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This is the Bloomberg Daily Cura podcast. Good morning. It's Thursday the 10th of September. I'm Caroline Hepka in London

and I'm Steven Carroll in Brussels. Coming up today, traders ramp up bets on multiple interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank and Bank of England as oil surges above $100 a barrel. Apple unveils its first foldable iPhone as part of a major product overhaul.

Plus, from fringe to mainstream, why Sweden's far right may fall short of power, even after transforming the country's political debate.

Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

Oil's move back above $100 a barrel is raising inflation risks and driving expectations for more interest rate hikes across Europe. The European Central Bank is expected to deliver a quarter point hike today with Eurozone inflation already above 3%. Jamie Rush is director of global economics at Bloomberg. Well, they're going to hike, aren't they? Cuz they've told us so. The key question is what is going to happen thereafter?

I mean, we know that that forward guidance is basically dead in the US. I don't think they're quite ready to shed that in the ECB yet. So, we may get something useful from the guard on on the path ahead. Jamie Rush there as traders now price in around 90 basis points of increases by the end of next year. That suggests at least three quarter point hikes with around a 60% chance of a fourth. But some analysts say markets are pricing too many further hikes given limited signs of broader inflationary pressures.

Here's ING's chief economist Maria Blalom.

We would say that if you look at the inflation picture at the moment that's still pretty well behaved. Um and also looking further ahead when we look at next year we don't expect to see very high inflation. Um that's mostly because uh yes energy prices are obviously higher and that is coming through in headline inflation. But if you look at core inflation uh surfaces wages and so forth we don't see that much inflationary pressure which is why we believe that one rate hike could be enough.

Maria Kablam was speaking as markets also expect the Bank of England to deliver at least three quarter point hikes by the end of 2027 with higher energy costs threatening to keep inflation elevated. Higher borrowing costs are already hitting homeowners with the average 2-year fixed mortgage rate in the UK now at 5.7%. And estate agents are warning today that house prices in Britain are likely to fall in the coming months.

Now, Iran is ready for a more intense war and will escalate counter strikes if US attacks continue. This according to a senior Iranian official. The official told Bloomberg that Tyran has no intention of backing down despite mounting economic pressure from the seven-month conflict. President Trump also continues to downplay concerns about rising oil prices. He told reporters he expects the conflict to end around November's midterm elections in the US because Iran can't hold out much longer.

Paul Wallace is our managing editor for politics and economics in the Middle East.

I think it shows just how hard it is for Trump to wind down this conflict which is increasingly unpopular with American voters. Iran is standing firm in saying that it can withstand American economic and military pressure. And we have an Iranian source saying that they will even escalate if necessary.

Paul Wallace there. The comments from the senior Iranian official come as hostilities between the US and Iran show little sign of easing. The Wall Street Journal reports Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have raised the prospect of the conflict continuing beyond Trump's presidential term.

Well, as Republicans face a difficult midterm election, President Trump has made voters an offer. Speaking at the party's convention in Dallas, he promised a $5,000 payout to adults if Republicans can retain control of Congress. If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them, because of our economic tremendous economic success, like in in history, we've never had anything like what's happening.

But because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I WILL ISSUE A DIVIDEND to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000. The so-called Trump dividend would require congressional approval and could cost well over $1 trillion. The pledge comes as Trump tries to overcome voter concerns about affordability and the seven-month war in with Iran. Treasury futures barely moved after the announcement, suggesting markets see little chance of the payout becoming reality.

Now to the UK. British police are investigating Reform UK over potential electoral law violations, deepening a fundraising scandal engulfing Nigel Farage's party. The move follows a Channel 4 news report showing senior party officials appearing to discuss how to circumvent rules on foreign donations. Without naming reform, London's Metropolitan Police said on Wednesday that reports received after the broadcast would be added to the allegations in an ongoing investigation.

The party denies any wrongdoing and says that it will fully cooperate with the investigation. Apple has launched its first foldable smartphone, betting a major iPhone redesign can help energize growth. The iPhone Duo opens into a 7.6 in display, the largest screen ever offered on an iPhone. Prices start at $1,999 in the US, rising to almost $3,200 for the version with 2 terab of storage. Here is Bloomberg Intelligence's head of global technology research, Mandep Singh. when you're talking about a two grand uh price point, um I think it's going to be hard for people, a lot of people to upgrade.

And look, I can see why they had to price it uh at that uh you know, $2,000 because all of their component prices are going up. That's Bloomberg Intelligence as Mandep Singh there on the Duo device which will be available from the 23rd of October in more than 70 countries. Apple also unveiled new iPhone 18 Pro models, AirPods, and watches while raising pro iPhone prices by $100. European car producers are facing more direct competition from Chinese brands.

According to Bloomberg Economics, automakers are set to lose even more ground in the coming years. Bloomberg SA Adabio has more. 10 years ago, China's city streets were congested with Volkswagens and Audi's. Now it's domestic brands like BYD and J sitting in traffic while Germany's VW announces 50,000 job cuts. According to Bloomberg Economics, the cost of Europe's lost market shares to China since 2018 made up about 0.7% of GDP last year.

That's up from 0.5% in 2024. The news comes as Beijing's share of global imports falls whilst its domination in advanced manufacturing sectors is skyrocketing. And that impact looks set to grow. China's exports have continued to rise in 2026, especially when it comes to key European export goods like automotives and some chemicals. In London, Ta Adabio, Bloomberg Radio. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond has met the UK Prime Minister Andy Bernham and the Chancellor John Healey as the government considers higher taxes on banks.

The talks come ahead of Hely's first budget on the 28th of October. Bernham has declined to rule out a windfall tax following strong profits at Britain's biggest lenders. Diamond has warned that higher taxes could deter investment and force JP Morgan to rethink plans for a major new London headquarters. Now, it's reported the government will set out plans to give Mayers in England the power to introduce a levy on tourists later today.

Bloomberg's Yuan Pots has more.

Dubbed the tourist tax, the plan was first mooted by K Starmmer's government last year and is similar to a scheme running in Scotland. It's widely reported the government will today lay out plans to allow mayers in England to levy a fee on people staying overnight in their areas. Local leaders would then

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