苹果明日发布折叠iPhone，预计年产700-1000万台
Apple Set for Major Product Launch with Foldable iPhone
苹果折叠iPhone落地在即，产量与售罄预期明确，直接影响AAPL供应链估值与中国区销售逻辑，建议关注发布会细节及后续订单数据。
Mark, I wonder if you could walk us through some of the history behind the design of this new product.
马克，你能否带我们回顾一下这款新产品设计背后的历史？
Yeah, thank you for having me. This is a really big deal for Apple. It's a really big deal for the industry. Foldable phones have been around on the market since around 2019 when Samsung launched the first Galaxy Fold. Uh but Apple's work on the product actually predates that. About a decade ago, their core technology teams, these are sort of research groups within the hardware team at Apple that looks at future technologies, started playing with foldable screens.
是的，感谢邀请我。这对苹果来说意义重大，对整个行业也是如此。可折叠手机自2019年左右三星推出首款Galaxy Fold以来就已上市。但苹果在这款产品上的工作实际上早于那个时间点。大约十年前，其核心技术团队——这些是硬件团队内部专注于未来技术的研究小组——开始尝试可折叠屏幕。
And the original idea was an iPad mini that could unfold to be a larger iPad. But Tim Cook goes to Asia around 2020, goes to China, goes to Korea, he sees Huawei, uh he sees Samsung, he sees everyone using these phones, and he comes back inspired and enthusiastic, unusually so, I may add, uh about foldable phones, and asks Apple, "What's up? Where's our foldable phone?" And so they pivot from the iPad to a foldable phone.
最初的构想是一款可以展开变成更大iPad的iPad mini。但蒂姆·库克在2020年左右前往亚洲，去了中国、韩国，他看到了华为、三星，看到大家都在使用这些手机，回来后备受鼓舞且异常热情（我补充一句），对可折叠手机充满热情，并问苹果：‘怎么回事？我们的可折叠手机在哪里？’于是他们从iPad转向了可折叠手机。
And around 2023, they had their aha moment, which was this short and wider design, uh, more interesting, better experience for watching video. It's an aspect ratio known as 4x3. It's basically the same aspect ratio you get with an iPad in landscape mode versus traditional foldable phones had a more squarish design. Uh, and so now this is what Apple is going to introduce tomorrow on Wednesday at its surprise and shine event in Certino.
大约在2023年，他们迎来了顿悟时刻，那就是这种更短更宽的设计，观看视频时体验更佳、更有趣。这是一种被称为4:3的宽高比。基本上与iPad横屏模式下的宽高比相同，而传统可折叠手机则采用更方正的设计。因此，这就是苹果明天周三在Certino举行的惊喜闪耀活动上将推出的产品。
And we'll also see new Apple Watches and likely new AirPods as well. So, this should be a pretty blockbuster introduction for new CEO John Turnis.
我们还将看到新款Apple Watch以及可能的新AirPods。因此，这应该是新任CEO约翰·特尼斯的一次重磅新品发布。
And are you anticipating high consumer demand for a product like this given the broader market that you just outlined?
鉴于你刚才概述的更广泛的市场情况，你是否预期这类产品会有很高的消费者需求？
You know, Apple is probably going to make 7 to 10 million units this year and the expectation of essentially everyone is they're going to be able to sell out of every unit they can make. These are extremely complex products to build and manufacture. Uh the display technology is very advanced. The hinge is very advanced. Getting the batteries and cameras and everything in there is a very complex process, much more complicated than building your traditional slab or candy bar form factor phone, which by the way, there'll be new ones of those as well with the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max.
你知道，苹果今年可能会生产700万到1000万台设备，几乎所有人的预期是，他们能够将自己能生产的每一台都售罄。这些产品的制造和组装极其复杂。显示技术非常先进，铰链也非常先进。将电池、摄像头等组件集成其中是一个极其复杂的过程，远比制造传统的板状或糖果条式手机复杂，顺便说一句，那些传统形态的手机也会有新款，包括iPhone 18 Pro和18 Pro Max。
Uh but in terms of what percentage of all new iPhones will this phone be, it's going to be slim. The the foldable market is about 2% of the United States uh at this point, but in China, it's actually double that. And so this is going to be a very important phone for the Chinese market, which has obviously been a little bit of a roller coaster for Apple right now. It's on a bit of a high, which is a good thing. And the hope for the company uh is that the foldable will keep them
嗯，但就这款手机在所有新款 iPhone 中所占的百分比而言，它的份额会比较小。目前，折叠屏手机在美国市场的占比约为 2%，而在中国市场，这一比例实际上是两倍。因此，这款手机对中国市场将至关重要，而苹果在中国市场的表现近期显然经历了一番起伏。目前中国市场处于一个相对较高的水平，这是好事。公司希望折叠屏产品能让他们
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