Natixis：日元基本面不同以往，预计日本央行将连续加息
Yen's Fundamentals 'Different This Time Around,' Natixis Says
We think that the yen, as you know, um, is going to be different this time around. It's undervaluation has been wine widely known. If you look at its, um, real effective exchange rate relative to its historical, it's extremely undervalue. And that's in the -20 something percent. Now if you look even consider factors such as fundamentals such as net asset are um, uh, overseas. Um, uh, terms of trade. Japan has been doing really well.
我们认为，正如大家所知，日元这次的情况将有所不同。其低估已被广泛知晓。如果观察其相对于历史水平的实际有效汇率，它被严重低估了，幅度在20%以上。现在，如果我们进一步考虑基本面因素，例如海外净资产、贸易条件等，日本的状况一直非常好。
Well, the yen continue to be weak. Now this time, why is it different? It is different because the BOJ is going to hike not just once but it's going to hike. What markets expect to be a steeper hike than the fed. The second thing is that uh we are looking at reshoring of capital. Um, the largest pension funds is under discussion of reallocation. And there is speculation that this low ratio that they have for domestic bonds can rise further.
然而，日元持续走弱。那么这次为何不同？不同之处在于，日本银行（BOJ）不仅会加息一次，而且市场预计其加息幅度将比美联储更陡峭。第二点是资金回流。最大的养老基金正在讨论重新配置资产，并且有 speculation 认为它们目前较低的国内债券比例可能会进一步上升。
So the reshoring of not just the Japanese investors, the hiking of interest rates, and also on top of that, the fact that JGB yields are very, very attractive and the yen is undervalue, which means that we both have a valuation and also attractiveness of the yen pool and also foreign investors. So all these factors I think means that this time it really is different. And there is a lot of room for movement. And if you were to consider that the yen, the precursor of that is a Korean War on the Korean War was weakening for the longest time, despite the fact that earnings were parabolic, despite the fact that the current account is approaching 20% of GDP.
因此，不仅是日本投资者的资金回流，还有利率上调，再加上日债收益率极具吸引力以及日元被低估，这意味着无论是日元池还是外国投资者，都兼具估值优势和吸引力。我认为所有这些因素表明，这次真的不同。而且存在很大的波动空间。如果你考虑到日元的前身——朝鲜战争期间的韩元——尽管盈利呈抛物线式增长，经常账户占GDP比重接近20%，但在很长一段时间内仍在走弱。
Despite of the fact that all these positive factors with growth firing on all cylinders, it was weakening. But when it, uh, appreciated, it was extremely fast and unprecedented.
尽管所有积极因素都在推动增长全速运转，但它仍在走弱。但当它升值时，速度极快且前所未有。
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