德国极右翼在州选举中获43.8%选票成第一大党

MONDAY MORNING, GOOD MORNING. IT’S MONDAY THE 7TH. A LOT GOING ON. TECH STOCKS ARE HAVING A REALLY GOOD DAY IN ASIA. THIS AFTER FRIDAY’S BIG CHIP RALLY ON WALL STREET. IN SOME WAYS THAT WAS THE STORY FROM FRIDAY. OPENAI’S NEW RELEASE SEEMS TO BE THE CATALYST FOR THAT. THE U.S. AND IRAN BOTH LAUNCHING MISSILES AT OIL TANKERS. CRUDE UP ON THE BACK OF THAT STORY AND HERE IN EUROPE, GERMANY’S FAR RIGHT PARTY DID VERY WELL IN THE WEEKEND’S ELECTIONS.

LET’S TALK YOU THROUGH THE MARKET THIS MORNING. FRIDAY YOU GET THE BIG PAYROLL NUMBER BUT IN SOME WAYS THE REAL STORY IS THE BIG CHIP RALLY ON THE BIG OF THE AI RELEASE. THE KOSPI REALLY UP, 4.29%. THAT NARRATIVE KIND OF COMES TO A CONCLUSION IN AROUND AN HOUR’S TIME BECAUSE EUROPE IS GOING TO OPEN. NO U.S. SESSION TODAY BECAUSE IT’S A THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. FUTURES ARE FLAT. BRENT CRUDE IS UP 1.53% AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE TROUBLE IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

WE’LL COME BACK TO THAT STORY. THERE IS A LOT GOING ON DESPITE THE FACT THERE’S A HOLIDAY IN THE UNITED STATES. THE COUNTDOWN TO THE OPENING TRADE HERE IN EUROPE STARTS RIGHT NOW. OK, SO LET’S GET THINGS GOING. MONDAY MORNING YOU HAVE A U.S. HOLIDAY COMING UP. A STORY OUT OF THE STATES FRIDAY, TECH DID REALLY WELL FRIDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE OPENAI WAS THE CATALYST. OVERNIGHT ASIA HAS CARRIED ON WITH THAT TRADE AND PICKED IT UP NICELY.

YOU CAN SEE THE NUMBERS ON YOUR SCREEN. LOOK AT THE RALLY OUT OF THE KOSPI. JAPAN HAD A GOOD OVERNIGHT AS WELL. FRIDAY WAS THE CATALYST FOR THAT. THE PHILADELPHIA STEP CONDUCTOR INDEX UP 3.4. ANTHONY STEPHENS JOINING US OUT OF HONG KONG. GOOD MORNING. IS THE ASIA RALLY JUST A REACTION TO WHAT WE SAW ON WALL STREET FRIDAY? STEPANTHONY: THAT PLUS A BIT OF A KICKER AS WELL. THE USE CASES COMING THROUGH ON G.P.T.6, THE FACT IT CAN USE SOFTWARE PRETTY MUCH LIKE A HUMAN BEING AND THAT HAS JENSEN HUANG ON X TALKING ABOUT IT.

ASIA IS RUNNING WITH THIS. THIS REIGNITES THE CASE FOR COMPUTER PROCESSING POWER AND MEMORY WHICH HAD BEEN A LITTLE BIT SLUMPING. SO NOW YOU HAVE KOREA WHICH IS MUCH CLEANER IN POSITIONING COMING INTO THIS NEWS FLOW. NOW WE HAVE A CLEAN RALLY AND YOU’RE SEEING THAT MOVE NOT ONLY IN KOREA BUT IN JAPAN AS WELL. SOFTBANK IS UP ALMOST 10% BECAUSE IT IS DIRECTLY CORRELATED TO ITS OPENAI STAKE. GUY: TALK ME THROUGH THIS CHINA STORY.

CHINA IS PUTTING AROUND 45 BILLION WON INTO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IS THERE GOING TO BE THE DEMAND FOR THAT MONEY? ANTHONY: AND THAT’S THE 100 BILLION QUESTION. BECAUSE THERE ARE CURRENTLY LOWER RATES IN CHINA AND CREDIT DEMAND IS STILL WEAK. THE PRANKS ARE LENDING TO EACH OTHER IN THE SBERBANK MARKET SO THEY’RE PROBABLY LOOKING TO SHOCK THE SYSTEM BUT TO DO THAT YOU NEED TO BUILD CAPITAL BUFFERS FIRST. THERE ARE 360 BILLION WON BEING REBUILT.

THEY CAN TAKE THAT DELUSION AT THIS POINT IN TIME. THE MINISTER OF FINANCE IS BUYING PRESUMABLY 300 BILLION BECAUSE THEY’RE LOOKING TO RAISE THAT AMOUNT IN SPECIAL BONDS. SO IS THE REMAINING BILLIONS IS IN COMPANIES NOW. YOU’RE SEEING THE STREET REALLY LEAN INTO THIS. THEY EXPECT MORE EASING FROM CHINA. THEY EXPECT SHARE PRICE INCREASES IN THE PARTNER. IT WAS INTERESTING THAT AMIDST ALL THE PRICE ACTION IN THE U.S. ON FRIDAY, THERE WERE A BUNCH OF CALLS ON U.S.

E.T.F. GUY: PRAY ROLLS IN SOME RESPECTS WAS A BIT OF A NONEVENT. WE KNEW THAT THE LABOR MARKET WAS OK. DIDN’T KNOW WAS THAT OK. THE CHIP RALLY WAS INTERESTING BUT NOW WE GET TO THE BIG ONE. U.S. C.P.I. LATER THIS WEEK. IS THAT THE PIVOT POINT WHEN THE MARKET FINALLY DECIDES YES OR NO ON THE FED RAISING RATES? ANTHONY: ABSOLUTELY BECAUSE THE C.P.I. IS WHAT THE FED HAVE SAID THEY’RE LOOKING AT. IF YOU LOOK AT THE U.S. JOB MARKET DATA, THERE WERE A FEW BONES TO PICK WITH IT.

IT WAS SEASONAL WORKING, THE WAGES WERE LOWER. THERE’S A LOT OF MOVING PARTS UNDERNEATH THE WHOLE U.S. JOB MARKET SO IT’S NOT A CLEAR PICTURE THERE. YOU HAVE INFLATION AND LAG INFLATION SO IT’S GOING TO BE A REACTION. DOES THE FED TACKLE INFLATION OR HAVE A KIND OF CRISIS OF FAITH WITH THE LABOR FACTOR? THAT IS GOING TO FIELD WITH THE EQUITY MARKET STORY AND AT THE MOMENT IT’S ALMOST DISCONNECTED FROM THE BOND MARKET BUT IF INFLATION STARTS TO BE ROCKET FUELED BY IN AI INVESTMENT BOOM THEN YOU MIGHT GET THE EQUITY MARKET WORRY.

LAST WEEK THE DOLLAR DID ABSOLUTELY NOTHING WHEN IT CAME TO THE JOBS NUMBER. THE BLOOMBERG, THE XY WAS ONLY .7 UP. THE YEN IS LOOKING TO THE B.O.J. TO DO SOMETHING. GUY: THANKS FOR THE UPDATE. REALLY APPRECIATE IT. ANTHONY STEPHENS OUT OF HONG KONG WITH THE LATEST WITH THE MARKET STORY IN ASIA OUT OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. LET’S TALK ABOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. MONDAY THE MARKETS ARE CLOSED BOTH IN THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA.

IT’S LABOR DAY. WE’RE GOING TO PICK THE NARRATIVE BACK UP TUESDAY. YOU HAVE TUESDAY, CANADA’S RETALIATORY TARIFFS KICKING IN AGAINST THE UNITED STATES. CHINA CPI. THIS WAS THE OFF-CALENDAR ANNOUNCEMENT BY SCOTT BESSENT. WATCH THAT ONE CAREFULLY. THURSDAY THAT ECB DECISION AND ALSO P.P.I. FRIDAY WE GET U.S. C.P.I. SO IT’S A REALLY PACKED WEEK THAT WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE C.P.I. DATA ON FRIDAY. LET’S TALK ABOUT THE EUROPEAN NARRATIVE THIS MORNING.

IN SOME WAY’S EUROPE’S STORY THIS MORNING IS VERY DIFFERENT AND IT COMES DOWN TO POLITICS BECAUSE THE FAR RIGHT ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY HAS SCORED ITS BEST EVER RESULT IN SAXONY ANHALT THIS WEEKEND. THE AFD SECURED 43.8% OF THE STATE’S VOTE. THE AFD IS NOW SAXONY-ANHALT’S LARGEST PARTY. THIS PUTS ENORMOUS PRESSURE ON FRIEDRICH MERITS. YOU ONLY HAVE TO LOOK AT THE GERMAN PAPERS THIS MORNING. HOW MUCH LONGER CAN HE LAST AS THE GERMAN CHANCELLOR IS THE KEY QUESTION BEING ASKED THIS MORNING.

OLIVER CROOK IS IN BERLIN. TALK TO ME ABOUT THE IMPLICATIONS OF WHAT HAPPENED THIS WEEKEND. OLIVER: WE THINK ABOUT THE MORNING, THIS MORNING FOR THE MAN SITTING IN THE OFFICE BEHIND ME, CHANCELLOR MERITS. HE’S BEEN -- MERDZ. HE’S BEEN WEAK BASICALLY SINCE DAY ONE AND NOW EVEN WEAKER. THE AFD SCORED ABOUT 44% OF THE VOTE. HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED IN THE POLLING THAT LED UP TO THIS. BUT THERE’S A HUGE FRAGMENTATION OF ALL OF THESE POLITICAL PARTIES SO THERE’S REALLY NOT ANY CLEAR PATH FOR ANY KIND OF GOVERNMENT FOR SAXONY-ANHALT AT THIS POINT.

YOU GET A FARCICAL MIX OF POLITICAL AGENDAS FROM THE FAR LEFT. FROM THE BREAKAWAY PARTY TO THE C.D.U. SO IT’S DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW THIS IS GOING TO TURN INTO A GOVERNMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. THAT THE AFD ARE HOPING THAT MAYBE A COUPLE OF BREAKAWAY LAWMAKERS WOULD VOTE FOR PRESIDENT OF THE REGION SO SOME DISGRUNTLED CDU LAWMAKERS. BUT IT’S A HUGE REFERENDUM FOR FREDERICK MERTZ. THE SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZES ENTERPRISES VAGUE THAT THE LAST GOVERNMENT FAILED, THIS GOVERNMENT IS FAILING AND MERTZ, THERE’S A LOT OF DOUBT WHETHER HE’S GOING TO MAKE END OF HIS CHANCELLORSHIP.

THERE ARE NOT A LOT OF OTHER PEOPLE FOR THE OTHER PARTIES THAT COULD REPLACE HIM. GUY: LET’S FIGURE OUT WHAT HAPPENS NEXT. THERE ARE A BUNCH OF OTHER REGIONAL ELECTIONS COMING UP TOO. SAXONY-ANHALT IS RURAL AND ELDERLY AND IT’S NOT THAT REPRESENTATIVE OF GERMANY. CAN YOU EXTRAPOLATE THIS RESULT INTO SOME OF THE OTHER REGIONAL ELECTIONS AND CAN THE AFD KEEP MOMENTUM MOVING? OLIVER: WE’RE TALKING ABOUT A REGION THAT GERMANY WHICH IS LIT -- GERMANY WHICH IS LITERALLY THE POOREST REGION IN ALL OF GERMANY.

IT’S ALSO A REGION OF ONLY 2.3 MILLION. THE 85 MILLION PEOPLE AROUND BROADER GERMANY. EVEN IF YOU DID GET AN A.F.D. GOVERNMENT, YOU’D HAVE LIMITED INFLUENCE IN TERMS OF THE NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICS BUT THERE IS THIS SENSE OF MOMENTUM. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE NATIONAL POLLING, THE AFD IS STILL THE NUMBER ONE PARTY KNEW WITHIN GERMANY. THEY’RE BIGGER THAN THE CDU SO THERE’S A SENSE THAT MOMENTUM IS BUILDING. THE CO-LEADER OF THE PARTY SAID IT’S AN HISTORIC DAY AND THEY NOW HAVE A MANDATE TO GOVERN.

THERE ARE SOME ELECTIONS IN THE EASTERN GERMAN STATES SO THERE’S LIKELY GOING TO BE SOME STRONG REPRESENTATION FOR THE AFD FOR THE END OF THIS YEAR BUT THERE IS THIS SENSE OF THE AFD REALLY GAINING MOMENTUM AND DESPITE THE FACT THEY’RE

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