欧央行宣布加息25个基点，拉加德强调数据依赖
Oil Surges Above $105, Arnott Warns of Bubble Risk
央行已落地的货币政策决定，直接改变资金成本与宏观预期，是跨资产定价的核心锚点。
TURNING NOW TO THE RISK ASSESSMENT. THE RISK TO THE GROWTH OUTLOOK ARE TO THE DOWNSIDE. THIS IS DUE IN PARTICULAR TO THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT AND DEVELOPMENTS IN RUSSIA'S UNJUSTIFIED OR AGAINST UKRAINE. -- WAR AGAINST UKRAINE. RENEWED DISRUPTION OF ENERGY SURPRISED -- SUPPLIES COULD CAUSE ENERGY PRICES TO RISE FURTHER AND FOR LONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS WOULD WEIGH ON REAL INCOMES, SPENDING, AND INVESTMENT. THE WORSENING OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET SENTIMENT, AND SPILLOVERS IN BOND MARKET COULD TIGHTEN CREDIT CONDITIONSA RESURGENCE OF TRADE TENSIONS BETWEEN MAJOR ECONOMIES COULD ALSO FURTHER DISRUPT SUPPLY CHAINS, REDUCE EXPORTS, AND WEAKEN CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENT.
转向风险评估。增长前景面临下行风险，这主要是由于中东冲突以及俄罗斯对乌克兰的无端战争局势发展所致。能源供应可能再次中断，导致能源价格进一步上涨且持续时间超过当前预期。这将拖累实际收入、消费和投资。全球金融市场情绪恶化及债券市场的溢出效应可能收紧信贷条件。主要经济体之间贸易紧张局势的升级也可能进一步扰乱供应链，减少出口，并削弱消费和投资。
BY CONTRAST, GROWTH COULD TURN OUT TO BE HIGHER IF THE ECONOMY AND ENERGY MARKETS WERE TO ADAPT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED TO THE DISRUPTION CAUSED BY THE ONGOING CONFLICT OR THEY WERE RESOLVED SUSTAINABLY. MOREOVER, THE ADOPTION OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES BY EURO AREA FIRMS AND SPENDING ON DEFENSE AND INFRASTRUCTURE, AS WELL AS REFORMS TO ENHANCE PRODUCTIVITY AND COMPLETE THE EU'S SINGLE MARKET MAY DRIVE UP GROWTH BY MORE THAN EXPECTED.
相比之下，如果经济和能源市场比预期更快地适应持续冲突造成的中断，或者冲突得到可持续解决，增长可能会高于预期。此外，欧元区企业采用新技术、国防和基础设施支出，以及旨在提高生产力和完成欧盟单一市场的改革，可能会使增长超出预期。
THE RISKS TO THE INFLATION OUTLOOK ARE TO THE UPSIDE. THIS IS DUE TO THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT AND DEVELOPMENTS IN RUSSIA'S UNJUSTIFIED WAR AGAINST UKRAINE. THE ENERGY SHOCK COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER AND ITS EFFECT ON OTHER PRICES AND WAGES COULD BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. GAS PRICES IN PARTICULAR COULD INCREASE IN THE EVENT OF FURTHER SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS OR AN UNUSUALLY COLD WINTER COINCIDING WITH LOW STORAGE LEVELS.
通胀前景面临上行风险。这归因于中东冲突以及俄罗斯对乌克兰的无端战争局势发展。能源冲击可能进一步加剧，其对其他价格和工资的影响可能比当前预期更强。特别是在供应进一步中断或出现异常寒冷的冬季且库存水平较低的情况下，天然气价格可能会上涨。
THE LONGER ENERGY PRICES STAY HIGH, THE MORE LIKELY THEY ARE TO DRIVE UP BROADER INFLATION THROUGH INDIRECT AND SECOND ROUND EFFECTS. RENEWED TRADE TENSIONS COULD GIVE RISE TO MORE FRAGMENTED GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS, CURTAIL THE SUPPLY OF CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS, AND WORSEN CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS IN THE EURO AREA ECONOMY. EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS POTENTIALLY REINFORCED BY INTENSIFYING EL NIÑO CONDITIONS IN THE UNFOLDING -- THE UNFOLDING CLIMATE AND NATURE CRISIS MORE BROADLY COULD DRIVE UP FOOD PRICES BY MORE THAN EXPECTED.
能源价格维持高位的时间越长，通过间接和第二轮效应推高更广泛通胀的可能性就越大。新的贸易紧张局势可能导致全球供应链更加碎片化，限制关键原材料的供应，并加剧欧元区的产能约束。极端天气事件，加上正在展开的气候与生态危机中日益加剧的厄尔尼诺现象，可能会使食品价格上涨幅度超过预期。
BY CONTRAST, INFLATION COULD TURN OUT TO BE LOWER IF ONGOING GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICTS WERE RESOLVED SUSTAINABLY OR IF INDIRECT OR SECOND ROUND EFFECTS ON THE RECENT ENERGY PRICE SHOCK PROVED LESS PRONOUNCED THAN ANTICIPATED. MORE VOLATILE AND RISK-AVERSE FINANCIAL MARKETS COULD WEIGH ON DEMAND AND THEREBY LOWER INFLATION AS WELL. MARKET INTEREST RATES HAVE INCREASED SINCE OUR PREVIOUS MEETING, REFLECTING SIMILAR MOVES IN GLOBAL MARKETS.
相比之下，如果持续的地缘政治冲突得到可持续的解决，或者近期能源价格冲击的间接或第二轮影响不如预期明显，通胀可能会更低。波动性更大且风险规避倾向更强的金融市场可能会抑制需求，从而也降低通胀。自上次会议以来，市场利率有所上升，反映了全球市场的类似走势。
FOLLOWING OUR INTEREST RATE INCREASE IN JUNE, BANK LENDING RATES FOR FIRMS HAVE RISEN TO STAND AT 3.8% IN JUNE AND JULY FROM 3.6% IN MAY. THE COST OF MARKET-BASED CORPORATE DEBT GREW TO 4% IN JULY, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MONTHS AND WELL ABOVE ITS LEVEL BEFORE THE CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF BANK LENDING TO FIRMS, WHICH USUALLY RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN MONETARY POLICY WITH A LONGER DELAY, INCREASED FURTHER TO 4.4% IN JULY FROM 4% IN MAY AND JUNE.
继我们在6月加息后，面向企业的银行贷款利率在6月和7月升至3.8%，而5月为3.6%。基于市场的企业债务成本在7月增至4%，与之前几个月持平，且远高于中东冲突爆发前的水平。面向企业的银行贷款年增长率通常对货币政策变化反应较慢，但在7月从5月和6月的4%进一步增至4.4%。
THE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF CORPORATE BOND ISSUANCE WAS 3.4% AFTER 3.6% IN JUNE AND 3.3% IN MAY. MORTGAGE RATES WERE UNCHANGED IN JUNE AND JULY AT 3.5%, WHILE MORTGAGE LENDING GROWTH SOFTENED TO 3% IN JULY FROM 3.1% IN MAY AND JUNE. IN CONCLUSION, THE GOVERNING COUNCIL TODAY DECIDED TO RAISE THE THREE KEY ECB INTEREST RATES BY 25 BASIS POINTS. WE ARE COMMITTED TO SETTING MONETARY POLICY TO ENSURE INFLATION STABILIZES AT OUR 2% TARGET IN THE MEDIUM-TERM.
企业债券发行年增长率为3.4%，此前6月为3.6%，5月为3.3%。抵押贷款利率在6月和7月维持在3.5%不变，而抵押贷款增长在7月从5月和6月的3.1%放缓至3%。总之，管理委员会今天决定将欧洲央行（ECB）的三个关键利率提高25个基点。我们致力于制定货币政策，以确保通胀在中期内稳定在我们2%的目标水平。
WE WILL FOLLOW A DATA-DEPENDENT AND MEETING BY MEETING APPROACH TO DETERMINING THE APPROPRIATE MONETARY POLICY STANCE. OUR INTEREST RATE DECISIONS WILL BE BASED ON OUR ASSESSMENT OF THE INFLATION OUTLOOK AND THE RISKS SURROUNDING IT IN LIGHT OF THE INCOMING DATA AND THE DYNAMICS OF UNDERLYING INFLATION AND THE STRENGTH OF MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION. WE ARE NOT PRE-COMMITTING TO A PARTICULAR RATE PATH. IN ANY CASE WE STAND READY TO ADJUST ALL OF OUR INSTRUMENTS WITHIN OUR MANDATE TO ENSURE THAT INFLATION STABILIZES SUSTAINABLY AT OUR MEDIUM-TERM TARGET AND PRESERVE THE SMOOTH FUNCTIONING OF MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION.
我们将采取数据依赖和逐次会议的方法来确定适当的货币政策立场。我们的利率决策将基于我们对通胀前景及其周围风险的评估，同时考虑 incoming 数据、潜在通胀的动态以及货币政策传导的力度。我们不对特定的利率路径做出预先承诺。无论如何，我们都准备在授权范围内调整所有工具，以确保通胀在中长期目标上实现可持续的稳定，并保持货币政策传导的顺畅运行。
WE ARE NOW READY TO TAKE YOUR QUESTIONS. THANK YOU.
我们现在准备好回答各位的问题。谢谢。
THE FIRST QUESTION GOES TO BLOOMBERG.
第一个问题来自彭博社。
THANK YOU. IN JULY, YOU SAID THE ECB'S REACTION FUNCTION IS WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MARKETS. TODAY MARKETS ARE PRICING THREE HIKES FOLLOWING TODAY'S MOVE. WOULD YOU REPEAT WHAT YOU SAID IN JULY AND IS IT FAIR TO SAY HIGHER INFLATION PROJECTIONS THAT THE TIGHTENING CYCLE ISN'T OVER YET? ON YOUR OWN FUTURE THERE ARE CONSISTENT MEDIA REPORTS YOU HAVE EXPRESSED YOUR WILLINGNESS TO TAKE OVER AS CHAIR OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM.
谢谢。七月时，您曾表示市场对欧洲央行（ECB）的反应函数已有充分理解。今天，市场在今天的行动之后定价了三次加息。您是否会重申您在七月所说的话？能否说更高的通胀预测意味着紧缩周期尚未结束？关于您个人的未来，媒体一致报道您有意接任世界经济论坛主席。
ARE THESE REPORTS ACCURATE? DO YOU INTEND TO LEAVE THE ECB EARLY OR STAY UNTIL THE END OF YOUR TERM? THANK YOU. M
这些报道准确吗？您打算提前离开欧洲央行，还是任满整个任期？谢谢。M
YOU GIVE ME A CHANCE TO YET AGAIN GIVE WHAT I LIKE MOST, WHICH IS FRAMEWORK GUIDANCE. IN THAT GUIDANCE IS ENCAPSULATED IN THE THREE KEY PILLARS WE USE, WHICH IS THE INFLATION OUTLOOK WITH THE ASSESSMENT OF THE RISK. IT IS THE UNDERLYING INFLATION AND IT IS THE TRANSMISSION. THOSE OF THE THREE PILLARS. WE DO THAT ON THE BASIS OF THE ANALYSIS OF THE SHOCK. IN THE PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES, PREDOMINANTLY SUPPLY SHOCK OF WHICH WE ANALYZE THE INTENSITY THE DURATION, AND THE PROPAGATION.
请允许我再次给予我最喜欢的东西，即框架指引。该指引包含在我们使用的三个关键支柱中，分别是：结合风险评估的通胀前景、核心通胀以及传导机制。这三大支柱是我们基于对冲击的分析来评估的基础。在当前情况下，主要是供应冲击，我们分析其强度、持续时间和传播效应。
WE DO THAT ON A MEETING BY MEETING BASIS AND WE ARE DATA-DEPENDENT. YOU HAVE HEARD ME SAY THAT AD NAUSEAM TO YOUR TASTE THAT THIS IS WHAT WE STICK TO AND THIS IS HOW WE OPERATE. MARKETS DO THEY HAVE TO DO AND WE DO WHAT WE HAVE TO DO WHICH IS TO PROVIDE PRICE STABILITY. WHICH IS THE 2% TARGET IN THE MEDIUM-TERM. WHEN A TALK ABOUT FRAMEWORK GUIDANCE, THIS IS WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT. I'M ASSUMING MARKETS FIND IT HELPFUL TO DETERMINE THE PATH THAT THEY UNDERSTAND.
我们是逐次会议进行评估的，并且是数据依赖型的。你们已经听我说过无数次，这也是我所坚持和运作的方式。市场做他们该做的事，我们做我们该做的事，即提供价格稳定，也就是中期2%的目标。当我谈论框架指引时，我指的就是这个。我假设市场发现它有助于确定他们所理解的路径。
BUT THEY DO THEIR JOB. WE DO OUR JOB. I CAN ASSURE YOU THE ENTIRE DISCUSSIONS WE HAVE HAD TODAY WERE FOCUSED ON TODAY'S DECISION. WE HAVE NOT ACTUALLY DEBATED AT ALL ANY KIND OF FUTURE PATH, THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS OR THAT. WE ARE DEAD SERIOUS ABOUT THE FRAMEWORK WE OBSERVE. AND THAT WE WANT TO COLLECTIVELY RESPECT. I WILL SAY THIS. WHEN THERE IS SOMETHING TO REPORT ABOUT ME PERSONALLY, YOU WILL BE THE FIRST ONE TO KNOW.
但他们履行他们的职责，我们也履行我们的职责。我可以向您保证，我们今天进行的所有讨论都专注于今天的决定。我们实际上根本没有辩论过任何未来的路径、这种或那种情况的可能性。我们对所遵循的框架非常严肃认真，并希望集体尊重它。我会这样说：如果有关于我个人方面的消息要报告，你们将是第一个知道的。
AFTER MY GRANDCHILDREN. AND THERE IS NOTHING TO REPORT.
在我孙辈之后。而且没有任何可报告的。
THE NEXT QUESTION TO HANNAH BAKER OF REUTERS. FIRST ROW.
下一个问题来自路透社的汉娜·贝克。第一排。
GOOD AFTERNOON AND THANK YOU FOR TAKING MY QUESTION. YOU HAVE TALKED ABOUT THE RATE PATH YOU HAVE NOT TALKED ABOUT THE FUTURE RATE PATH. YOU ARE NOW AT THE TOP END OF THE NEUTRAL RANGE OF THE INTEREST RATE. HAS THE EVENT ANYONE IN THE COUNCIL WHO HAS TALKED ABOUT MOVING INTO RESTRICTIVE TERRITORY OR THE NEED FOR IT? THAT WOULD BE THE QUESTION. HOW DO YOU GO FROM HERE? PRESIDENT LEGARDE: YOU MIGHT TRY MULTIPLE ANGLES TO GET ME TO IDENTIFY THE NEXT MOVE.
下午好，感谢您接受我的提问。您谈到了利率路径，但没有谈及未来的利率路径。您目前处于中性利率区间的上限。委员会中是否有人曾谈到进入限制性领域或对此的需求？这就是我的问题。接下来该如何走？莱加尔德行长：您可能尝试从多个角度让我指出下一步行动。
THIS IS REALLY NOT THE POINT. I CAN ASSURE YOU THAT WE ARE NOT TAKING A VIEW AS TO WHICH DIRECTION WE GO AT OUR NEXT MEETING. WHY IS THAT? I WILL COME BACK TO THE NEUTRAL RATE FOR A SECOND. WHY IT IS, BECAUSE -- YOU HAVE A SECOND QUESTION? WHY DON'T YOU GIVE IT TO ME AT THE SAME TIME. THEY HAVE TO PUT THEIR QUESTIONS AT THE SAME TIME, SO TELL ME.
这真的不是重点。我可以向你保证，我们不会对下次会议的方向做出任何预判。为什么这么说？我稍后会回到中性利率的话题。之所以如此，是因为——你还有第二个问题吗？为什么不现在一起提出来呢？他们必须同时提出问题，所以请告诉我。
PROJECTIONS ARE ABOVE TARGET IN THE INFLATION RANGE. WOULDN'T THAT MEAN YOU HAVE TO HIKE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS AGAIN TO MAKE SURE YOU REACH THAT AIM? PRESIDENT LAGARDE: OK. I WILL GO BACK TO THE ANSWER I WAS GIVING YOU FOR YOUR FIRST QUESTION. WE DON'T -- WE DON'T FOCUS ON THE MEETING AND ON THE DATA TO ANNOY EITHER YOU OR THE OBSERVERS OF THE ANALYSTS. WE DO IT BECAUSE WE ARE IN THIS UNCERTAINTY THAT CAN CHANGE THINGS ALMOST OVERNIGHT.
通胀区间的预测高于目标水平。这是否意味着在未来几年内你必须再次加息以确保实现该目标？拉加德行长：好的。我将回到我之前对你第一个问题的回答。我们并非聚焦于会议和数据以故意困扰你们或分析师观察者。我们这样做是因为我们身处一种不确定性之中，这种不确定性几乎可以一夜之间改变一切。
I'LL GIVE AN EXAMPLE. THE REFINING MARGINS. IF I HAD TALKED ABOUT THE REFINING MARGINS SIX MONTHS AGO, WE WOULD NOT HAVE KNOWN WHAT WE ARE REALLY TALKING ABOUT. NOW, WHETHER YOU CALL IT THE CRACK SPREAD BY THE REFINING MARGIN ON LIQUID FUEL, WE ALL KNOW IT IT'S ABOUT AND WE ALL KNOW THAT DIESEL IS USED BY A CATEGORY OF ECONOMIC ACTORS. WE KNOW NOW IT IS YET ANOTHER BOTTLENECK. BUT THOSE THINGS HAPPEN AS A RESULT OF MULTIPLE GEOPOLITICAL CHANGES.
我举个例子。炼油利润率。如果我六个月前谈论炼油利润率，我们就不会真正清楚我们在讨论什么。现在，无论你称之为裂解价差还是液体燃料的炼油利润率，我们都清楚其含义，也都明白柴油被一类经济主体所使用。我们现在知道它又是一个瓶颈。但这些现象是多重地缘政治变化的结果。
AS A RESULT OF SUPPLY CHAIN REORGANIZATIONS. AS A RESULT OF ADJUSTMENT OF THE ECONOMY.
由于供应链重组的结果。由于经济调整的结果。
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