卡塔尔央行行长:LNG设施损毁修复需2-3年,GDP因冲突收缩7%
Qatar Says LNG Damage May Take Years to Repair
中东地缘冲突直接冲击能源供给端,卡塔尔官方数据证实了LNG产能受损程度与经济收缩规模,为评估全球天然气定价中枢上移及中东主权基金流动性状况提供了关键一手事实,建议关注能源板块与相关宏观对冲策略。
David, already we've talked a lot today about how inflation is impacting the American economy, but, of course, it extends much further. We saw global central banks make moves this past week that signaled inflation is not anchored across the globe, and it's impacting markets everywhere. For more on that, we'd like to welcome his excellently, Sheikh Bandar bin Mohamed El-Thani. He's governor of the Qatar Central Bank and chairman of the Qatar Investment Authority.
So nice to have you with us. Thank you for having me. We were talking earlier about the impact this conflict has had on Qatar overall, but especially on your LNG facility, which, of course, was huge not only for your economy, but for global markets as well. I'm wondering if you have any updates on the capacity of that facility and just how you're looking at rebuilding if there's a timeline and a cost for repairing the damage that's been done in this conflict.
Actually, as you know that, the region, now, this situation, which is the conflict between United States Of America and, also Iran. And, also, we are facing the disruption in the Strait Of Hormuz that, you know, put a pressure on the energy prices as well as that we've been impacted, by the situation. And, you know, 17% of our revenue has been wiped out. And that's that's huge percentage. Yes. Yes. It is. The impact is is huge.
LNG facility has been attacked. The damage is huge and will take, as per the first estimation, like, two to three years to repair. However, the good news is that, you know, we've been working on the a new expansion, a new expansion that will, double our size of a production, and we will reach 145,000,000 tons a year by 2030. The first phase of the new expansion will start by 2027. As well as that, we already And that'll be operational in 2027, or that's the the build will start in 2027?
It's it will be the production will start by 2027, but everything depends on the also the development in the stratiformes as well and the development, the the situation development in the in the region. So that all, but the the the plan was to start, production, at 2027, the first phase, and we'll reach the maximum by 2030, which is one forty five million tons, a year. We talk a lot about, Qatar's deep reserves, the ballast that provides throughout a crisis like this one.
Yet we have seen cuts, government cuts already out of necessity. What does 2027 look like as you look at the the economy? Were things not to change, and we hope for some resolution of the conflict obviously here? But how long are you able to support, the the downturns that we've been talking about here? Yeah. Actually, to be very frank You are. We are in the region where, the war is existing, and that has impacted our economy.
We contracted by seven percent because of the war. The good thing is it's not a structure. It's because of the current situation. Also, here I want to add that if you look to the contraction, which is 7% of our GDP, then the non hydrocarbon grew by 3.5%. So the the the contraction came up from the hydrocarbon side, but non hydrocarbon is growing by 3.5%, and that's because of diversification of the economy. Our external fiscal position is very strong.
We have one of the largest, you know, sovereign wealth funds. Also, we have reduced our we have reduced our debt to GDP from 60% to 40%. Our government, they accumulated the surplus in the, in the Goodyears that, built a stabilization fund to support the economy and the government in such cases. So this is this is very good sign for our economy. Also, now the non hydrocarbon percentage of the GDP rose from 40% in 2011 to 70% recently.
So that is very positive for for the economy. We are still we've been affirmed as a double a double a country rating. Also, we have a large reserve in the Central Bank. So we have we believe that if the situation resolved in The Middle East, we will recover, and we will see more growth in the coming years. You do have a very large reserve, and a substantial amount of this is foreign currency reserves and liquidity. How much of that are you willing to to deploy in the near term to to fix some of those problems, to cushion some of those issues you're having until, hopefully, this conflict is over?
And how many of how much of that do you want to keep where it is for future generations? Actually, as I mentioned earlier, until now, the government did not rely on, Qatar Investment Authority for any support yet because the government built stabilization fund to support the economy for such a situation. It's one of our mandate is to support the government whenever they need it, but so far, there is no need to to do that.
And we have, as a board, we have instructed the QIA management to continue to continue investments, and we have participated in many investments so far, and we have also disclosed that in our website. So until now, there is no need to support the government. They are doing well. They can manage it, and KIA will continue to do their investment and to fulfill their commitments. I think there there was curiosity at the beginning if as a result of the conflict, the investments would be more internally focused, domestic investments versus external ones, and and we know from history just how widely that capital has been deployed globally.
Has that has that happened? Has the has the way that flows are going changed as a result of the conflict when it comes to the investment authority in particular? Actually, as you know, we look to our economy, and we care about our economy and also the growth of our economy. Today, I don't wanna say it now. You just wait, you will listen, and you will see some also announcement about new initiatives that the prime minister will will announce today.
You don't wanna preview a couple of them while we're here? You're gonna make us wait for the ballroom? Let's let's let's let's let's let's let's When you look at where the investment authority is looking to go next, are you going heavily towards AI? Are you going heavily towards investments that are less tangible and more easy to move around the world? Is factoring in at all? We have a clear strategy in the QIA. Have a diversified portfolio.
We don't, focus in just one sector. However, now it's, one of our major, you know, sectors that we are, we are investing in is, technology, AI. And, also, we continue to invest in other sector because we believe in diversification. We are long term investors. We are not short term. We are not there to invest and and make a profit and exit. We invest to stay for for longer for future generation. Part of your remit is regulation.
And and here in The US, there is this conversation about regulating AI, what needs to be done. How are you approaching that issue? How do you think about the need for a government to place guardrails around this new technology? I'm I'm a believer of regulation. You are? Yes. And she AI is important. It's the future, and we support this technology. We support the development of this technology, but we have to have a regulation, in place.
Regulation, it's govern, you know, it's it's gonna govern it. So it's good to have it. I'm with it, and, I'm sure that will be benefit for everybody. But it's very important also that the the regulation not to, let us say, slow down the the technology, but it's protect the technology. When you look at the growing competition between Chinese AI and American AI, is Qatar picking a side? We don't pick a side. We invest in, you know, for to to make profit and to stay longer.
So we are not picky, and we look to all the options in in in a place. However, most of our investments the largest portfolio of QIA is deployed in United States Of America because most of the innovation and the deep capital market is in The United States Of America. So we strongly believe also in the technology and the innovation in The United States. Maybe I could ask you lastly how you're using AI within
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