日本央行加息至1.25% 美联储欧央行同月加息

Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Daybure podcast. Good morning. It's Friday the 18th of September. I'm Caroline Hefka in London. Coming up today, Japan hikes again as the world's major central banks turn back to inflation fighting. Why Europe keeps building border walls as governments struggle to contain pressure over migration. Plus, stitching together a comeback, London Fashion Week welcomes major designers as it looks to revive its global standing.

Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. For the first time ever, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan have all raised interest rates in the same month. The BOJ completed the trio this morning, lifting rates to 1.25% at its fastest pace of tightening since 1990. However, Bloomberg's David Savage says that the two board members voting against the hike could prove problematic for the Bank of Japan.

Yeah, I mean, I think particularly after how hawkish the Fed was. I I think the split vote is not going to make uh it is certainly going to challenge uh any recent yen strength we've seen. And so, we've already seen quite a reaction in dollar yen. And you know likely we might even you know see some steepening in the JGB curve which of course is in contrast to what we've seen in the US where the Treasury curve there has flattened quite a bit.

David Savage there the Bank of Japan move comes after the Bank of England's warning yesterday that it may have to follow suit while holding off on a hike for now. Driving the shift is the energy shock from the Iran war with oil still above $100 a barrel and keeping inflation pressures elevated. And while global borrowing costs have eased over the past 48 hours, investors are still betting that yields will remain high as interest rates stay higher.

Now in Europe, there's a warning that renewed inflation pressures could ultimately put economic growth at risk. ECB rate setter Anigman has told Bloomberg that policy makers need to bring inflation under control with price price growth already above 3%. we have the the data uh inflation which is really most important for us to uh to make any decision. So we are not going to uh make our decision based on the market expectations than on the expectations of the future move for inflation.

That is the Croatian central bank chief ant Jigman speaking there. Analysts see Euro area inflation heading towards 4% in the coming months as high energy prices feed through. Investors are pricing in at least three more rate hikes, which would take ECB policy well into restrictive territory. Britain's bond market, meanwhile, is becoming a major problem for Andy Burnham as he prepares for the government's first budget.

The prime minister once said that Britain needed to stop being quote in hawk to the bond markets, but borrowing costs remain substantially higher than when he took office two months ago. The Bank of England offered some relief yesterday by overhauling its bond sales. Governor Andrew Bailey also warned that high energy prices could make the inflation outlook worse.

It's still early days, so I'm not going to you give you any firm judgment as what's going to happen. So far, that feed through has been quite subdued, but it is early days. Now, unfortunately, the longer these high energy prices go on, the more difficult this becomes. and we flagged this very clearly today.

So that was Andrew Bailey speaking there. Well, the timing matters also because market rates over the next fortnite will help to determine the borrowing cost assumptions that are then used for the October budget. Economists estimate that Chancellor John Healey may already need to find 10 billion pounds through spending cuts or tax rises to stabilize the public finances. So those are all of the central bank moves. Now, Jeffrey Gundlac is warning that the next US economic downturn could trigger a debt crisis.

The CEO of Double Iron Capital, which manages almost hundred billion dollars in fixed income assets, says that bonds could sell off alongside stocks, upending their traditional role as a safe haven. Goodluck told CNBC that the US Treasury would likely step in before yields climbed too far. It's just too economically prohibitive for the Treasury. So, you got to pick a point. When are they going to when are they going to go big?

And when they go big, uh, you're going to have to you're going to get a big rally in the long bond. This is something I think about every single day. Like, what's the level? And what the market's telling you is so far the trend the trend is toward higher yields and the the Treasury Department is only kind of warming up the motor.

Jeffrey Goodlike. Um he also told CNBC that he is shifting towards low duration assets to protect against further interest rate increases. Now this is as more than 60% of respondents to Bloomberg's Markets Pulse survey said that they expect 10-year Treasury yields to end the year above 5%. The energy shock though that's driving those inflation fears is showing some signs of easing. Oil is falling for a third day with Brent trading around $104 a barrel as supply concerns ease.

But JP Morgan oil analysts say that it is increasingly impossible to predict how the war in the Middle East might end. They say that markets may be uh pricing an additional 4 million barrels a day of oil disruption. That's on top of the 10 million now. Bloomberg's executive editor for the Middle East and North Africa, Stuart Livingston Wallace, says that President Trump currently seems to be looking at diplomacy.

There is the issue of domestic fuel prices, uh the cost of this war, the optics of this war, you know, those will all constrain him. And I think certainly from the GCC side, that is the Gulf Arab States, one would presume they're going to be pushing for a more diplomatic solution because of the experience earlier on this year and and you know what a return to full-scale hostages might potentially mean for their economies in particular.

Stuart Livingston Wallace there on plans for US talks with Gulf nations next week and a core group of Iranian officials are being allowed into New York for next week's UN General Assembly. German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz says that the era of quote unconditional transatlantic friendship between Europe and the US is over for the foreseeable future. Mertz says that political attitudes towards the transatlantic alliance have changed under President Trump.

Now the comments come ahead of Sunday's Berlin state election with Mertz's Christian Democrats under pressure. Trump praised the farright AFD party after its shock victory in Saxony Anhalt earlier this month. Lastly, Exxon Mobile says the continued use of coal means that the world is on course for a sharp rise in global temperatures. It expects carbon emissions in 2050 will be almost three times the level needed to limit warm warming to the UN's twoderee target.

That forecast is about 10% higher than it was last year as the use of carbon capture and other emissions reducing technologies slows. Exon Mobile also expects global electricity demand to rise by 65% by 2050 with oil, gas and coal remaining major sources of energy. So that in what is very closely watched outlook from Exxon Mobile. So those are our top stories for you this morning. Let's look at the markets. Stocks in Asia are rallying.

MCI Asia Pacific Index up 8/10en of 1% after we saw the S&P 500 and NASDAQ in the US yesterday post their best day since early August. Uh also the yen extending declines this morning. European stock futures are down 310. But importantly in the Treasury markets you saw a rally across the yield curve yesterday. So we unwound a lot of the posted selloff. actually yields fell between five and nine basis points uh yesterday and looking at that benchmark 10-year Treasury yield this morning we are at 4.94% up one basis point but still well below 5%.

Those are the markets. Now in a