美国PPI超预期上涨，WTI原油突破100美元推升通胀预期

Let's get to that. Economic data and jobless claims. Mike McKee has the numbers. Hey, Mike. Joe. Well, it's not particularly good news, but that was expected. PPI for final demand on a month over month basis, up 4/10 of a percent, puts the year over year number at 5.4% after a revised 4.8% last month. That is more than was anticipated. Uh x food and energy were up 2/10 of a percent, a little bit less than expected, and on a year over year basis, 4.6% bang on with the consensus forecast.

And then X food, energy and trade up 3/10 as forecast. And that puts us at 4.7% for that as it was last month and as was expected. So still a lot of price pressure in the PPI. One other number we just got initial jobless claims 206,000 after a revised 207,000 last month. So no change on the labor market side, but something to keep an eye on definitely when we're talking about inflation here. Uh, I was just talking with Omar Sharif of inflation Insights, and he pointed out that, uh, the August PPI numbers only include data through August 11th.

So the big rise in oil prices we've seen in the big rise in diesel prices we've seen hasn't really been reflected in this. And then you take a look at what's happening with oil prices today. If that doesn't reverse, this all adds another layer of complexity to the fed, which has to think now about, well, those that's what what's happening in August, but what's going to be happening down the road. It's not reversing on my screen right now.

My stand by 9997 is the higher the session, the higher the session printed just seconds ago. And ultimately people are taking their cues from just that. As you see two year yields inflecting at session highs right now. Triple digit print. There it is. First time since May triple digits on WTI. Briefly Brent crude right there as well. We had higher energy prices in the back of what led to this latest news. What's going on with Saudi Arabia before the war started.

They were basically at 11 million barrels a day and are reporting today that they're just over six. This is a huge shock. This is a nightmare for a policymaker right now. There is absolutely no way, at the onset of this war and the start of March, when they were seeing these high crude prices in triple digits, that they wanted to hike interest rates into a negative supply shock. They wanted to look through this. They wanted to look through this.

They wanted to look through this was seven months into this mess now. And there's a feeling for a lot of them that they can no longer look through this because they've been above target for so long. 65 plus months. They're losing patience and people are starting to question credibility. And growth hasn't slowed sufficiently to really indicate that the demand side is slowing enough to compensate for some of those higher commodity prices.

Today's gut punch, and some of the 123 punch for the bond market. On one hand, you've got the ECB hiking and saying that inflationary pressures are going to persist. You have jobless claims coming in pretty much at those low estimates. And then you have inflation, inflation coming in with PPI at an elevated pace ahead of even this sort of a triple digit price that we're seeing in the oil market. Ultimately it is a toxic brew and bonds are responding.

Mike McKay triple digits on crude again on WTI on Brent, something we haven't seen since May. Mike was saying it in crude product as well. It's it's been elevated. It's been painful for months now. Mike you understand the fed better than most. I imagine that most of them wanted to look through this negative supply shock. Is that getting harder Mike, given that this is month seven and counting. It's absolutely getting harder.

And the problem becomes that it's starting to spread throughout other areas of the economy in terms of the effects of these energy price rises. Remember I said this a PPI only captures prices through August 11th. But now, and looking at the detail here, the price of diesel fuel in that period jumped 24% and goods prices overall were up 1.1%. Jet fuel, gasoline, home heating oil also up significantly during the month.

Final demand services the one bit of good news up a 10th of a percent overall. And a lot of the Hawks have been looking at services prices. But prices for truck transportation of freight up 2%. So we're starting to see this spread. And if that continues, it's going to be very hard for the fed to come up with some reason not to raise rates. Now, the other thing is we're going to be watching to see how this PPI translates into PC.

And as I mentioned, talking with Omar Sharif, he says, could take a little longer for economists to do this because we did have changes in methodology for a number of the different categories, including portfolio management. So we'll have to see, uh, first how they translate that and then how that works into PPI. And of course, a lot of that will depend on what happens tomorrow with CPI. But it does set everybody up to wonder what's going to happen next with inflation.