美国PPI超预期，市场押注美联储下周维持利率不变

Anna, the number. Were you surprised by it? It was lower than forecast in August. Well, the the headline is in line with ours, but the components that go into the core PCA deflator, which is what the fed cares about, came in higher than we thought. So namely health care, uh, inflation as uh, surged, um, and airfares was growing at 3.2%. So those two are going to potentially make this core, uh, PC print bearing a downside surprise in CPI.

It is probably going to to, uh, be 0.25 or above, potentially rounding to 0.3. Anna, you and your team have a no doubt. And I love that headline. Got my attention. So that worked its CPI or bust for Hawks on the FOMC. What do you mean by that. Well um it's it is basically the the CPI and PPI print um will determine whether the Hawks would get the upper hand in the FOMC next week. And so um, I think right now the Hawks may have the upper, uh, you know, may have what, what they want.

Um, but, um, um, one thing that won't be determined by the CPI and PPI print today and tomorrow is the PCI. Downward revisions, the downward revisions to inflation two weeks after the FOMC meeting. So I think one lingering, uh, uncertainty going into next week's fed meeting for us is how is the FOMC going to take into account. Uh, sudden downward at a point two percentage point downward revisions in core PCC after this meeting.

Are they going to consider that that is in line with, you know, continuous disinflation. Um, as they make the decision. Because if they do, then that makes a whole lot of difference. And that will, uh, set the case for not hiking next week. And I want to take you back to fed Chair Kevin Warsh back at Jackson Hole. Um, he was saying that CPI would be a little bit more significant for policy policymakers, um, than August payrolls.

Do you think he's right? Yeah. I think, uh, well, given that inflation has been above target for five years, uh, and that seems to be the, uh, speaking point that every single FOMC participant is reiterating, uh, in recent months. So that's why they are focusing and prioritizing inflation data over Jeff's data. And in the bond markets. Really moving here. We got the ten year up about eight basis points today. But that for 92.

What do you make of the consistently higher moving rates. Yes. So first of all it's a global phenomenon. You can see that uh yields are higher. Uh, um, in all the advanced economies with uh, that have high fiscal deficit and fiscal debt. And second of all, I think part of it is related to concerns about, uh, U.S. fiscal trajectory. Uh, particularly after I eat the ruling. Um, we have a missing 1 trillion in, in the, in the in the ten year budget horizon.

It used to be that the 1 trillion from tariffs would be able to partly pay for the one big beautiful bill which costs 3 trillion. And now we're missing, you know, a third of that, that funding. And I think, uh, bond vigilantes definitely are paying attention to that. Uh, finally, I think part of it is, is that, um, the Iran war play a key role and concerns about inflation. And with the war re escalating again, I think, uh, that's definitely a catalyst into the, you know, uh, selloff in the bond market.

Hey, Anna, before, uh, the opening bell, what point do yields become a threat to the economy like, rather than reflecting stronger growth, higher inflation expectations? Well, I think, um, exogenous increases and yields would, would be, uh, would would restrain the economy. And at five, uh, 4.4. 8%, approaching 5%, I think we are approaching that line where you will definitely see, uh, very negative impact on, uh, housing market as well and, uh, as on equities and people's wells portfolio and eventually consumption.