美债收益率逼近5%全球债券抛售加剧通胀担忧

OLIVER: THIS IS BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE. THE BOND SELLOFF GATHERS PACE. OIL SURGES AS THE U.S. 10 YEAR YIELD CLOSES IN ON 5%. THE HOUSE WINS BUT CAN THE TREASURY? THE FED IS ON DECK AFTER A HIKE IN SEPTEMBER. MARKETS REPRICED THE FUTURE IN EUROPE. THE FED AND BOND MARKET HANG ON THE U.S. CPI PRINT. SAM ALTMAN CONSIDERS SLOWING DEVELOPMENT OF PIONEER BOTTLES AND CORD NATION WITH OTHER AI LABS. CAN THE AI ARMS RACE REALLY DE-ESCALATE?

HAPPY FRIDAY MORNING. WE HAVE A LOT TO GET THROUGH THIS HOUR. BEGINNING WITH THE CROSS ASSET PICTURE HERE. BRENT CRUDE THIS MORNING TRAINING A LITTLE BIT SOFTER. THAT MASKS THE MOVE THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY, TO THE UPSIDE ON 8%. 109. WE ARE TRADING AT 107. LOOKING AT THE U.S. TREASURY CURVE. THAT'S WHERE WE FINALLY YIELD ON THE U.S. TWO-YEAR THIS MORNING. U.S. 10 YEAR, 4.95%. JUST A MOMENT TO HANG ON THE MARKET ACTION WE SAW YESTERDAY.

A MASSIVE DAY OF REPRICING. TREASURY YIELDS UP BY 12 BASIS POINTS. GERMANY UP SIX BASIS POINTS. FRANCE UP 10 BASIS POINTS. A LOT FOR THE MARKET TO DIGEST. GET A LOT FOR THE EQUITY MARKET TO DIGEST THIS MORNING. MSCI PACIFIC ASIA INDEX DOWN 1.5%. EURO STOXX 50 TRADING DEAD FLAT. S&P FUTURES A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THIS MORNING, BUY ONE FOR OF 1%. WE ARE PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE RISK EVENTS THIS MORNING. U.K. JULY GDP FIGURES, CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE UNITED KINGDOM.

IEA OIL MARKET REPORT. THE MAIN EVENT OF THE DAY, THE AUGUST U.S. CPI PRINT. 1:30 U.K. TIME. LET'S GET INTO IT. ♪ RISING ENERGY PRICES WEIGHING ON ASIAN STOCKS AND BONDS THIS MORNING. LET'S SEE HOW MARKETS ARE FARING WITH WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG. WINNIE: WE ARE SEEING ASIAN MARKETS CONTINUE TO FEEL PRESSURE FROM HIGHER OIL PRICES. ESCALATING TENSIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. INFLATION CONCERNS. YOU CAN SEE MSCI ASIA IS DOWN ABOUT 1.6%.

HAVING ITS WORST DAY IN MORE THAN A WEEK WITH TECH SHARES LEADING LOSSES. TECH GAUGES IN JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA DOWN MORE THAN 2%. WHEN IT COMES TO KOREAN CHIPMAKERS, ALL OF -- ALSO FEELING THE HEADWIND FROM THE NEW MODEL FROM DEEPSEEK. TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THESE TECH SHARES. THIS MODEL FROM DEEPSEEK IS KNOWN TO BE MORE EFFICIENT AND CHEAPER. THE PERFORMANCE AS A IS ACTUALLY OUTPERFORMING COMMUNIQUE THREE. STILL NOT AS GOOD AS THE LIKES OF OPENAI AND ANTHROPIC.

THE HIGHER EFFICIENCY IS COMING THROUGH AS IT REQUIRES LESS HIGH-BANDWIDTH MEMORY. THAT'S WHY YOU CAN SEE MEMORY CHIPMAKERS UNDER A BIT OF PRESSURE. INVESTORS ARE SAYING THAT IN THE LONGER TERM, THIS MIGHT ACTUALLY MEAN THAT THERE WILL BE MORE ADOPTION OF THESE MODELS. HENCE TODAY MIGHT BE MORE OF A SENTIMENT HIT, GIVEN THE MACRO HEADWINDS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT. WHEN IT COMES TO THE CHEAPER EQUATION, IT'S ALSO HURTING COMPETITORS.

GIVEN THAT THE PRICE WAR AMONG THESE MAKERS ARE LIKELY GOING TO CONTINUE. WE SHOOT OUT AGAIN. HIGHER, CHECKING THE MOVES WE SAW IN THE U.S. TREASURIES OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE DISAPPOINTMENT WHEN IT COMES TO TREASURY BUYBACKS. FROM AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND, TO JAPAN, ALL HIGHER WITH THE THREE YEAR YIELD IN AUSTRALIA HITTING ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2011. WE DID HAVE HOT PPI PRINT. REALLY ALL EYES ARE ON THE UPCOMING U.S. CPI NUMBERS WHICH IS LIKELY GOING TO GIVE US A LOT CLEARER DIRECTION IN TERMS OF THE FED RATE HIKE PATH GOING FORWARD.

BACK TO YOU, OLLIE. OLIVER: WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG. THANK YOU FOR THE ROUNDUP THIS MORNING. MASSIVE 24 HOURS OF REPRICING ACROSS THE GROVE YESTERDAY. THE BOND MARKET FRONT AND CENTER. U.S. 10 YEAR YIELD APPROACHING 5% THERE AGAIN NEAREST LEVEL THAT WE'VE SEEN SINCE LAST TIME, SINCE 2007. THAT'S ON ENERGY PRICES AND FEEL PRICES. FUELING INFLATION FEARS ACROSS THE WORLD. IT'S THE STORY IN EUROPE AND IN THE UNITED STATES.

LET'S GET MORE WITH DAVID SAVAGE. THIS IS COMING AT A TIME WHEN YOU HAVE THIS MASSIVE INFLATION CONCERN. YOU HAVE SCOTT BESSENT TRYING TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE BOND MARKET. THESE NEW AND CREATIVE WAYS. SAYING THAT POTENTIALLY SOME OF THE BLOOMBERG TERMINAL BROS MIGHT HAVE BEEN UNHAPPY WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE BOND MARKET YESTERDAY AND ADJUSTING THE PRICING. DO THEY HAVE A RIGHT TO BE UNHAPPY?

GOOD MORNING. I HAD NOT HEARD THAT TERM. ULTIMATELY, TO STEM THE RISE IN LONGER-TERM BOND YIELDS WHICH ULTIMATELY SEEMS TO BE THE TREASURY SECRETARY, YOU NEED TO SEE PROGRESS TOWARDS A MORE SUSTAINABLE SITUATION. WITH WHERE CRUDE PRICES AND COMMODITY PRICES ARE GOING, THEY ARE NOT LEFT WITH MANY TOOLS TO ACCOMPLISH THAT. OUTSIDE OF SEEING HIGHER POLICY RATES TO REBUILD THAT CREDIBILITY, THAT THEY WILL BE SERIOUS ABOUT THE RISE IN INFLATION EXPECTATIONS WHICH ARE PUSHING UP BOND YIELDS GLOBALLY.

NOT TOO MANY OPTIONS. THAT'S WHY YOU ARE SEEING NOT JUST IN THE U.S. BUT GLOBALLY, RATE EXPECTATIONS. OLIVER: THINKING ABOUT THOSE RATE EXPECTATIONS, WE ARE WATCHING CLOSELY THE PRINT COMING OUT LATER TODAY. WHAT LEVEL DO YOU NEED TO HIT ON CPI TO BASICALLY LOCK IN A HIKE NEXT WEEK? ALTERNATIVELY, IS THERE GOING TO BE AMBIGUITY?

YEAH. I THINK THE RISK IS REALLY ASYMMETRIC AT THIS POINT. IF YOU GET A SOFT PRINT, IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR POLICYMAKERS WHO ARE LEANING ON NEAR-TERM INFLATION PRINTS. THEY WANT TO SEE PROGRESS TOWARDS 2% INFLATION. BEING SHOWN, BEING DEMONSTRATED. GIVEN THE RISING CRUDE PRICES WE'VE SEEN THIS WEEK WHERE BOND YIELDS ARE MOVING, IT'S HARD TO LEAN ON THE AUGUST PRINT TO SUGGEST THAT WE ARE MAKING PROGRESS TOWARDS THAT 2% TARGET.

I DON'T THINK THAT'S REALLY IN THE CARDS. THEREFORE IF YOU GET A HOT PRINT, YOU KNOW EVEN BEFORE WE HAD THE SURGE IN CRUDE PRICES, INFLATION WAS MOVING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. THAT'S REALLY THE CHALLENGE. GIVEN WHERE THE MARKET BASICALLY HAS 70% ODDS FOR THE HIKE NEXT WEEK, THERE IS CERTAINLY ROOM FOR THAT TO FIRM FURTHER ON THE BACK OF A HOT PRINT LATER TODAY. OLIVER: DAVID SAVAGE, THANK YOU FOR THAT ANALYSIS. LOOKING AHEAD TO THAT ALL-IMPORTANT CPI PRINT LATER TODAY.

CRUCIAL TO THAT CONVERSATION WILL BE THE ACTION IN THE COMMODITY MARKET. OIL HOLDING AT ELEVATED LEVELS THIS MORNING AS FIGHTING INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST. IRAN AND GULF STATES WILL MEET ON MONDAY TO PUSH FOR HORMUZ DEAL. THE U.S. AROUND MORE REMAINS AT A STALEMATE WHILE IN YEMEN, IRAN BACKED FOR CHOSE -- FORCES ARE ADVANCING TOWARDS SAUDI ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. LET'S BRING IN BEN SHARPLES. THANK YOU FOR TALKING US THROUGH THE ACTION THIS MORNING.

TAKE US THROUGH THE LATEST DEVELOPMENT ON THE GROUND. ARE THOSE DEVELOPMENTS WHAT IS DRIVING THE PRICE ACTION OR IS THIS NEW PRICING ON WHAT THE NEW NORMAL LOOKS LIKE?

YEAH. IT'S BEEN QUITE A WEEK FOR OIL. WE ARE BACK ABOVE $100 A BARREL FOR BOTH BENCHMARKS, BRENT AND WTI. BRENT ALMOST TOUCHED $110 PER BARREL. THAT PUTS PRICES AROUND A FOUR-MONTH HIGH. THE LATEST IS THAT WHO SEE GAINING GROUND. TOWARD THE SOUTHERN RED SEA. THAT JUST ADDS TO THE ESCALATION THAT WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST THIS WEEK. U.S. ATTACKING A RAINY AND TINKERS. HOUTHIS ATTACKING SAUDI INFRASTRUCTURE.

IT'S ALL ABOUT SUPPLYING AT THE MOMENT. WHETHER THAT EXTENDS, DEEPENS DISRUPTIONS. WE ARE SEEING STUFF COME OUT OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THERE HAVE BEEN TANKERS CARRYING CRUDE. THAT HAS HELD PRICES LOWER THAN $100. NOW WE ARE SEEING AN ESCALATION AND PERHAPS PRICES MOVING EVEN HIGHER FROM HERE. OLIVER: THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE, WHAT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER? WHERE DO YOU THINK THE UPPER BAND IS ON BRENT AT THE MOMENT?

IS IT SOMETHING THAT WE DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER TO?

VERY GOOD QUESTION. AT THE MOMENT, WE HAVEN'T HIT THE WARTIME HIGHS THAT WE SAW IN APRIL FOR BRENT WHICH WAS JUST ABOVE $126. ATTACKS ESCALATING THERE. THAT COULD TIGHTEN THE MARKET. CHINESE BUYING AND COMING BACK AS WELL. THERE IS GOOD GROUNDS TO SAY THAT PRICES COULD RISE FROM HERE. BEAR IN MIND, IT'S NOT JUST CRUDE THAT IS RISING. WE ARE SEEING IT ACROSS PRODUCTS SUCH AS DIESEL, NATURAL GAS. YOU THROW THE RUSSIAN UKRAINE MORE INTO THE MIX AND YOU'VE GOT THIS CONFLUENCE OF EVENTS THAT ARE PUSHING ENERGY PRICES UP HIGHER AND IT MAKES IT DIFFICULT WHEN IT COMES TO INFLATION CONVERSATIONS.

GASOLINE IN THE U.S. OVER THE MOMENT. IT'S NEVER BEEN THAT HIGH BEFORE. IF Y

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