跳到主内容
@wquguru
精选70Bloomberg Television(YouTube)股市多源精选 ×11

美油回吐油价破百预期,科技股领涨纳指涨逾2.5%

Tech Stocks Rally as Oil & Treasury Yields Retreat

原文
发到 X

A STRONG START TO THE FINAL FULL TRADING WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

九月最后一个完整交易周开局强劲。

WE ARE KICKING YOU OFF TO THE CLOSING BELL HERE IN THE U.S.. GREEN ON THE SCREEN. THE S&P 500 IS UP. A TECH HEAVY RALLY. THE NASDAQ 100 UP MORE THAN 2.5 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT HAPPEN IN A VACUUM. BRENT CRUDE VACCINATOR 100 DOLLARS A BARREL. TRIPLE DIGITS FOR MOST CONSUMERS. ALL EYES AND EARS GLUED TO THE 10 YEAR. 4.69%. ROMAINE: THAT RISK ON FRAME OF MIND GOING BACK TO THE MARKETS. THEY HAD BEEN CONSUMED WITH WORRY ABOUT GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS.

我们在这里为您播报美国收盘钟声。屏幕一片飘红。标普500指数上涨。科技股主导的反弹行情,纳斯达克100指数涨幅超过2.5%。尽管这并非孤立现象。布伦特原油价格逼近每桶100美元大关。对大多数消费者而言已是三位数高位。所有人的目光和耳朵都紧盯着10年期国债收益率4.69%。罗梅恩:这种风险偏好心态正回归市场。此前市场一直被政府债券收益率的担忧所笼罩。

AND RESURGENT ENERGY PRICES. WE SHOULD POINT OUT THAT THOSE? 'S MIGHT BE DIMINISHED BUT NOT ENTIRELY GONE. STRONG CORPORATE EARNINGS ARE THE MAIN BALLAST. S&P EVALUATION STILL AT THEIR LOWEST IN MONTHS. THE LATEST RALLY STILL VULNERABLE TO ENERGY PRICES. THE CHICAGO FED PRESIDENT ALSO ADDING ANOTHER ASTERISK TO THIS RALLY. HE SAID THE CENTRAL BANK RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT SUPPLY SHOCKS WILL NOT BE PAINLESS. THIS IS WHEN AMERICANS ARE FEELING THE PAIN OF RECORD HIGH DIESEL PRICES.

以及能源价格的回升。我们需要指出的是,那些(担忧)可能正在减弱但并未完全消失。强劲的财报是主要的压舱石。标普估值仍处于数月来的最低水平。最新的反弹仍易受能源价格影响。芝加哥联储主席也为此次反弹增添了另一个注脚。他表示,央行对持续供应冲击的回应将不会毫无痛苦。此时美国人正切身感受到创纪录柴油价格带来的痛苦。

UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY AT THE START OF THE WEEK AND THE TRUMP-X TALKS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ISHARE OF WARNER BROS. SURGING AFTER THEY SETTLED WITH CALIFORNIA AND OTHER STATES. THE CEO JUST MOMENTS AGO TELLING STAFF HE WILL NOT CLOSE THE $100 BILLION DEAL IN JUST A COUPLE OF WEEKS, WHICH WOULD MAKE IT THE THIRD LARGEST STEEL COMPLETED IN THE LAST DECADE AND SECOND-BIGGEST OF THE YEAR. A YEAR THAT IS ALREADY DEFYING EXPECTATIONS AND SETTING RECORD AFTER RECORD.

联合国大会于本周初召开,特朗普-X谈判贯穿整周。华纳兄弟股份在宣布与加州及其他州达成和解后飙升。首席执行官刚刚几分钟前告诉员工,他将在短短几周内完成这笔1000亿美元的交易,这将使其成为过去十年中完成的第三大钢铁交易,也是今年第二大交易。而今年已经是一个不断打破预期、屡创新高的年份。

IT IS A MASSIVE YEAR. CORPORATE DEALMAKING IS INCREDIBLY ACTIVE. ONE OF THE THINGS THIS YEAR IS THE NUMBER OF DEALS THAT WE SEE IN CAPITAL MARKETS. ROMAINE: RECORD DEALMAKING. ONE COMPANY THAT IS AT THE CENTER OF IT ALL. KICKING US OFF IS PRESIDENT AND CEO OF MIZUHO SECURITIES USA. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE HOLDING UP PRETTY WELL.

这是一个庞大的年份。企业并购活动异常活跃。今年的一个特点是我们在资本市场看到的交易数量。罗梅恩:创纪录的并购活动。一家处于这一切中心的公司。首先登场的是瑞穗证券美国公司总裁兼首席执行官。看起来情况维持得相当不错。

AS YOU JUST REPORTED, THE LINES ARE VERY HIGH. THERE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF BIG DEALS. STILL IN A HEALTHY ENVIRONMENT. WHAT WE ARE SEEING. IN RESPECT TO JAPAN. WE TALK ABOUT THE DEALS WE HAVE SEEN. THEY ARE SKEWING THE NUMBERS JUST A BIT. WE ARE SEEING THIS APPETITE. EMBRACING THE FINANCING ON THAT. GIVEN THE CURRENT REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT AND OTHER ISSUES GOING ON.

正如您刚才报道的那样,排队等候的人非常多。发生了许多大型交易。环境依然健康。我们看到的情况是,就日本而言。我们谈论所见到的交易,它们使数据略微出现偏差。我们看到这种胃口正在接受相关的融资安排。鉴于当前的监管环境和其他正在进行的问题。

NO DOUBT IT IS A VERY FAVORABLE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT. COMPANIES ARE GENERATING A LOT OF REVENUE. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY IS STILL PRETTY STRONG. I THINK THE INCENTIVES ARE STILL THERE TO INVEST. BAILEY: HOW DO YOU THINK ABOUT THE IMPACT OF THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS? ARE YOU SEEING COMPANIES WANT TO BE ON THE OFFENSIVE FOOTING? JERRY: I HAVE NOT HEARD THAT. BAILEY: ARE THERE AREAS YOU EXPECTED TO SEE RIEP FOR DEALS?

毫无疑问,这是一个非常有利的监管环境。企业正在产生大量收入。美国经济的前景依然相当强劲。我认为投资的激励措施仍然存在。贝利:你怎么看待中期选举的影响?你是否看到公司希望采取主动姿态?杰瑞:我没听说过这一点。贝利:是否有你预期会出现RIEP(相关投资计划)的领域?

JERRY: I DON'T HAVE A SPECIFIC VIEW ON WHAT INDUSTRY WILL BE MOST RIGHT. WE ARE LOOKING AT THE CROSS-BORDER SIDE. MAYBE THAT IS THE MOST INTERESTING TWIST. ROMAINE: A LOT OF THAT HAS TO DO WITH THE CHANGING NATURE OF THE JAPANESE ECONOMY. WHEN YOU LOOK AT MONETARY POLICY , IS IT IN CONTEST WITH EACH OTHER? JERRY: I DON'T THINK SO. THERE IS A LOT OF REASON FOR THAT. SUPPLY HAS COUNTED QUITE A BIT. THERE HAS BEEN INTERVENTION BY THE TOKYO STOCK EXCHANGE.

杰瑞:我对哪个行业最有利可图没有具体看法。我们关注的是跨境方面。也许这是最有趣的转折。罗曼:这在很大程度上与日本经济性质的变化有关。当你看货币政策时,它们是否相互矛盾?杰瑞:我不这么认为。有很多理由支持这一点。供应端起了相当大的作用。东京证券交易所进行了干预。

CHALLENGING COMPANIES TO BE MORE SHAREHOLDER AWARE. I THINK THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT HAS IDENTIFIED 17 SECTORS THAT ARE CRITICALLY IMPORTANT TO THE JAPANESE ECONOMY. THEY HAVE TARGETED 2.5 TRILLION IN INVESTMENT BOTH PUBLIC AND PRIVATE. I THINK THAT IS CREATING A LOT OF MOMENTUM FOR THE JAPANESE ECONOMY. AND INTERESTED IN INVESTING IN JAPAN. CORPORATE'S IN JAPAN LOOKING OUTSIDE. ROMAINE: THAT IS WHAT I'M CURIOUS ABOUT.

挑战公司更加关注股东利益。我认为当前政府确定了17个对日本经济至关重要的部门。他们针对公共和私人投资设定了2.5万亿的目标。我认为这为日本经济创造了大量动力。并且有兴趣在日本投资。日本的企业正在向外看。罗曼:这正是我好奇的地方。

THE NARRATIVE FOR SO MANY YEARS HAS BEEN THAT ALL OF THIS HAS LEFT JAPAN AND IS LOOKING FOR INCENTIVES ELSEWHERE. FINANCIAL INCENTIVES TO KEEP THAT MONEY AT HOME. YOU ARE SEEING U.S. CORPORATIONS GO THERE. SOME OF THESE AI COMPANIES. LOOKING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME OF THIS YEN BORROWING. JERRY: IN TERMS OF LOOKING INTO JAPAN FOR INVESTMENT, HOUSEHOLDS IN JAPAN HAVE ABOUT HALF OF THEIR FINANCIAL ASSETS IN CASH. THINK ABOUT 16 TRILLION.

多年来一直有这样的叙事:所有这些资金都离开了日本,并在其他地方寻找激励措施。以财务激励将资金留在国内。你看到美国公司前往那里。其中一些AI公司。试图利用日元借贷的一些优势。杰瑞:在考虑对日本进行投资方面,日本家庭将其金融资产的一半左右存放在现金中。大约16万亿。

CORPORATE'S HAVE CLOSE TO 2.5 TRILLION IN CASH. BY THE SAME TOKEN U.S. CORPORATE'S ARE CLOSER TO $3 TRILLION. THERE IS LOTS OF OPPORTUNITY. GIVEN THE NEW INITIATIVES FROM THIS ADMINISTRATION. IN JAPAN AND ALSO A DIFFERENT MINDSET. YOU HAVE HAD DEFLATION FOR A LONG TIME. OF ABOUT .5%. THE ECONOMY IS ONLY GOING ABOUT 30%. ROMAINE: I'M CURIOUS ON THAT POINT. NOW THAT WE ARE SEEING JAPANESE YIELDS RISE. IT IS NOT SEEM LIKE MUCH.

企业的现金持有量接近2.5万亿。同样地,美国企业的现金持有量接近3万亿美元。机会很多。鉴于本届政府的新的举措。在日本以及一种不同的心态。长期存在通缩,约为0.5%。经济增长率仅为30%左右。罗曼:我对这一点很好奇。现在我们看到日本收益率上升。看起来并不多。

IT IS PRETTY MEANINGFUL. THIS IS THE THRESHOLD WHERE WE START TO SEE MORE MONEY? OR GREATER REPATRIATION? JERRY: WE COULD SEE THAT, FOR SURE. WE HAVE NOT HAD 10 YEAR RATES AT THAT RATE IN A LONG TIME. YOU HAVE SHORT RATES. YOU CAN VERY WELL SEE SOME OF THAT. BAILEY: WITHIN JAPAN ARE YOU EXPECTING MORE CONSOLIDATION? YOU HAVE A NUMBER OF AUTOMAKERS. A NUMBER OF COMPANIES. THEY ARE WORKING TO HAVE THIS CROSS POLYMERIZATION.

这相当有意义。这是我们要开始看到更多资金回流?还是更大的利润汇回?杰瑞:我们肯定能看到这一点。很久没有十年期利率达到这个水平了。你有短期利率。你完全可以看到其中的一些情况。贝利:在日本国内,你是否预期会有更多的整合?你有很多汽车制造商。很多公司。他们正在努力进行这种交叉聚合。

THIS IS SOMETHING YOU WOULD EXPECT TO SEE RAPIDLY CHANGE OR DOES IT FEEL LIKE A SLOW BURN? JERRY: HOW RAPIDLY THINGS OCCUR? I THINK IT IS HAPPENING. IT HAS BEEN IN PROGRESS FOR A WHILE NOW. IT HAS BEEN AN INITIATIVE. I THINK MOST OF THE JAPANESE CORPORATE'S ARE TAKING IT SERIOUSLY. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE IT IN THE REPORTED EARNINGS. ROMAINE: I AM CURIOUS ABOUT SOME OF THE CURRENCY RISK OUT THERE. THE DOLLAR DEALS COMING INTO THAT SPACE.

这是你会预期迅速变化的事情,还是感觉像是一场缓慢的燃烧?杰瑞:事情发生得有多快?我认为它正在发生。它已经持续了一段时间。这是一个倡议。我认为大多数日本企业都在认真对待它。我们开始在报告的收益中看到它。罗曼:我对那里的一些汇率风险感到好奇。美元交易进入那个领域。

IS THAT WORRY YOU AT ALL? JERRY: THE CURRENCY MOVES? IT WAS NOT MANY YEARS AGO. WE WERE SITTING AROUND THAT LEVEL. NOW IT IS HIGHER. I THINK IT IS A FACTOR. I THINK THE WEAKENING OF THE CURRENCY IS CERTAINLY PART OF INFLATION. I THINK THESE THINGS ALL MANIFEST OVER TIME. BAILEY: HOW DO YOU THINK ABOUT THAT? HOW QUICKLY WILL YOU SEE THIS CHANGE IF THE YEN CONTINUES TO CHANGE? HOW DOES THAT IMPACT SOME OF THE HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS THAT PEOPLE HAVE BEEN HOPING TO BE DEPLOYED?

这让你担心吗?杰瑞:货币波动?那是很多年前的事了。我们曾坐在那个水平上。现在更高了。我认为这是一个因素。我认为货币贬值肯定是通货膨胀的一部分。我认为这些事情都会随着时间的推移而显现出来。贝利:你是怎么看待这个问题的?如果日元继续变化,你会多快地看到这种变化?这将如何影响人们一直希望部署的家庭储蓄?

JERRY: I THINK THE CORPORATE'S ARE MOVING FASTER THAN HOUSEHOLDS. THAT IS MY SENSE. WE HAVE A LOT OF ASSET MANAGEMENT COMPANIES LOOKING TO GO INTO JAPAN TO HARNESS SOME OF THIS. I THINK SOME OF THAT WILL CERTAINLY BE KEPT DOMESTICALLY. CERTAINLY A FAIR SHARE WILL LOOK OUT JAPAN AS WELL. ROMAINE: I HAVE TO ASK YOU ABOUT SOME OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONTROLS OUT THERE IN THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM. RIGHT BEFORE WE CAME ON HERE BLOOMBERG REPORTED THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN THIS WORLD.

杰瑞:我认为企业比家庭行动得更快。这是我的感觉。我们有很多资产管理公司正打算进入日本,以利用其中的一些机会。我认为其中一些肯定会保留在国内。当然,相当一部分也会看向日本以外。罗曼:我必须问你关于金融系统中的一些国际监管措施。就在我们来到这里之前,彭博报道了这个世界最新的进展。

AND SOME OF THE EXPOSURE THAT BANKS HAVE. MIZUHO BANK NOT NECESSARILY UNDER YOUR PURVIEW. THIS TO THIS HAVING EXPOSURE TO RADIAN. I AM WONDERING WHAT YOU ADD ALL KNOW OR HAVE LEARNED FROM THIS EPISODE? JERRY: I DON'T HAVE ANYTHING TO SAY ON THAT. ROMAINE: HAVE YOU BEEN INVOLVED IN THE DISCUSSIONS? JERRY: NO. ROMAINE: ARE THERE ANY ISSUES AS YOU GROW AND EXPAND INTERNATIONALLY AND THE REST OF THE FINANCIAL WORLD IS SO THAT THE CONTROLS THAT ARE IN PLACE RIGHT NOW ARE ENOUGH TO PROTECT INVESTORS?

以及银行的一些敞口。瑞穗银行不一定在你的管辖范围内。这涉及到对雷曼兄弟的敞口。我想知道你从这一事件中学到了什么或知道了什么?杰瑞:我对此没有什么可说的。罗曼:你参与了讨论吗?杰瑞:没有。罗曼:随着你在国际上增长和扩张,以及世界其余部分的金融状况,目前存在的监管措施是否足以保护投资者?

JERRY: I HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CONTROLS IN PLACE. BAILEY: HOW DO YOU THINK ABOUT THE DEALS THAT HAVE BEEN UNVEILED? HOW SOME OF THIS EXPOSURE HAS COME TO LIGHT? ARE THERE LEARNINGS AS WE SIT HERE? JERRY: DECADES PAST, YOU CAN LEARN A LOT. WHENEVER WE DO A DEAL THAT DOES NOT GO THE WAY WE EXPECT WE SIT BACK AND THINK ABOUT WHAT WE COULD'VE DONE DIFFERENTLY. I THINK EVERY BUSINESS DOES THE SAME THING. I DON'T THINK JAPANESE FIRMS ARE ANY DIFFERENT THAN THE U.S.

杰瑞:我对现有的控制措施非常有信心。贝利:您如何看待已披露的交易?部分风险敞口是如何浮出水面的?在此过程中有哪些经验教训?杰瑞:过去的几十年里,我们可以学到很多东西。每当我们的交易未按预期进行时,我们都会坐下来反思本可以采取哪些不同的做法。我认为每家企业都会这样做。我不认为日本企业与美国的有何不同。

FIRMS. ROMAINE: OUT TO WRAP THIS UP WITH THE EVOLUTION OF MIZUHO. OBVIOUSLY THE GREEN HILL DEAL. THAT REALLY CEMENTED YOUR POSITION. MAY BE POTENTIALLY A BIGGER PLAYER. HELPING THE CRAFT THOSE DEALS. WHAT IS NEXT FOR YOU AND WHAT YOU WANT TO SEE WITH THIS BUSINESS? JERRY: IT WILL BE THREE YEARS IN A COUPLE OF MONTHS. THAT HAS BEEN FANTASTIC FOR US. I THINK THIS YEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST REVENUES EVER. IN TERMS OF ADVISORY.

企业。罗曼:让我们围绕瑞穗的演变来总结这一话题。显然是格林希尔交易。这真正巩固了你的地位。可能成为一个更大的玩家。帮助策划这些交易。你和你的业务接下来会怎样?你希望看到什么?杰瑞:再过几个月就满三年了。这对我们来说非常棒。我认为今年的咨询业务收入将是史上最高。

ONLY SURPASSING LAST YEAR. IT IS NOT JUST ABOUT M&A FOR US. WE HAVE A FULL-SERVICE FIRM. IN THE AMERICAS WE ARE IN CAPITAL MARKETS. WE ARE IN DERIVATIVES. WE ARE IN M&A. WE ARE TOP 10. IT IS NOT JUST ABOUT M&A. THAT IS AN IMPORTANT PART OF WHAT WE DO BUT IT IS ACTUALLY GOING TO BE A MODEST PART OF WHAT WE DO. ROMAINE: WE REALLY APPRECIATE YOU COMING ON. THE PRESIDENT AND CEO OF MIZUHO SECURITIES USA.

仅超过去年。对我们而言,这不仅仅是关于并购。我们是一家全方位服务的公司。在美洲,我们涉足资本市场。我们涉足衍生品。我们涉足并购。我们排名前十。这不仅仅是关于并购。这是我们所做工作的重要一部分,但实际上它只占我们所做业务的相当小的一部分。罗曼:我们非常感谢您来到现场。您是瑞穗证券美国公司的总裁兼首席执行官。

原文超出正文长度上限,此处截断——上游还有内容,完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。

更进一步:量化金融体系

看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力

进入量化体系 →