美银策略师：柴油价高企推升通胀，美联储加息预期强化

Joining us now, Joe Quinlan. He's head of market strategy at Merrill and Bank of America private bank. Alright, Joe. I don't really know where to start. I guess I'm gonna ask you, what is your take? What does it say that the Fed decided to make this decision unanimously? Well, it shows you there's a united Fed in the sense that they're they're they're looking at inflation. They agree it's above target, obviously, and we got they gotta do more about it.

So I like that in that sense. So there wasn't much dissent at all, and it kinda sets itself for a further rate hikes coming down the pipe. So that's what I think it was a good tone, good backdrop, shows that the Fed's on the job. We had warriors earlier about this new chairman, but I think those worries are behind us. Joe, as the press conference unfolded, I was looking at the movement in bonds. I think that's kind of our inclination to do so, most of us.

And and yet we saw stocks I'm always looking at the bonds. I don't know about you. We we did see stocks sink during the course of his his commentary, and I'm I'm curious what this increase does mean for the stock market going forward, particularly if it's not one and done, if there there are more hikes to come. Well, I think well, the market's ready for more rate hikes, whether it's, you know, two more or three in the 2027.

We'll see. So they're they're parsing that data, but they're also the market's also looking at, you know, the the pressure that's coming from higher energy costs, what that can mean for profits. But the good news is you've got an economy right now, nominal terms expanding around 8%, real terms closer to 4%. So the market's equities in general are feeling okay about this cycle being higher rates because it's going into a very robust economy.

Could that weaken six months from now? We'll see. But we're starting off on strong footing, and that's keeping the market where it is by or near all time highs. I do wanna ask selfishly. We saw the thirty year mortgage rate is nearing 7%. It had the biggest weekly gain in a year. Do you think that will finally start to come down at some point? Am I ever going to be able to buy a house, or am I just gonna rent while David Gras sits here?

She's asking this of everybody, Joe. It's not just you. I I know David's got a 3% probably. Probably. Probably. Alright. What does this mean for me ever being able to afford a house or an apartment or something? It's gonna be tough for the housing market. No doubt about it. But, you know, 7% seems high historically. That's kind of the average close to you know, but we're we we were spoiled early on, particularly during the pandemic as David knows.

Mhmm. So, yes, but here's the key. The housing market's around 17% of GDP. That is definitely slowing or gonna go backwards. But we got other parts of the economy, very robust, energy, technology, financial services, transportation. So there's worries about a recession or continuing drag from housing, but it's not gonna really, I think, damage the overarching growth of The US economy. Joe, let let me turn back to what we saw in technology stocks.

And so the the week kicked off with a lot of fear and anxiety surrounding AI. I think there was an expectation going into Monday that might manifest itself some in those those talks stocks, the hyperscalers, other big tech stocks. Then we saw this reversal over the course of the week. What do you attribute that to? When you look, for instance, software stocks, for example, they they ended the week much higher than I think a lot of folks expected after a lot of anxiety about sort of the the death of software.

What what accounts for that? How how do you think the tech stocks are processing this kind of roiling conversation about, well, really, our our very existence that seems to have been having here over the last couple of days? Nice existential crisis on top of everything else. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, if we're if we're not gonna be here in 2030, you know, I guess go all in right now, so to speak. You know, listen. Our clients, you know, at the Merrill platform, when they see a pullback in tech in particular, they wanna buy it.

Right? Some of these companies are still attract they're attractively valued here. There's good long term prospects for productivity. Everyone's using technology. I think we're still early innings on the adoption, the productivity that comes with it. So we've noticed very clearly that when there's a tech pullback, whether it's software, some of the semiconductors, that's where people are leaning into and buying the dips.

And I think that continues. And I think, overall, there's there's still a good earnings backdrop in the '27 and '28. So this you know, it it hangs in there, and I don't think it's gonna go away anytime soon in terms of the upward momentum. Do you think you're gonna see a pivot? You know, you're having this group pause kind of, maybe a group time out, with all the big AI giants kind of reevaluating how they put guardrails on these things, whether or not they need oversight.

But there's also a financial element to this too, and that's the, you know, the self thinking models are not as profitable as the task based AI. Do you think that's part of it here, and do you think you'll see a shift more to the tokenization form of this technology so that they can profitize and and make back some of these huge CapEx expenditures they've been putting out? Yeah. That's a great question, and that's kind of front and center in terms of our conversations.

Like, what what does it look like in 2030? What's the earnings? But we could see something interesting evolve this week between president Trump and the Chinese leader Xi because, you know, the the the competition is really coming from China in terms of large language models. Can The United States and China kinda map out some regulatory backdrop that sets the global standards? That would be very interesting. That would have ramifications for the group.

But there's a still there's a lot of known unknowns in this space about profitability, usage, adoption, and I would say the Chinese competition because the large language models of China, they're they're being more embraced and used here in The United States, creating that competitive pressures. So a lot to talk through. Joe, I think Wall Street widely paying a lot more attention to energy than maybe folks would have in the the past.

It's kind of a niche thing. Commodity specialists and traders would have been into it, not not the rest of the crew. But here here we see oil prices playing such a huge role in the markets more broadly. And then when it comes to refined products, I I wanna get your sense of sort of what this uptick, this spike in diesel prices is gonna mean for various sectors, certain companies in particular. How worried about are you about that coming from a broader market perspective?

I'm I'm very concerned, David, in the sense that I just spent a lot of time in the Midwest talking to our a lot of the bank clients, aviation, truckers, you know, with the manufacturers, and that is their number one concern. It used to be immigration, the lack of workers, where's all the workers. Now it's the diesel cost. I mean, you'll get Russia, China, The US. It's you know, we the capacity isn't there. It's been taking offline, or China now is gonna pull back, restrict their refined exports.

So that's a real pain point, the diesel prices. And this is what Kevin Walsh and the Fed has to look at in terms of, like, okay. How do we get inflation to roll over? And it's been hard to bring inflation down when diesel prices are so elevated. But those prices I mean, this is not getting resolved anytime soon unless these leaders come here in New York, have some sort of great dinner, and I'll decide to fix this. It seems very unlikely.

You've you just mentioned and you've written, you know, US exceptionalism that The US economy has this ability to absor

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