美伊冲突推高油价，分析师预测天然气过剩将拖累原油回落
Crude Hits $100 as US-Iran War Escalates With Tankers Targeted
It's the absolute worst case for the party in power who instituted the war in Iran and just happens to be in the country with the world's largest energy producer, a net exporter, biggest producer, natural gas. But it's not just crude oil. I asked to ask me today. When's the last time? That December. Corn future was up 16% in the month of August. And it said never going back to 1980. So they're all linked now. This is the absolute worst case for Republicans in in the midterms.
这是对发动伊朗战争的执政党而言的最糟糕情况，而该党领导人恰好身处拥有全球最大能源生产国、净出口国、最大生产国以及天然气资源的国家。但问题不仅仅在于原油。我要求今天问我这个问题。上次是什么时候？那是十二月。玉米期货在八月一个月内上涨了16%。并且人们说价格永远不会回到1980年的水平。所以现在它们都相互关联了。这对共和党在中期选举中来说是最糟糕的情况。
And then they have to worry about the 2028 election. So I think they're still going to find a way to make them go lower. But here's the thing that's happening fundamentally, that price of Brent or WTI right around $95 a barrel, it's almost double the cost of production in the US. And we're now we're seeing record production in the US, Canada, Guyana, um, Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela is on the way. And you see that shift to the Western Hemisphere.
然后他们还得担心2028年的大选。所以我认为他们仍会想办法让油价进一步走低。但这里发生的基本事实是，布伦特原油或WTI（西德克萨斯中质原油）的价格目前就在每桶95美元左右，这几乎是美国生产成本的两倍。我们现在看到美国、加拿大、圭亚那、阿根廷、巴西的产量创下纪录，委内瑞拉也在路上。你可以看到这种向半球西部的转移。
So it's just a matter of time that this high priced cure kicks in. But it might take down a bit of the global economy with it. You're mentioning some of the, uh, agricultural. I mean, I'm looking just really doing well this year. Corn up 15%. Uh, soybeans up 26%. Year to date. Wheat up 42%. Are farmers doing better? Is this. Are they enjoying these higher prices? This is a dream for us farmers. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
所以这只是时间问题，这种高价效应终将显现。但它可能会拖累全球经济的一部分。你提到了一些农业领域。我的意思是，今年农产品表现真的很好。玉米价格上涨了15%。大豆上涨26%。年初至今。小麦上涨42%。农民们的境况好转了吗？这是……他们是否正在享受这些更高的价格？这对我们农民来说是梦想成真。俄罗斯于2022年入侵乌克兰。
They're finally making profits the last two years in the Corn Belt and there have been very bad. And it's similar to World War One. It was very good for U.S. farmers. All the wars in Europe is usually good. But what are you saying with wheat? That's issues in Ukraine with soybeans. Soybean oil is driving everything. It's up almost the exact same as the crude oil, about 60 to 70%. Then here and corn. Here's a shocker.
在过去的两年里，玉米带地区终于实现了盈利，此前状况非常糟糕。这与第一次世界大战的情况类似，当时对美国农民非常有利。欧洲的所有战争通常都有利于美国农民。但你关于小麦的说法是什么意思？乌克兰的问题影响了大豆。豆油正在推动一切。其涨幅几乎与原油完全相同，约为60%到70%。然后是玉米。这里有一个令人震惊的消息。
Corn. I've never seen this poor. I'm. I used to own the farm. I've never seen an issue with too much rain in July. Nitrogen loss has been an issue that's pumping up the price of corn. So it's almost a perfect storm. Yeah. All right. So we talk about oil prices and how it's been on the up and up WTI the U.S. benchmark now above $95 a barrel. And I think about nat gas prices because my home is heated with nat gas. Really?
玉米。我从未见过如此糟糕的情况。我……我以前拥有农场。我从未见过七月雨水过多的问题。氮流失一直是个问题，推高了玉米价格。所以这几乎是一场完美风暴。是的。好吧。所以我们谈谈油价，以及WTI（美国基准油价）如何一路上涨，现在已超过每桶95美元。我也想到了天然气价格，因为我家是用天然气供暖的。真的吗？
Yeah. And I look at the price of that gas futures, and they have not moved in the same way that crude oil has moved. Why that is a discrepancy. So, Scarlett, you knew where I was going to go. Thanks for remind me that price to the US natural gas. The January future. That's the apex of the futures curve. It's dropped below. Ford's down almost 20% on the year. And that's the number one measure in the US for heat, electricity and fertilizer.
是的。我查看了天然气期货的价格，它们并没有像原油那样同步变动。这就是一个差异所在。所以，斯卡莱特，你知道我要说什么了。谢谢你提醒我关注美国天然气价格。1月合约。这是期货曲线的顶点。它已经下跌。福特（Ford）今年几乎下跌了20%。这是美国用于供暖、发电和化肥的主要指标。
That's the big difference from Russia invaded Ukraine. Nat gas pumped around $9. Now it's running below four and in the January contract. So it's a good indication of where all these futures prices are go going where all energy is going. U.S. has a glut of natural gas, and we have major supply coming in from from better drilling techniques in the Permian. The key thing I like to point out is a great indication of what happened after 2022.
这与俄罗斯入侵乌克兰形成了鲜明对比。当时天然气价格在9美元左右徘徊。现在在1月合约中已运行至4美元以下。因此，这是一个很好的指示，表明所有这些期货价格以及所有能源价格的走向。美国天然气供应过剩，我们正从二叠纪盆地（Permian）通过更先进的钻井技术获得大量新增供应。我想指出的关键是，这很好地预示了2022年之后会发生什么。
So once we get a little bit of maybe potential detente or trump the cave a little bit in Iran, expect crude oil to follow natural gas back down. It could drop 20% in a heartbeat.
因此，一旦我们迎来一些可能的缓和迹象，或者特朗普在伊朗问题上做出些许让步，预计原油将跟随天然气一起下跌。它可能会瞬间下跌20%。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力