卡塔尔央行行长:LNG设施受损修复需2-3年,GDP因战收缩7%
LNG Damage May Take Years to Repair Qatar Says
提供中东地缘冲突对产油国实体资产与宏观基本面的具体量化影响(GDP、债务、产能),是评估能源供应链风险与主权信用敞口的关键一手数据。
David, already we've talked a lot today about how inflation is impacting the American economy, but, of course, it extends much further. We saw global central banks make moves this past week that signaled inflation is not anchored across the globe, and it's impacting markets everywhere. For more on that, we'd like to welcome his excellently, Sheikh Bandar bin Mohamed El-Thani. He's governor of the Qatar Central Bank and chairman of the Qatar Investment Authority.
大卫,我们今天已经谈了很多关于通胀如何影响美国经济的话题,但当然,其影响范围远不止于此。我们看到全球央行在过去一周采取行动,这表明通胀在全球范围内并未得到锚定,并且正在影响各地的市场。更多相关内容,我们欢迎卡塔尔中央银行行长兼卡塔尔投资局主席谢赫·班达尔·本·穆罕默德·阿勒萨尼阁下。
So nice to have you with us. Thank you for having me. We were talking earlier about the impact this conflict has had on Qatar overall, but especially on your LNG facility, which, of course, was huge not only for your economy, but for global markets as well. I'm wondering if you have any updates on the capacity of that facility and just how you're looking at rebuilding if there's a timeline and a cost for repairing the damage that's been done in this conflict.
很高兴您能与我们相聚。感谢您的到来。我们之前曾讨论过这场冲突对卡塔尔整体的影响,尤其是对您的液化天然气(LNG)设施的影响,该设施不仅对贵国经济至关重要,也对全球市场意义重大。我想知道您是否有任何关于该设施产能的最新消息,以及您如何看待重建工作?如果存在修复冲突造成损害的时间表和成本,也请分享一下。
Actually, as you know that, the region, now, this situation, which is the conflict between United States Of America and, also Iran. And, also, we are facing the disruption in the Strait Of Hormuz that, you know, put a pressure on the energy prices as well as that we've been impacted, by the situation. And, you know, 17% of our revenue has been wiped out. And that's that's huge percentage. Yes. Yes. It is. The impact is is huge.
实际上,如您所知,目前该地区局势——即美国与伊朗之间的冲突——以及霍尔木兹海峡的 disruptions(中断),给能源价格带来了压力,我们也受到了局势的影响。我们的收入中有 17% 被抹去,这是一个巨大的比例。是的,确实如此。影响是巨大的。
LNG facility has been attacked. The damage is huge and will take, as per the first estimation, like, two to three years to repair. However, the good news is that, you know, we've been working on the a new expansion, a new expansion that will, double our size of a production, and we will reach 145,000,000 tons a year by 2030. The first phase of the new expansion will start by 2027. As well as that, we already And that'll be operational in 2027, or that's the the build will start in 2027?
LNG 设施遭到袭击,损失巨大。根据初步估计,修复工作需要两到三年的时间。然而,好消息是,我们正在推进一项新的扩建计划,这将使我们的生产规模翻倍,到 2030 年将达到每年 1.45 亿吨。新扩建的第一阶段将于 2027 年开始。此外,我们已经……那将在 2027 年投入运营吗?还是说建设将在 2027 年开始?
It's it will be the production will start by 2027, but everything depends on the also the development in the stratiformes as well and the development, the the situation development in the in the region. So that all, but the the the plan was to start, production, at 2027, the first phase, and we'll reach the maximum by 2030, which is one forty five million tons, a year. We talk a lot about, Qatar's deep reserves, the ballast that provides throughout a crisis like this one.
生产将于 2027 年开始,但这同样取决于海峡局势的发展以及地区局势的发展。因此,所有这些都取决于上述因素。原计划是在 2027 年开始第一阶段的生产,并在 2030 年达到最大产能,即每年 1.45 亿吨。我们经常谈到卡塔尔深厚的储备,这些储备在类似这样的危机中提供了支撑。
Yet we have seen cuts, government cuts already out of necessity. What does 2027 look like as you look at the the economy? Were things not to change, and we hope for some resolution of the conflict obviously here? But how long are you able to support, the the downturns that we've been talking about here? Yeah. Actually, to be very frank You are. We are in the region where, the war is existing, and that has impacted our economy.
然而,我们已经看到了削减,政府出于必要已经实施了削减。展望2027年,经济状况会如何?如果情况不发生改变,我们当然希望这里的冲突能得到某种解决。但你们能够支撑多久我们所讨论的这种低迷期呢?是的。实际上,坦白说,你也是。我们处于战争持续存在的地区,这已经影响了我们的经济。
We contracted by seven percent because of the war. The good thing is it's not a structure. It's because of the current situation. Also, here I want to add that if you look to the contraction, which is 7% of our GDP, then the non hydrocarbon grew by 3.5%. So the the the contraction came up from the hydrocarbon side, but non hydrocarbon is growing by 3.5%, and that's because of diversification of the economy. Our external fiscal position is very strong.
由于战争,我们的经济收缩了7%。好消息是这不是结构性问题,而是由当前局势造成的。此外,我想补充一点,如果看我们的GDP收缩率为7%,那么非碳氢化合物部门增长了3.5%。因此,收缩主要来自于碳氢化合物方面,而非碳氢化合物部门以3.5%的速度增长,这是经济多元化的结果。我们的外部财政状况非常强劲。
We have one of the largest, you know, sovereign wealth funds. Also, we have reduced our we have reduced our debt to GDP from 60% to 40%. Our government, they accumulated the surplus in the, in the Goodyears that, built a stabilization fund to support the economy and the government in such cases. So this is this is very good sign for our economy. Also, now the non hydrocarbon percentage of the GDP rose from 40% in 2011 to 70% recently.
我们拥有全球最大的主权财富基金之一。此外,我们将债务占GDP的比重从60%降低到了40%。我们的政府在多年积累了盈余,建立了稳定基金,以便在类似情况下支持经济和政府。这对我们的经济是一个非常积极的信号。此外,如今非碳氢化合物部门占GDP的比重已从2011年的40%上升至最近的70%。
So that is very positive for for the economy. We are still we've been affirmed as a double a double a country rating. Also, we have a large reserve in the Central Bank. So we have we believe that if the situation resolved in The Middle East, we will recover, and we will see more growth in the coming years. You do have a very large reserve, and a substantial amount of this is foreign currency reserves and liquidity. How much of that are you willing to to deploy in the near term to to fix some of those problems, to cushion some of those issues you're having until, hopefully, this conflict is over?
因此,这对经济非常积极。我们仍被确认为双A级国家评级。此外,央行拥有大量储备。因此,我们相信如果中东局势得到解决,我们将实现复苏,并在未来几年看到更多的增长。你们确实拥有庞大的储备,其中相当一部分是外汇储备和流动性。在短期内,你们愿意动用多少来修复一些问题,缓冲你们面临的某些困难,希望这场冲突能早日结束?
And how many of how much of that do you want to keep where it is for future generations? Actually, as I mentioned earlier, until now, the government did not rely on, Qatar Investment Authority for any support yet because the government built stabilization fund to support the economy for such a situation. It's one of our mandate is to support the government whenever they need it, but so far, there is no need to to do that.
你们希望保留多少以备后代使用?实际上,正如我之前提到的,到目前为止,政府尚未依赖卡塔尔投资局提供任何支持,因为政府已建立稳定基金以应对此类情况下的经济支持。支持政府是我们的一项职责,无论何时需要我们都应提供支持,但迄今为止,还没有这样做的需求。
And we have, as a board, we have instructed the QIA management to continue to continue investments, and we have participated in many investments so far, and we have also disclosed that in our website. So until now, there is no need to support the government. They are doing well. They can manage it, and KIA will continue to do their investment and to fulfill their commitments. I think there there was curiosity at the beginning if as a result of the conflict, the investments would be more internally focused, domestic investments versus external ones, and and we know from history just how widely that capital has been deployed globally.
作为董事会,我们已指示QIA管理层继续投资。迄今为止,我们已参与多项投资,并在网站上进行了披露。因此,目前无需政府提供支持。他们运营良好,能够自行管理,KIA将继续进行投资并履行其承诺。起初人们曾好奇,受冲突影响,投资是否会更加侧重于内部或国内投资而非外部投资,而我们从历史中得知,资本在全球范围内的部署范围之广。
Has that has that happened? Has the has the way that flows are going changed as a result of the conflict when it comes to the investment authority in particular? Actually, as you know, we look to our economy, and we care about our economy and also the growth of our economy. Today, I don't wanna say it now. You just wait, you will listen, and you will see some also announcement about new initiatives that the prime minister will will announce today.
这种情况发生了吗?就投资当局而言,由于冲突,资金流向的方式是否发生了变化?实际上,如您所知,我们关注我们的经济,关心我们的经济及其增长。今天我不想现在说。您只需等待,您将听到并将看到一些关于首相今天将宣布的新举措的公告。
You don't wanna preview a couple of them while we're here? You're gonna make us wait for the ballroom? Let's let's let's let's let's let's let's When you look at where the investment authority is looking to go next, are you going heavily towards AI? Are you going heavily towards investments that are less tangible and more easy to move around the world? Is factoring in at all? We have a clear strategy in the QIA. Have a diversified portfolio.
既然我们在这里,您不想先透露其中几项吗?您让我们等到宴会厅吗?当您审视投资当局下一步的方向时,你们是否 heavily(大量)转向人工智能?是否 heavily 转向那些无形且更易于在全球范围内流动的投资?这是否在考量之中?我们在QIA有明确的战略。拥有多元化的投资组合。
We don't, focus in just one sector. However, now it's, one of our major, you know, sectors that we are, we are investing in is, technology, AI. And, also, we continue to invest in other sector because we believe in diversification. We are long term investors. We are not short term. We are not there to invest and and make a profit and exit. We invest to stay for for longer for future generation. Part of your remit is regulation.
我们不只专注于一个领域。然而,如今,我们要投资的主要领域之一是技术、人工智能。此外,我们继续在其它领域投资,因为我们相信多元化。我们是长期投资者,而非短期投资者。我们并非为了投资、获利后退出。我们投资是为了长期持有,惠及后代。您的职责范围包括监管。
And and here in The US, there is this conversation about regulating AI, what needs to be done. How are you approaching that issue? How do you think about the need for a government to place guardrails around this new technology? I'm I'm a believer of regulation. You are? Yes. And she AI is important. It's the future, and we support this technology. We support the development of this technology, but we have to have a regulation, in place.
在美国,人们正在讨论如何监管人工智能,需要做什么。您如何看待这个问题?您认为政府有必要为这项新技术设置护栏吗?我支持监管。您也这样认为?是的。人工智能很重要。它是未来,我们支持这项技术。我们支持这项技术的发展,但必须建立相应的监管制度。
Regulation, it's govern, you know, it's it's gonna govern it. So it's good to have it. I'm with it, and, I'm sure that will be benefit for everybody. But it's very important also that the the regulation not to, let us say, slow down the the technology, but it's protect the technology. When you look at the growing competition between Chinese AI and American AI, is Qatar picking a side? We don't pick a side. We invest in, you know, for to to make profit and to stay longer.
监管,它是治理,你知道的,它将会进行治理。所以拥有它是好的。我支持它,我相信这将对每个人都有利。但同样重要的是,监管不应——我们这么说吧——减缓技术的发展,而是保护技术。当你看到中国人工智能与美国人工智能之间日益激烈的竞争时,卡塔尔是否在选边站?我们不选边站。我们投资是为了获利并长期立足。
So we are not picky, and we look to all the options in in in a place. However, most of our investments the largest portfolio of QIA is deployed in United States Of America because most of the innovation and the deep capital market is in The United States Of America. So we strongly believe also in the technology and the innovation in The United States. Maybe I could ask you lastly how you're using AI within
所以我们并不挑剔,我们在各地审视所有选项。然而,我们大部分投资,即卡塔尔投资局(QIA)最大的投资组合,都部署在美国,因为大部分的创新和深厚的资本市场都在美国。因此,我们也强烈相信美国的技术和创新。最后我想问一下,你们如何在内部使用人工智能
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