美联储加息，特朗普表态支持Warsh但施压降息

ANNOUNCER: NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS. THIS IS "THE PULSE" WITH FRANCINE LACQUA. FRANCINE: MORNING AND WELCOME TO "THE PULSE." I'M FRANCINE LACQUA HERE IN LONDON. THE FED HAS VOTED UNANIMOUSLY TO DELIVER ITS FIRST RATE HIKE IN THREE YEARS WITH POLICYMAKERS SIGNALING ANOTHER INCREASE BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR AS INFLATION PRESSURES MOUNT. FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH REITERATED HIS COMMITMENT TO TACKLING PRICE PRESSURES.

THE PLAIN FACT IS THAT INFLATION IS TOO HIGH AND HAS BEEN FOR TOO LONG. INFLATION RISKS ARE TO THE UPSIDE WHILE LABOR RISKS ARE ROUGHLY BALANCED. THIS WILL SURPRISE YOU. I'M NOT IN THE FORWARD GUIDANCE BUSINESS. I'VE GOT NOTHING FOR YOU ON A DISCUSSION OF THE PRESIDENT. TRENDS MATTER. DATA POINTS ARE NOISY. DATA POINT DEPENDENCE IS A DANGEROUS PREOCCUPATION. IT'S NOT SOMETHING THAT CONCERNS ME. INDEPENDENT OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS ABOUT STAYING IN OUR LANE.

WE CARE VERY MUCH ABOUT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. THE ECONOMY HAS INDEED STRENGTHENED. UNDERLYING GROWTH IS HIGHER. INFLATION IS THE PROBLEM. FRANCINE: ALASTAIR, MARKET PRICING NOW SUGGESTS THAT IN OCTOBER HIKE IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. HOW LIKELY DOES BACK TO VACCINE?

TO BE HONEST, AFTER THE HAWKISH PERFORMANCE YESTERDAY, A LOT MORE LIKELY THAN THE DAY BEFORE. HE'S REALLY MADE IT CLEAR THAT HE VIEWS FINANCIAL CONDITIONS AS TOO EASY. THE FED HAS WORK TO DO ON INFLATION. THE ECONOMY IS STRONG. AND WHILE THE DOT PLOT SHOWED ONLY ONE MORE HIKE THIS YEAR, THERE WERE FOUR MEMBERS OF THE FOMC WHO HAD TWO MORE HIKE STYLED IN, SO I THINK THE MARKETS ARE PROPERLY REFLECTING THAT. BUT IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT RAISING INTEREST RATES SO CLOSE TO AN IMPORTANT ELECTION, MIDTERM ELECTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES WOULD BE A VERY HIGH BAR FOR ANY FED CHAIR UNDER ANY PRESIDENT, AND PARTICULARLY SO UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP WHO HAS MADE IT.

CLEAR THAT HE WANTS RATES TO GO LOW. I THINK THE CPI PRINT IN OCTOBER COULD GIVE WARSH SPACE TO ARGUE FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE PATIENCE BEING WARRANTED.

PRESIDENT TRUMP ALSO MAINTAINS THAT RATES SHOULD BE LOWER. HE AIMED HIS CRITICISM AT THE FED RATHER THAN THE CHAIRMAN. HE WAS ASKED IF HE STILL HAS COMPETENCE IN KEVIN WARSH. HERE HE IS.

YEAH, I DO. I'M RELYING ON KEVIN BUT HE'S GOT A VERY TOUGH WORK. A BOARD WAS PUT HERE BY A LOT OF OTHER PEOPLE AND THE INTEREST RATES ARE TOO HIGH. THEY ARE NOT APPROPRIATE. I TALKED TO KEVIN AND I SAID YOU MIGHT AS WELL VOTE WITH THE BOARD BECAUSE IT'S NOT GOING TO MATTER. FRANCINE: THIS IS VERY DIFFICULT TO NAVIGATE. AS KEVIN WARSH RESTORED CREDIBILITY?

HE DID AT HIS PRESS CONFERENCE AND THEN THE PRESIDENT TOOK IT RIGHT BACK. EVERY TIME PRESIDENT TRUMP COMES OUT AND SAYS WARSH IS A GOOD GUY BUT HE'S GOT TO DEAL WITH A HOSTILE BOARD, THAT MAKES IT HARDER FOR THE MARKET TO REALLY BELIEVE IN THE CREDIBILITY OF THE FED. IT IS CHIPPING AWAY AT THE INDEPENDENCE OF THE FED. LET'S NOT FORGET THE PRESIDENT IS TAKING AIM AT GOVERNOR LISA COOK, TRYING TO GET HER FIRED FROM THE BOARD.

HIS JUSTICE DEPARTMENT HAS LEFT OPEN THE DOOR TO GOING AFTER FORMER FED CHAIR AND CURRENT GOVERNOR JEROME POWELL. BOTH OF THOSE ACTIONS ARE DIRECT ATTACKS ON THE INDEPENDENCE OF THE FED. SO I YOU GOT THAT CONVERSATION CIRCULATING, YOU HAVEN'T REALLY SECURED CONFIDENCE AROUND THE INSTITUTION, EVEN THOUGH WARSH HIMSELF HAS DEFIED THE PRESIDENT BY COMING OUT AND RAISING RATES AND LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN TO DOING MORE.

THANK YOU SO MUCH. THE VERY LATEST ON THE FED AND CENTRAL BANKS AT LARGE WITH CHIEF EUROPEAN ECONOMIST AT GOLDMAN SACHS. THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE. IT WAS INTERESTING BECAUSE IT DID FEEL LIKE KEVIN WARSH WAS BACK IN CHARGE AND KNEW WHAT HE WAS DOING AND THE MESSAGING WAS CLEAR.

I THINK THE MESSAGE WAS QUITE CLEAR. HE WAS QUITE HAWKISH ON A NUMBER OF ASPECTS. FIRST OF ALL, THERE WAS NOT ANY DISSENT FROM THE DECISION ITSELF. THE DOTS MOVED UP TO SHOW ANOTHER HIKE THIS YEAR. ALSO MOVED UP IN OUTER YEARS SUGGESTING THE FOMC AS A WHOLE IS LEANING TOWARD MORE RESTRICTIVE STANCE. OF COURSE, SOME OF HIS COMMENTS ON ACCOMMODATION DEWPOINT IN THE DIRECTION THAT THERE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE. SO AFTER YESTERDAY'S COMMUNICATION, WE ADDED ANOTHER HIKE BETWEEN NOW AND OCTOBER.

FRANCINE: WAS THIS ALWAYS GOING TO PUT MORE PRESSURE ON THE BANK OF ENGLAND? AT THE MEETING TODAY, YOU'RE PROBABLY NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING, BUT DO THEY HAVE TO COMMUNICATE TOWARD A POSSIBLE HIKE?

I THINK TODAY, MOST LIKELY THEY LEAVE RATES ON HOLD. THAT IS PRETTY WIDELY EXPECTED. BUT YES, I THINK THEY WILL FLAG THAT RISKS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE ENERGY SIDE TO THE INFLATION OUTLOOK WHICH IS QUITE CLEAR. ALSO SOME OF THE GROWTH NUMBERS IN THE U.K. HAVE BEEN BETTER, SO I THINK THAT WOULD BE VERY CLEARLY FLAGGED. AT THE SAME TIME, IT IS STILL TRUE THAT THE LABOR MARKET IS WORSENING. IT'S ALSO TRUE THAT FINANCIAL CONDITIONS IN THE U.K.

HAVE BEEN TIGHTENING. LONG-TERM YIELDS OF COURSE HAVE RISEN. THAT IS WHY WE DON'T THINK THEY MOVE TODAY, BUT I DO THINK IT IS GOING TO BE A BIT MORE CONCERN AROUND WHAT THIS ALL MEANS FOR THE INFLATION OUTLOOK. WE DO THINK THEY GO AT THE NOVEMBER MEETING. I WOULD SAY THE FACT THAT ALL OF THE MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS SEEM TO BE MOVING HERE PROBABLY MATTERS A LITTLE BIT ALSO AT THE END OF THE DAY. FRANCINE: NO ONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO GIVE ME A READING.

SHOULD WE GET IT BACK ON THE TABLE? I KNOW IT'S DIFFICULT, THAT IT WOULD GUIDE US BETTER.

IT WOULD. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME COMMENTS HERE AND THERE, ALWAYS WITH A WIDE RANGE. U.K. NOMINAL TERMS IS AROUND 3%, SO WE CONTINUE TO THINK THAT THE CURRENT POLICY SETTING IS ACTUALLY RESTRICTIVE, AND I THINK YOU CAN SEE THAT IN THE LABOR MARKET. I THINK YOU CAN ALSO SEE THAT IN THE FACT THAT PRIOR TO THE IRAN WAR, THERE WAS CLEAR DISINFLATION GOING ON IN WAGES AND UNDERLYING AND PATIENT SO I THINK WE ARE RESTRICTED.

BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WE DO HAVE THESE ADDITIONAL INFLATION RISKS HERE, THAT IS WHY WE THINK THEY HIKE IN NOVEMBER. BUT WE ONLY THINK THEY HIKE ONCE. WE DO ACTUALLY THINK THAT LATER IN 2027, THEY WILL START TO MOBILIZE AGAIN BECAUSE I DON'T THINK THEY WOULD KEEP RATES WHERE THEY CURRENTLY ARE, LET ALONE AT 4.5%.

IF YOU LOOK AT THE ECB, EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON THE PRICE OF OIL. WE UNDERSTAND THAT IT WAS REALLY CHINA'S DEMAND THAT KIND OF KEPT THESE LOWER PRICES. DOES IT MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE ECB?

IT DOES. THE MOVES WE SEEN IN ENERGY PRICES IS VERY HIGH. THEY'RE NOT TYING THEMSELVES DOWN. AT THE SAME TIME, IT IS VERY STRIKING HOW MARKET PRICING FOR HIKE HAS MOVED IN LOCKSTEP WITH GAS PRICES AND I ACTUALLY THINK THAT SENSITIVITY IS TOO HIGH HERE. IT MAKES SENSE THAT THERE IS SOME SENSITIVITY, BUT MY SENSE IS THAT THE IDEA THAT THE ECB HIKES TO 3.5% OR EVEN STEPS OF THE PACE FOR BOTH OCTOBER AND FEBRUARY THAT WITHOUT PROJECTIONS THEY WOULD HIKE.

AT THE END OF THE DAY, THE INFLATION PRESSURES THAT MATTER ARE THE UNDERLYING PRESSURES. THE OUTLOOK FOR WAGE GROWTH. IN WHAT WE ARE SEEING THERE IS ACTUALLY STILL QUITE BENIGN. OUR VIEW IS THE ECB WILL BE ONE MORE STEP IN THE DECEMBER. OF COURSE IF SOMETHING CHANGES THEY COULD GO HIGHER, BUT AGAIN, GOING TO 3.3% SEEMS LIKE A LOT TO ME ON CURRENT INFORMATION. FRANCINE: STAY RIGHT THERE BECAUSE WE WILL GET BACK TO YOU WHEN WE TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT TRADE.

PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS HE WILL CONSIDER IMPOSING SERIOUS TARIFFS OR STOP TRADING WITH EUROPE IF THE E.U. ADMITS CANADA AS AN ASSOCIATE MEMBER.

CANADA HAS BEEN A TERRIBLE TRADE PARTNER. NO, I DON'T SEE THAT. IF I THINK IT IS AT ALL A HOSTILE ACT I WILL PUT VERY SERIOUS TARIFFS OR STOP TRADING WITH EUROPE ON MANY THINGS. FRANCINE: I MEAN, A HOSTILE ACT IS REALLY WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS FOCUSING ON. WITH BRINGING KNOWLEDGE OR CROOK IN DUBLIN. HOW DO WE EXPECT THE NEW TO RESPOND TO THIS LATEST THREAT?

THAT IS REALLY THE CONVERSATION WE WILL BE HAVING WITH FINANCE MINISTERS AND CENTRAL-BANK GOVERNORS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. YOU HEARD IT FROM THE PRESIDENT SAYING THAT IF HE DETERMINES THAT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE EUROPEANS AND THE CANADIANS, THE SO-CALLED ASSOCIATE MEMBERS