alarm. Light is flashing in your face. It's time to act and come up with a plan. Um, and there is the possibility we could have significant job loss.

我们不久前列宁这位来自亚利桑那州的民主党人进行了讨论,并开始问他这是否是在为白领失业潮做准备。嗯,我不认为我们知道了,乔。嗯,但我认为我们必须做好准备。我会这样想这件事。你知道,我认为这就像身处航天飞机中,主警报响起。灯光在你面前闪烁。是时候采取行动并制定计划了。嗯,并且有可能出现大量失业。

Hasn't come as fast as we thought. However, the technology is moving along and becoming more capable than we anticipated. So I think it's appropriate now, especially when you consider the United States Congress and how hard it is like shepherd legislation through and eventually get it to a president's desk to be signed. You know, I think we need to establish a fund, generate some revenue, and then we could use that revenue to give people options When or if they lose their job and are trying to figure out what are they going to do next.

速度还没有像我们预期的那样快。然而,技术发展迅速,比我们预期的更具能力。所以我认为现在是合适的,尤其是当你考虑到美国国会以及如此艰难地引导立法通过并最终送到总统办公桌签署时。你知道,我认为我们需要建立一个基金,产生一些收入,然后我们可以利用这些收入为人们提供选择,当或如果他们失去工作并试图弄清楚下一步该做什么时。

What would you say, Senator, if one of the AI labs were to push back on taxes like this, including on excess profits, and saying, well, that's less. We have to invest in R&D and to try to win a race against China. That President Trump is framing this entire conversation around. Is there a chance that regulating or putting into place legislation like this gives China a step ahead? Well, Kelly, I've had conversations with CEOs of the of the major AI companies and they realize, uh, the impact that their technology could have on the workforce.

参议员,如果某家 AI 实验室对征收此类税收(包括超额利润税)提出反对,并表示这会导致收入减少,因为他们必须投资于研发并试图在与中国的竞争中胜出——而特朗普总统正是围绕这一点来构建整个对话的——您会怎么说?是否存在这样的风险:监管或出台此类立法会使中国抢占先机?

And they understand that there is an enormous amount of revenue that's going to be generated for them. Uh, when people when the, when these AI models are used to replace people. And from my conversations with them, it's pretty apparent that they they think they should be part of the solution. Uh, and they're, you know, uh, you know, they're agreeable that they shou

凯利,我与几家主要 AI 公司的首席执行官进行过交谈,他们意识到其技术可能对劳动力产生的影响。他们也明白,当这些 AI 模型被用于替代人类时,将为他们带来巨额收入。从我的交谈中可以看出,他们普遍认为应该成为解决方案的一部分。而且,你知道,他们同意自己应当承担相应的责任。

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