摩根大通CEO预计三季度交易收入持平

Jess, thank you so much. That's right. I am here with Brian Moynihan. Brian, thank you so much for joining. Great to see you today. It's great to see you again, Dani. And I wanna start just because you did make a little bit of news just moments ago speaking at this conferencing that you expect trading to be flat for the for this current quarter. And I wonder just what has changed in the environment? Because we obviously saw just such a big second quarter in this high watermark.

What what has sort of changed in the overall trading landscape? So I think, Doug, to keep a perspective, if we end up with a quarter of what we just said flat, it'll be one of the best third quarters that, we've ever had in the in the trading history of company. So but what happens to change? So last year's second quarter was liberation day twenty five. This year's second quarter compared that was up a lot in trading and and investment banking, things like that.

Last year's third quarter's was a recovery quarter from liberation day quarter and the tariffs coming in. I know it's hard to remember that far away, but all of us are running around saying, oh my gosh. The economy is gonna stop cold. Third quarter, oh, it got understandable, easier. Everything kicked back in. So now you're comparing that quarter with this year's third quarter. This year, then the AI trade came in, and if if you guys report about Korea and the leverage and all that stuff, and all of us a lot of us come out of the system because people brought the risk down.

And when you put that together, just the sheer volume activities. Now equities is up more and fixed income is bouncing around a little bit down, and that ends up to flattish. And but the team and Dennis and Sophie and then Jimmy's leadership, the team is doing a great job. It's just sometimes the market quits doing things, and that's one of these times. Now the pipeline investment banking's full. The activity level is strong, but with rates moving up, know, 100 basis points over a short period of time, people pause a little bit and, you know, leverage coming out of the system for a that that pause in a more, again, relatively flat environment extends through the end of the year as well into q four?

I think as as soon as we get some stability around the rate structure, I mean, they got the Fed meeting this week and sort of what what people get a common view of that, then the rates will settle at some point. I think that'll help some of the trading activity. We've got a lot of pipeline IPOs, secondary offerings, things coming on that we know will go through. But on the debt financing side, which is a big part of the activity, the the issue is is that you gotta have a rate structure that's not bouncing around so people can feel comfortable they commit the issue into it, an issue a week later, a few days later.

So it's good. But the M and A activity is strong. The conversations are strong. We're, you know, flattish. You know, it's it's it's 5,000,000,000 plus of revenue. It's good. If and now the West management revenue will be up 10 to 15%. So you're you're trying to say to people, you know, we're 60% core net interest income. That's fine. It's doing everything we thought we'd do. We our manager expenses while the credit quality of firm's good.

The consumers are spending. It's just that the trading activity was such explosive in the second quarter. Of course, when it mitigates, it feels a little bit strange, but then it'll get back and grow from here.