美债市场动荡：收益率飙升与赤字反弹
Why the Treasury Market is Even Shakier Than It Looks
美债收益率创多年新高且基本面恶化（赤字反弹+通胀粘性），直接影响全球资产定价锚。建议宏观与固收从业者关注美债流动性风险及利率走势变化。
As you might already know, the US bond market, otherwise known as the Treasury market, is having a torid time at the moment. The yield on US government bonds, which effectively reflects the annual interest rate that the US has to offer to attract creditors, has surged to multi-deade highs despite a series of increasingly desperate interventions by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant. The yield on 30-year bonds, for instance, which reflect the interest rate the US has to offer to borrow money for 30 years, touched 5.4% 4% a couple of days ago, its highest since 2004.
正如你可能已经知道的，美国债券市场，也就是国债市场，目前正经历一段动荡时期。反映美国为吸引债权人必须提供的年化利率的美国政府债券收益率，尽管美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessant）进行了一系列越来越绝望的干预，却已飙升至多年来的高位。例如，反映美国借入30年期资金所需利率的30年期债券收益率，几天前触及5.4%，创下2004年以来的最高水平。
Similarly, the yield on 10-year bonds touched 5% early this week, the highest since 2007. Obviously, this is bad news, at least from Scott Besson's perspective. However, dig a little deeper and it quickly becomes apparent the US Treasury market is even shakier than it already looks. So, in this video, we're going to take a look at this shakiness and explain why things could get worse before they get better. We believe that we aren't defined by our attempts towards perfection, but by our courage to be honest when we fail.
同样，10年期债券收益率在本周初触及5%，为2007年以来最高。显然，这是坏消息，至少从斯科特·贝森特的角度来看是这样。然而，深入挖掘一下很快就会发现，美国国债市场比表面看起来更加摇摇欲坠。因此，在本视频中，我们将审视这种不稳定性，并解释为什么情况在好转之前可能会变得更糟。我们相信，我们并非由追求完美的尝试所定义，而是由我们在失败时保持诚实的勇气所定义。
So, when we make mistakes, we have an entire policy designed around openly correcting them. Find out more about what we believe in our official manifesto. It's linked in the description of every one of our videos. So, as we see it, there are at least four reasons that you might want to be more worried about the Treasury market than you already are. The first is the budget. Everyone knows that the US is running a big budget deficit, but there was nonetheless a relatively widespread assumption, at least until a couple of weeks ago, that it was getting smaller relative to GDP.
因此，当我们犯错时，我们有一套专门围绕公开纠正错误而设计的政策。了解更多关于我们信仰的内容，请参阅我们的官方宣言。它链接在我们每个视频的说明中。因此，我们认为，至少有四个理由让你对国债市场的担忧程度超过你目前的担忧。第一个原因是预算。每个人都知道美国存在巨大的预算赤字，但尽管如此，直到几周前，人们仍相对普遍地认为，相对于GDP而言，赤字正在缩小。
The deficit for the fiscal year of 2025, which ran from October 2024 until September 2025, came in at 5.9% of GDP, down from 6.3% of GDP in 2024. And early this year, the CBO estimated that it will fall to 5.8% of GDP by 2026. Unfortunately for Trump and Besson, this looks wildly optimistic. With 11 years of the fiscal year gone, the deficit is currently up 4% compared to the same period last year when you account for timing shifts.
2025财年（从2024年10月持续到2025年9月）的赤字占GDP的5.9%，低于2024年的6.3%。今年年初，国会预算办公室（CBO）估计，到2026年赤字将降至GDP的5.8%。不幸的是，对于特朗普和贝森特来说，这看起来过于乐观了。在财年过去了11个月的情况下，考虑到时间推移的影响，目前的赤字较去年同期增长了4%。
This is in large part because of tariff refunds. As we detailed in previous videos, tariffs were previously making a meaningful contribution to America's public finances. However, since really May of this year, the Trump administration has been issuing refunds to affected businesses, which may be the main reason that year, the deficit has increased almost every month since. The Treasury has also been hurt by rising interest payments on the outstanding debt pile and a steep fall in corporation tax as a consequence of tax breaks on investments included in Trump's 2025 tax cuts.
这在很大程度上是因为关税退税。正如我们在之前的视频中详细说明的那样，关税此前曾为美国的公共财政做出了有意义的贡献。然而，自今年5月起，特朗普政府开始向受影响的企业发放退税，这可能是导致赤字几乎每月都在增加的主要原因。此外，由于未偿债务利息支出上升以及特朗普2025年减税政策中包含的投资税收优惠导致企业所得税大幅下降，美国财政部也受到了冲击。
The second reason on our list is inflation. Again, as you might already know, inflation has been running hot and above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for the entirety of Trump's second term. And this doesn't look likely to go away anytime soon given where oil prices are and the fact that Trum
我们列表中的第二个原因是通货膨胀。同样，正如您可能已经知道的那样，在整个特朗普第二届任期内，通胀一直居高不下，且高于美联储2%的目标。鉴于当前的油价水平以及特朗普……这一情况似乎不太可能很快消失。
更进一步：量化金融体系
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