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THIS IS "THE PULSE WITH FRANCINE LACQUA." FRANCINE: GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME. I'M FRANCINE LACQUA IN LONDON. THE U.S. AND IRAN HAVE TRADED WHAT APPEARED TO BE THEIR LARGEST ATTACK ON OIL T TANKERS. IN RETALIATION FOR A BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK ON U.S. WARSHIPS. IRAN SAYS IT WILL DECLARE A NEW RESTRICTED ZONE OUTSIDE OF HORMUZ IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR MORE, WE ARE JOINED BY BLOOMBERG'S MANAGING EDITOR FOR THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA.

WHAT EXACTLY IS DIFFERENT ABOUT THIS LAST ESCALATION? ONUR: THIS ESCALATION IS THE LARGEST ONE EVER INVOLVING VESSELS. IT WAS THE FIRST TIME IRAN LAUNCHED ANTI-SHIP MISSILES AT U.S. NAVY SHIPS. IRAN IS ALSO SIGNALING IT WILL BE MORE ASSERTIVE GOING FORWARD AND PLEDGE TO ANNOUNCE A NEW RESTRICTED AREA BETWEEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND THE LINE DEFINING WHERE THE U.S. NAVAL BLOCKADE IS LOCATED. THE PROBLEM FOR IRAN IS IT DOES NOT WANT A CONTINUATION OF U.S.

NAVAL BLOCKADE BECAUSE THAT IS PREVENTING TEHRAN FROM EXPORTING ITS ENERGY. THE RISK IS WE MIGHT SEE A MORE ASSERTIVE AND POSSIBLY MORE AGGRESSIVE APPROACH BY IRAN, INCREASING ITS SHIPS AND ATTACKS ON MARITIME SHIPPING IN HORMUZ, WHICH WOULD FURTHER BOOST ENERGY PRICES GOING FORWARD OF. THE DOWNSIDE RISK TO THIS SCENARIO IS A POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH. JUST A FEW MINUTES AGO, WE HAVE SEEN STATEMENTS COMING OUT OF TEHRAN WHERE IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTER SAID THEY ARE AT ADVANCED STAGES OF TALKS WITH OMANIS TO DESIGNATE A TEMPORARY LANE FOR SHIPPING THROUGH HORMUZ.

WE ARE ALSO SEEING OIL IS REACTING TO THAT PIECE OF NEWS. WHAT'S IMPORTANT IS IRAN HAS REPEAT -- HAS REPEATEDLY SAID A RESUMPTION OF MARITIME TRAFFIC THROUGH HORMUZ WILL REQUIRE THE U.S. TO MEET TEHRAN'S DEMANDS, NAMELY THE LIFTING OF SANCTIONS, LIFTING THE NAVAL BLOCKADE, AND ENDING ALL WAR AGAINST THE IRAN-BACKED GROUPS. THAT IS A WORD OF CAUTION AS TO WHAT THESE COMMENTS MIGHT MEAN. FRANCINE: ONUR, THANK YOU SO MUCH.

RISING OIL PRICES WEIGHING ON MARKETS THIS MORNING. THE LOSSES OFFSET A FRESH BATCH OF OPTIMISM ALONG THE AI TRAIT AS THE U.S. IS CLOSE FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. LET'S GET MORE WITH THE HEAD OF GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION -- THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. WHAT IS YOUR TAKE ON WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IN THE MIDDLE EAST BUT ALSO HOW MARKETS SHOULD BEHAVE GIVEN ALL THESE UNKNOWNS? ALAIN: SO, THE MARKETS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN BETWEEN THE HOPE OF A DEAL, WHICH WILL QUIET DOWN THE SITUATION AND ESCALATION AS WE'VE BEEN LISTENING A MINUTE AGO.

THAT IS WHY, I WOULD TRADE THE OIL PRICE FOR NOW. THERE ARE RISKS OF EXTREMES. ONE THING FOR SURE IS THE VOLATILITY CAN STAY RELATIVELY HIGH ON OIL BECAUSE GLOBAL INVENTORIES ARE VERY LOW. THAT IS THE CASE FOR OIL AND FOR GAS ALSO. A LITTLE PIECE OF NEWS AS WE HAD DURING THE WEEKEND CAN TRIGGER A SIGNIFICANT VOLATILITY REGIME. SO, IN THE BACKGROUND, THESE TWO FEATURES MAKE A TRADING RANGE WHICH CAN BE QUITE LARGE. I WOULD TRADE UP THE VOLATILITY FOR A LONG TIME.

THE END TARGET OF THE U.S. IS TO CONTROL THE MILITARY OPERATION, TO CONTROL NUCLEAR WHICH IS THE ENDGAME OF THIS WAR. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME. FRANCINE: TALK TO ME ABOUT RISING BOND YIELDS. THERE ARE VARIOUS REASONS OR VARIOUS DIFFERENT EXPLANATIONS AS WHY THIS MIGHT BE HAPPENING BUT WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL STOP IT? ALAIN: I THINK A FEW ITEMS CAN BRING DOWN THE RISING BOND YIELDS. AS A JUSTIFICATION FOR NOMINAL YIELDS IS THE GROWTH IN NOMINAL GDP.

YOU HAVE FISCAL SPENDING UNABATED. GERMANY AND JAPAN FOR THE BIGGEST FISCAL SPENDING AT THE STATE LEVEL. YOU HAVE VICKI INFLATION. THAT IS ONE. YOU HAVE REAL GROWTH GOING UP. IN PARALLEL, THE INFLATION IS STICKY SO NOMINAL GDP GROWTH IS ACCELERATING. THAT'S A BIG CHANGE IN THE EARLY 20 20'S FROM THE FULLY NOMINAL GDP AND BOND YIELD. I THINK WE ARE IN A SECULAR RISE IN NOMINAL GDP. WE ARE LOOKING AT THE NEWS FLOW FROM THE AI CAPEX, AND THE HUGE INFRASTRUCTURE WHICH IS LARGER THAN AI.

ALL THIS LEADS TO DEMAND FOR CAPITAL AND LEADS TO HIGHER BOND YIELDS. THE MUCH TOUGHER CENTRAL BANKS. WE'RE DEBATING TOO HIGH FOR THE ECB. MAY DEBATE TWO HIKES FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND THAT'S A BIGGER QUESTION MARK WITH THE PRESSURE FROM THE PRESIDENCY IN WASHINGTON. I DON'T THINK THIS IS GOING TO BREAK THE ECONOMIC CYCLE. I DON'T THINK IT WILL BREAK THE FEARS OF HIGHER INFLATION. FRANCINE: WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR EQUITIES -- ALAIN, WHAT IS THE READ ACROSS FOR EQUITIES?

ALAIN: SO, WE HAVE SUBSTANTIAL UPGRADE OF EARNINGS FORECAST YEAR TO DATE. WE STARTED THE YEAR FOR U.S. S&P 500 EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS SLIGHTLY UNDER 15% TO 30%. FOR EUROPE, MOST EUROPEAN SPECIALISTS WERE TELLING US EARNINGS WOULD GROW NORMAL THAN 5%, CONSENSUS ABOVE 10%. WE ARE ABOVE 20%. SO, YOU HAVE A RISE IN BOND YIELDS AND A SIGNIFICANT RISE AND UPGRADE OF EXPECTATION. THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM HAS THAT CHANGED A LOT YEAR TO DATE.

A LOT MORE EXPENSIVE NOW THAN THEY WERE IN THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION, WE READ ON OUR MODELS ON THE RISK PREMIUM, EQUITY TO BOND VALUATION THAT EVERYTHING ELSE BEING EQUAL, BOND YIELDS, 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD'S AT 5.5% WOULD BREAK THAT TREND. THAT MEANS EARNINGS WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH FOR THE BOND YIELDS RISING. 5.5% IS MY THRESHOLD ON TREASURY YIELDS FROM WHICH EQUITIES START TO BE TAPPED. FRANCINE: WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE -- WE SPEND A LOT OF TIME TALKING ABOUT JAPAN AND THE POLICY MEETING.

WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES OF WHAT WE COULD SEE WITH THEM? I KNOW THERE ARE VARIOUS EVENTS COMING UP IN JAPAN, BUT HOW DOES THAT TRANSLATE INTO WHAT THE REST OF THE WORLD AND FINANCIAL MARKETS COULD DO? ALAIN: SO, THE KEY THING AND WHAT YOU ARE DEBATING IS THE SPEED AT WHICH THE CHANGE TO POLICYMAKING. THAT IS FROM THE GOVERNMENT ADMINISTRATION. THEY ARE GOING VERY FAST INTO REINVENTING JAPAN'S SECTORS, HIGHER NOMINAL GDP GROWTH.

THAT LEADS TO A HIGHER YIELD ENVIRONMENT. THE BANK OF JAPAN IS VERY LAZY, VERY SLOW IN NORMALIZING POLICY. DEBATING THE SPEED AT WHICH THEY NORMALIZE AND THE CAPITAL APPROPRIATION AT RISK. FRANCINE: I CUT YOU OFF BECAUSE WE ARE GETTING AHEAD LET ON THE BLOOMBERG TERMINAL SAYING YEN HAS BEEN RISING TO THE STRONGEST SINCE MAY, TOPPING THE INTERVENTION RALLY. AS THE MARKET GOING TO TEST ANY INTERVENTION? ALAIN: THE INTERVENTION -- SOMETHING VERY IMPORTANT AND THE BANK OF JAPAN SPENT $1 BILLION IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS TO CAP THE YEN.

BUT INTERVENTION, WHAT WE SEE, THE UNDERLYING FEATURE IS THE BANK OF JAPAN MUST RAISE INTEREST RATES TO TWO PERCENT QUICKER THAN WHAT THEY SAID TODAY WHICH IS THE END OF 2027. THEY NEED INTERVENTION, OTHERWISE THE YEN GOES TO 170. IT IS A PERIOD IN BETWEEN WE ARE MANAGING. THE FEAR OF INTERVENTION HAS LED TO THE CFTC POSITION ON CURRENCY MARKETS. THE NEXT POSITION ON THE YEN TO BE SLIGHTLY LONG WHICH IS NEW BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN WORKING YEARS BEING SHORT AGAINST THE YEN.

THE YEN SEEMS NOT TO BE ANYMORE THE VERY FASHIONABLE IN TERMS OF CURRENT TRADE. YES, WE WILL SEE VOLATILITY ON THE YEN WITH INTERVENTION. THE TRUE RISE OF THE YEN TO A BIGGER FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL WILL BE WHEN THE BANK OF JAPAN ACCELERATES A RATE HIKE. VOLATILITY WITH THE FEAR OF INTERVENTION, BUT THE NEXT INTERVENTION ON THE RIGHT POLICY. FRANCINE: ALAIN, THANK YOU AS ALWAYS FOR JOINING US. NOW, GERMANY'S FAR RIGHT PARTY HAS SCORED ITS BEST EVER RESULT IN A STATE ELECTION, SURPASSING THE CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION.

ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY SECURED 43.8% OF THE VOTE IN SAXONY-ANHALT, FALLING SHORT OF A GOVERNMENT MAJORITY. THE COLEADER OF THE PARTY CELEBRATED THE VICTORY.

45%, IT SEEMS THAT IS A MANDATE TO GOVERN. THIS MANDATE IS NOT LIMITED TO SAXONY-ANHALT. IT' APPLIES TO EVERY FEDERAL STATE AND TO THE UPCOMING FEDERAL ELECTIONS. WE CURRENTLY ACCEPT THIS MANDATE TO GOVERN AND WE WILL ASSUME THE RESPONSIBILITY OF GOVERNING HERE IN SAXONY-ANHALT, AND AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL WITH THE NEXT COALITION GOVERNMENT LED BY THE AFD, DEAR FRIENDS. FRANCINE: LET'S GET MORE WITH OUR CHIEF EUROPE CORRESPONDENT OLIVER CROOK WHO IS BEEN BERLIN.

HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THE RESULT FOR GERMANY AS A WHOLE GOING FORWARD? OLIVER: YEAH, A FEW THINGS TO UN PACK. THE AFD DOES NOT YET HAVE A

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