美银CEO：三季度交易收入持平，AI部署超4亿美元

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I am here with Brian Moahan. Brian, thank you so much for joining. Great to see you today.

It's great to see you again, Danny.

And I want to start just cuz you did make a little bit of news just moments ago speaking at this conference saying that you expect trading to be flat for the for this current quarter. And I wonder just what has changed in the environment because we obviously saw just such a big second quarter in this high water mark. what what has sort of changed in the overall trading landscape.

So I think just to keep a perspective, if we end up with a quarter of what we just said flat, it'll be one of the best third quarters that uh we've ever had in the in the trading history of the company. So but what happens at change? So last year's second quarter was liberation day 25. This year's second quarter compared to that was up a lot in trading and and investment banking things like that. Last year's third quarter was a recovery quarter from liberation day quarter and the tariffs coming in.

I know it's hard to remember that far away, but all of us are running around saying, "Oh my gosh, the economy is going to stop cold." Third quarter, oh, it got understandable, easier. Everything kicked back in. So now you're comparing that quarter with this year's third quarter. This year, then the AI trade came in and you guys report about Korea and the leverage and all that stuff and all of it, a lot of it's come out of the system because people brought the risk down.

And when you put that together, just the sheer volume activities. Now, equities is up more and fixed income is bouncing around a little bit down and that ends up to flattish and but the team and Dennis and Sufi and then uh uh Jimmy's leadership the team is doing a great job. It's just sometimes the market quits doing things and that's one of these times now the pipeline investment banking's full the activity level is strong but with rates moving up you know 100 basis points over a short period of time people pause a little bit and you know leverage coming out of the system for a while.

Do you think that that pause and a more again relatively flat environment extends through the end of the year as well into Q4?

I think as as soon as we get some stability around uh the rate structure I mean they got the Fed meeting this week and sort of what what people get a common view of that then the rates will settle in some point and I think that'll help some of the trading activity. We've got a lot of pipeline IPOs secondary offerings things coming on that we know will go through. But on the debt financing side, which is a big part of the activity, the the issue is is that you got to have a rate structure that's not bouncing around so people can feel comfortable.

They can commit the issue into it an issue a week later, a few days later. So, um, it's good, but the Ye activity is strong. The conversations are strong and we're, you know, flattish, you know, it's it's it's 5 billion plus in revenue. It's good. And now the West management revenue will be up 10 to 15%. So, you're you're trying to say to people, you know, we're 60% core net interest income. That's fine. It's doing everything we thought we'd do.

We are managing expenses well. The credit quality of the firm's good. The consumers are spending. It's just that the trading activity was such explosive in the second quarter. Of course, when it mitigates, it feels a little bit strange, but then it'll get back and grow from here.

It's maybe a good problem to have, Brian, when you set the high water mark that high that you can't get back there. So, fair to say ramps back up fourth quarter. That's kind of what what I'm hearing from.

Yeah. And we'd expect that the activity will settle in and and and you got

the summer's a summer and we lose a lot of activity in August anyway. But but and that's not it's always traditional second to third quarter comes down.

It's a comparison last year that's kind of got

so so part of what we saw in the second quarter of this trading bloke but a lot was around the AI trade and situational awareness and I wonder how you've rethought things obviously Bank of America acting as a prime brokerage for situational awareness. Have any has anything changed post

that whole blow up? We always look back at everything and without getting any clients, but you should you should assume that we have good risk manager practices then and now. We made a lot of money second quarter. We made money all every day. This thing the team does a very good thing, but that doesn't mean it won't change the environment pretty quickly when the world changes around it.

I mean, the world is changing around us every day, Brian. And just sort of on a bigger scale, the concerns around AI have reached a fever pitch. I mean, you've not been shy about expressing your own concerns. I know you were on Bloomberg in July saying, "I'm worried about, you know, structurally the impact AI could have." Now, we're talking about humanity itself. Brian, as as a corporate leader, as someone who is helping to implement AI in both your company and fund the trade more broadly, are are you worried about the path that we're headed down right now?

Well, last week I was on one of your competitor shows and they and they asked me the question, should they slow down? And I said, I think they should slow down, but you know, I'm not I'm not the person running these companies. They have now said they should slow down. So I think this interesting you basically had the analogy I said to somebody we were talking with someone today was you have the NASCAR drivers saying please slow down the cars and the question is who's going to decide how you slow them down.

Should it be the government you know the governing body the Congress in this case the administration should it be the private sector say wait a second you've got to slow this down because if you're selling this product that has these impacts we can't use it um or whether it's society at large. So, but the the good news is um everybody sees that the pace of this change has to be absorbed and I think that's what you heard from the leaders that are just unbelievable companies, unbelievable at this said the pace has to slow down.

Um and in that we have to make sure that we don't put an agent out there that can act on its own. That's far different than using AI in a controlled environment. When you say when you put an auto a completely autonomous agent out there, that's that that's the big concern. Can it cause problems in hacking? Yeah, that's sort of the questions of mythos and things like that. Or could it cause questions by ganging up with other people?

That's what you've been reading about in the papers. So, I think they're wiser saying, "Hey, we we have a great product here. Let's not gum it up by having it do some things that cause an overregulation." I

I wonder though how you see your own role in this and your peers cuz you might not be building the things, but you're helping finance build the AI ecosystem. So, does the financial services industry have a role here too to make sure this is developed in an ethical way?

Well, you've got the other thing is we're a major user of it. So if there's going to be a revenue stream, these companies are going to come from companies like ours. So we deployed $400 million plus in AI capabilities this year. We're going to deploy more than that next year. It works. Our Erica we developed 10 years ago. So we believe in the power of digital manipulation of of of of data and information and process and all believe it's our core.

And that's not a question. The question is got we believe as a company we have to give the right answer. If you went into Erica and used it and we gave you the wrong answer, not a great client experience. So we are careful that we deploy it with the controls, the people in the loo

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