Bloomberg：油价逼近百元，美联储加息与中期选举成市场焦点
Stocks Waver at Start of Week Filled With Key Inflation Data
直击当前宏观交易的核心矛盾：高油价、通胀粘性与美联储政策路径的博弈。对理解短期市场波动逻辑有直接参考价值，建议关注本周公布的PPI及后续通胀数据。
IS THERE ACTUALLY SOMETHING CYCLICALLY WEAK STARTING TO STRICTER THIS MARKET?
这个市场是否真的开始出现某种周期性疲软？
THE STORE IS A LOT BROADER THAN NUMBERS WHICH SUGGEST.
实际情况比数据所暗示的要广泛得多。
WE ARE OVERALL BULLISH. JONATHAN: GOOD MORNING, GOOD MORNING. FOR OUR AUDIENCE WORLDWIDE, "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE." COMING INTO TUESDAY, GETTING BACK TO WORK, TENSION ACROSS THE MIDDLE ASCENDING CRUDE BACK TOWARD TRIPLE DIGITS. KEEPING KEVIN WARSH FED FIRMLY ON THIS INFLATION REPORT AND COMPROMISING THE WHITE HOUSE MESSAGING ON THE ECONOMY HEADING INTO THE MIDTERMS. LISA: REPS WHAT WE HEARD PRESIDENT TRUMP TALKING ABOUT CRUDE PRICES WERE AT LEAST OIL PRICES BACK BELOW TWO DOLLARS PER BARREL.
总体而言我们看涨。乔纳森：大家早上好，早上好。欢迎全球观众收看《彭博监控》。进入周二，大家重返工作岗位，中东地区的紧张局势升温，原油价格重新向三位数迈进。凯文·沃什在通胀报告面前坚定立场，并影响了白宫在中期选举前对经济信息的传达。丽莎：正如我们听到的，特朗普总统谈论原油价格时，至少提到油价曾回落至每桶两美元以下。
PER GALLON. HOLDING MIDTERM CONVENTION LATER THIS WEEK AT A TIME WHERE IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER PRESIDENT TRUMP'S PRESENCE WILL BE A BENEFIT OR A LIABILITY GIVEN RECENT POLLING. ANNMARIE: 56 DAYS OUT AND YOU HAVE HIGHER GASOLINE PRICES. MUCH HIGHER DIESEL PRICES. VERY DIFFICULT MARKET WHEN IT COMES TO THE PETROLEUM MARKETS. ON TOP OF THAT, YOU HAVE A FEDERAL RESERVE THAT POTENTIALLY IS GOING TO HIKE RATES EVEN THOUGH THE PRESIDENT, VICE PRESIDENT, A NUMBER OF PEOPLE HAVE COME OFF HIS ADMINISTRATION SAYING YOU SHOULD BE CUTTING INTEREST RATES.
每加仑。本周晚些时候将举行中期选举大会，鉴于最近的民调结果，尚不清楚特朗普总统的出席是利好还是利空。安玛丽：距离选举还有56天，汽油价格已经上涨。柴油价格上涨幅度更大。石油市场形势非常艰难。此外，美联储可能会加息，尽管总统、副总统以及他政府中的许多人表示应该降息。
JONATHAN: CRUDE THIS MORNING, $99. $98.40 ON THE SCREEN RIGHT NOW. THAT THAT IS BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE. THEY CANNOT CONTROL THE OUTCOME OF GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. THEY CANNOT SIGN PEACE ACCORDS OR BUILD REFINERIES. THEY CAN MAKE THIS WORSE. THAT IS THE ROCK AND A HARD FEDERAL RESERVE IS STUCK BETWEEN RIGHT NOW. I CAN'T MAKE IT BETTER BUT THEY CAN MAKE IT WORSE. THAT IS THE CHALLENGE KEVIN WARSH HAS GOT IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
乔纳森：今早原油价格为99美元。屏幕上显示当前为98.40美元。这真是进退维谷。他们无法控制地缘政治事件的结果，无法签署和平协议或建造炼油厂。他们可能让情况变得更糟。这就是美联储目前陷入的两难境地：我无法让情况好转，但他们可以让情况恶化。这是凯文·沃什在未来两周内面临的挑战。
LISA: A CHALLENGE BACKED UP BY THE IDEA HIGH OIL PRICES HAVE NOT YET TORPEDOED THE OVERALL ECONOMY. "YET" THE NET KEYWORD. DO WE GET A TIPPING POINT? IT AWAY COME THIS WEEK ON THURSDAY WE GET PPI. THE KEY COMPONENTS THAT GO INTO CORE PCE WILL BE WITH EVERYONE WATCHING. CPI HAS RATE DECISION EVER RESTED ON ONE DECIMAL -- ULTIMATELY, PEOPLE ARE SAYING IT COULD COME DOWN TO THE DECIMAL POINT, SECOND OR THIRD DECIMAL POINT, WHETHER OR NOT RATES ARE HIKE.
丽莎：一个得到印证的观点是，高油价尚未破坏整体经济。“尚未”是关键措辞。我们会迎来临界点吗？本周四我们将公布生产者价格指数（PPI）。构成核心个人消费支出物价指数（PCE）的关键组成部分将受到密切关注。消费者价格指数（CPI）和利率决策往往取决于小数点后一位——最终，人们认为这可能取决于小数点后第二位或第三位，即是否加息。
ULTIMATELY, THE MARKET IS PRICED FOR RATE HIKES A TIME WERE EARNINGS KEEP COMING IN STRONG DESPITE THE FACT, YES, I DON'T WANT TO SAY STAGFLATIONARY, UT STAGFLATIONARY TYPERS OF PRESSURES. JONATHAN: THERE IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN .2 AND .3 DECIDING FACTORS AS TO WHETHER THIS FED HOLDS OR HIKES IN 10 OR 11 DAYS TIME. LISA: THIS IS WHAT EVERYONE HAS BEEN SAYING FOR A COUPLE OF YEARS. THIS IS NOT EXACTLY HOW WE OPERATE POLICY.
最终，市场已为加息定价，尽管确实存在滞胀型压力，但我并不想直接说“滞胀”， earnings（企业盈利）持续强劲。乔纳森：在美联储未来10到11天内维持现状还是加息之间，有0.2到0.3的决定性因素。丽莎：这正是过去几年大家一直在说的。但这并非我们制定政策的实际运作方式。
WE DO NOT REST ON ONE DATA POINT. CHRIS WALLER LAST WEEK SAID, WE'RE GOING TO REST ON ONE DATA POINT THAN HERE'S WHAT I'M LOOKING FOR. PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT HOW HIGH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR THEM TO HIKE. HOW HIGH IS IT FOR THEM NOT TO HIKE AT A TIME WHEN ULTIMATELY THIS ECONOMY AND THIS WORLD SEEMS TO BE AT GLOBAL RATE HIKING CYCLE. JONATHAN: CRUDE COME THE PROBLEM FOR THIS BOND MARKET STILL THIS MORNING AS THE PRICE OF OIL.
我们不会仅凭一个数据点就下结论。克里斯·沃勒上周表示，我们将不再仅凭一个数据点就采取行动，而是看看我在寻找什么。人们正在讨论他们加息的阈值有多高。在最终这个经济体以及这个世界似乎处于全球加息周期的背景下，他们不加息的阈值又有多高？乔纳森：原油价格上涨仍是今天早间债券市场的问题所在，因为油价上涨。
THE PRICE OF OIL IN THE FUTURE PATH FOR CRUDE LARGELY IN THE HANDS OF A COUPLE OF PEOPLE IN THAT NAME IS NOT KEVIN WARSH. ONE OF THOSE NAMES IS DONALD TRUMP. ANNMARIE: WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEK IT IS U.S. GO AFTER TANKERS WHO CONTINUOUSLY SEE A TIT-FOR-TAT ESCALATORY ENVIRONMENT ON TOP OF THAT THE HOUTHIS GOING AFTER SAUDI REFINERIES. THERE'S A LOT OF TROUBLE RIGHT NOW WHEN IT COMES TO THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND IT IS NOT GETTING BETTER IN TERMS OF TRULY REOPENING THAT WATERWAY.
未来原油价格路径很大程度上掌握在几个人手中，其中一位名叫凯文·沃尔什（Kevin Warsh）。另一个名字是唐纳德·特朗普。安玛丽：我们看到的是，本周美国针对继续看到报复性升级环境的油轮采取行动，此外胡塞武装还在袭击沙特炼油厂。目前在霍尔木兹海峡方面存在许多麻烦，而且从真正重新开放这条水道来看，情况并没有好转。
BEFORE WE WENT ON VACATION, WE WERE EVER SO CLOSE TO A PEACE AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF OMAN AND IRAN OPENING UP THE STRAIGHT OF HORMUZ AND YET THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED. JONATHAN: COMING UP, WE WILL CATCH UP WITH SEEMA SHAH IS RISING YIELDS DRUG EQUITIES LOWER. JON LIEBER AND KIT JUCKES. WE BEGIN THIS HOUR WITH THE OIL OUTCOME OF BOND YIELDS HIGHER. WRITING DESPITE POLICY UNCERTAINTY, TRADE TENSIONS AND YOUR POLITICAL CONFLICTS, IS EQUITIES REMAIN RESILIENT.
在我们休假之前，我们在阿曼和伊朗开放霍尔木兹海峡方面的和平协议上已经非常接近了，但这种情况并未发生。乔纳森：接下来，我们将与西玛·沙赫（Seema Shah）、杰森·利伯（Jon Lieber）和基特·贾克斯（Kit Juckes）取得联系。随着收益率上升、股市下跌，我们将从油价对债券收益率的影响开始本小时的报道。尽管存在政策不确定性、贸易紧张局势和政治冲突，股市是否仍然具有韧性？
SEEMA A, IS OIL ABOUT A CHALLENGE THAT RESILIENCY? SEEMA: I THINK THE RESILIENCY IS GOING TO COME DOWN TO WHAT THE FED IS DOING. THAT IS REALLY PAINFUL POSITION TO BE IN BECAUSE WE ARE NOT JUST TALKING ABOUT ONE HIKE. I THINK ONCE THE FED MOVES IF IT GOES, THE MARKET IMMEDIATELY IS GOING TO TURN ATTENTION TO A SERIES OF HIKES. HOW MANY HIKES. THAT IS WHEN YOU POTENTIALLY GET SOME RESISTANCE FOR EQUITIES. THE EARNINGS STORY IS GOING TO BE KEY.
西玛A，油价是否是这种韧性的挑战？西玛：我认为韧性将取决于美联储的行动。这是一个非常痛苦的处境，因为我们不仅仅是在谈论一次加息。我认为一旦美联储采取行动，如果它行动了，市场将立即转向关注一系列加息。有多少次加息？那时你可能会看到股市出现一些阻力。盈利故事将是关键。
IF EARNINGS IS STRONG, THE MICRO BACKDROP IS CONSTRUCTIVE THAN WE THINK EQUITIES CAN AT LEAST GET BEYOND THESE CHALLENGES AHEAD. WE DO THINK THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS ARE LIKELY TO BE PRETTY ROCKY WITH ONLY MODEST GAINS FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR. JONATHAN: THE BULLS MICE A DOUBLE DIGIT EARNINGS GROWTH WILL STILL GET IT DONE. WHAT TOWN ARE YOU IN? SEEMA: WE THINK WE ARE MOSTLY AT PEAK EARNINGS AND THAT DOES NOT MEAN YOU'RE GOING TO GET A MAJOR DECELERATION.
如果盈利强劲，微观背景是有利的，那么我们认为股市至少能够克服这些即将到来的挑战。我们认为接下来的几个月可能会相当动荡，今年余下的时间只有适度的增长。乔纳森：看涨者认为双位数的盈利增长仍将完成任务。你所在的城镇是什么？西玛：我们认为我们大多处于盈利峰值，这并不意味着你会经历大幅减速。
ARE THERE CONCERNS FOR 2027? FOR THE YEAR, WE THINK -- MORE CONSTRUCTIVE STORY. THE EVER BROADENING OUT. 2027, THAT IS WHEN THE DYNAMIC STARTS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRESSURED IS MAYBE THE FINANCIAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN. THAT WEIGHS ON BOTH CONSUMER AND THE INVESTMENT OUTLOOK. LISA: YOU SAID FINANCIAL CONDITIONS WHEN THEY CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN, WHEN HAVE THEY STARTED TO TIGHTEN? I THINK THAT IS THE KEY QUESTION, HOW MUCH OF THE DYNAMISM WAS IN EARNINGS AND OVERALL MARKET PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN PREDICATED ON REALLY EASY FINANCIAL CONDITIONS BY MANY METRICS, ESPECIALLY WITH CREDIT MARKETS SO WIDE OPEN?
2027年会有担忧吗？就今年而言，我们认为——更积极的故事。范围不断扩大。2027年，动态开始变得有些压力的时候，也许是金融条件继续收紧。这会对消费者和投资前景产生负面影响。丽莎：你说当金融条件继续收紧时，它们是从什么时候开始收紧的？我认为这是关键问题，有多少活力来自于收益，以及整体市场表现是基于许多指标下非常宽松的金融条件，尤其是信贷市场如此开放？
SEEMA: I AGREE. THE FINANCIAL CONDITIONS POINT FOR US HAS BEEN A GREAT ENVIRONMENT FOR INVESTORS, WHICHEVER SEGMENT THEY'RE LOOKING AT FROM PRIVATE MARKETS A PUBLIC MARKETS, THEY'VE BEEN LOOKING AT THE BACKDROP IS SOMETHING WHICH IS REALLY POSITIVE FOR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES. BUT WE ARE LIKELY TO GET TO THE POINT NOW WHERE THE CYCLE STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFICULT. EVEN IF YOU THINK ABOUT THE FED WHETHER THEY HIKE OR NOT, WE STILL THINK FINANCIAL CONDITIONS TIGHTENING.
西玛：我同意。对我们来说，金融条件一直是一个对投资者有利的环境，无论他们关注的是私募市场还是公开市场，背景都是对投资机会非常积极的。但我们可能会到达一个周期开始变得有点困难的阶段。即使你考虑美联储是否加息，我们仍然认为金融条件在收紧。
IMAGINE IF THE FED DOES NOT HIKE IN SEPTEMBER, BUT INFLATION IS STILL MOVING AT THAT PACE WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SO FAR THIS YEAR, THEN TO US YOU'RE GOING TO SEE A SELLOFF, A FED SELLOFF AND THEN TIGHTENING. HIKE WHERE THE MARKET STARTS TO MOVE TO A SERIES OF HIKES. FROM HERE, THE ARITHMETIC DOES BECOME A LOT MORE CHALLENGING FOR MARKETS. FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO TIGHTEN. THAT DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT CREDIT BUT IT MEANS THIS IS A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT TO ONE WE HAVE BEEN ENJOYING FOR THE PAST 18 MONTHS OR SO.
想象一下，如果美联储在9月不加息，但通胀仍保持我们今年到目前为止看到的步伐，那么对你我来说，你会看到抛售、美联储引发的抛售以及随后的收紧。加息后，市场开始转向一系列加息。从这里开始，算术对市场的挑战变得更大。金融条件将会收紧。这不一定是说你谈论的是信贷，但这意味着这是一个不如过去18个月左右我们所享受的环境。
LISA: WHAT IS THE BIGGEST HEADWIND, FED RATE HIKES OR MIDTERM ELECTIONS? SEEMA: WE SEE MIDTERM ELECTIONS TO CREATE A LOT OF NOISE AND VOLATILITY. THAT MUCH WE ARE EXPECTING TO CONTINUE OVER THE COMING MONTHS. ONE OF THE OTHER PARTS OF THE PRESSURE POINTS TO THE SECOND HALF OF THIS YEAR. ULTIMATELY, HISTORICALLY WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THIS TIME IS THE MARKET MOVES BEYOND AND ONLY GOES BACK TO THINKING ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTALS WHICH FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE IMPLIES THE FED IS REALLY THE MORE IMPORTANT MACRO FORCE THAT MARKETS ARE FACING.
丽莎：最大的逆风是什么，是美联储加息还是中期选举？西玛：我们认为中期选举会带来很多噪音和波动。这一点我们预计在未来几个月内会继续存在。另一个压力点是在今年下半年。最终，从历史上看，我们预计这会持续下去，这次市场会超越并只回到思考基本面的状态，从这个角度来看，这意味着美联储确实是市场面临的更重要的宏观力量。
AS YOU HAVE BEEN SAYING, NOBODY REALLY KNOWS WHAT THE RIGHT THING TO DO IS AT THIS POINT BECAUSE THERE SO MANY DIFFERENT UNCERTAIN FACTORS EVEN FROM THE POINT OF OIL PRICES, WHEN INFLATION PRINT. THERE SO MUCH POTENTIAL FOR POLICY ERROR AT THE MOMENT THAT EQUITIES ARE GOING TO NEED SOME TIME TO DIGEST WHATEVER MOOD IT IS WHETHER IT IS A HOLD OR HIKE TO BE ABLE TO FIND ITS PATH GOING FORWARD. ANNMARIE: IS THE BAR HIGH FOR THE FED BECAUSE IT COMES AHEAD OF THE MIDTERM ELECTION?
正如你所说，目前没人真正知道该怎么做，因为存在太多不同的不确定因素，从油价到通胀数据公布。当前政策失误的可能性很大，因此股市需要时间来消化当前的情绪，无论是维持利率不变还是加息，才能找到未来的方向。安玛丽：美联储面临的门槛很高吗？因为它在中期选举之前采取行动？
SEEMA: IT IS IN AWAY BECAUSE IF YOU GET PAST SEPTEMBER AND YOU HAVE NOT HAD A HIKE, IT IS VERY UNLIKELY I THINK THE FED IS GOING TO MOVE JUST A FEW WEEKS BEFORE THE MIDTERMS. THAT MEANS OCTOBER IS OUT. THEN YOU'RE LOOKING TO DECEMBER. THERE'S A LOT OF POLITICAL HURDLES I THINK FOR THE FED AT THE MOMENT. EVEN HEARING THE TRUMP COMMENTS ON FRIDAY DOESN'T MEAN CREDIBILITY HAS BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE. FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE, I THINK THE BAR IN TERMS OF WHAT THE INFLATION PRINT NEEDS TO BE COME INFLATION PRINT NEEDS TO BE THAT MUCH LOWER NOW G
西玛：确实如此，因为如果你熬过了九月且没有加息，我认为美联储不太可能在中期选举前几周行动。这意味着十月已经排除在外。那么就要看十二月了。我认为美联储目前面临很多政治障碍。即使听到特朗普周五的评论，也不意味着可信度成为更大的问题。从这个角度来看，我认为就通胀数据而言，美联储面临的门槛现在变得更高了，通胀数据需要更低才行。
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