强劲就业数据推高9月加息概率至60%

The countdown is on. Everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day. This is the close. A job surprise throws a wrench in the rally heading into this holiday weekend. Live from Studio 2 at Bloomberg headquarters in New York, I'm Scarlett Fu. And I'm Christina Kino. We're kicking you off to closing bell here in the US.

All right, with an hour to go, let's show you what's going on in equity markets. You have the S&P 500 down 4/10en of 1% giving back some of yesterday's gains as good news is bad news. That stronger than expected jobs report sending stocks and short-term bonds lower. The VIX comes down to 14. The 2-year yield, you can see up four basis points to 4.37%. Uh this tenor of course is the most sensitive to Fed policy. And dollar yen dollar is higher versus the yen today.

The yen had a big big rally yesterday. So this is a little bit of a give back from yesterday's move. Christine.

All right, Scarlet. Let's take a look at some of the equity movers today. Starting with Tesla. Those shares down more than 5%, nearly 6% at the moment because of a cyber cab launch that was less substantial and more low-key than Wall Street had expected. And on top of that, they're also now facing some investigations from regulators saying and wanting to investigate the data that Tesla used to selfcertify its vehicles.

We're also taking a look at Robin Hood shares today. Down just a little bit, 1.3% at the moment. And that is because AMC CEO Adam Aron criticized Robin Hood after the platform launched a tokenized version of the theater chains shares. He called the product quote contemptable and outrageous. Also looking at Fair Isaac, we all know it as FICO. They're down 15% more than 15% at the moment. That is after Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Palty renewed his long-standing criticism of the costs of consumer credit scores.

And finally, Ludu Lemon shares also down majorly here today. 17 and a half% here on the 8-year low for the stock after the retailer cut its fullear outlook for a second straight quarter.

Yeah, it's a a bit of a mess over at Lululemon that the new co has to uh clean up. All right, let's go back to the economic data because the much stronger than expected August jobs report has traders increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as soon as later this month. Look at the white line. It tracks the odds of a rate hike in September. It's now sitting at 60%, largely rising since the start of the Iran war at the end of February.

The blue line tracks the probability of a rate increase in December, and it's now more than one in two odds at 53%. So with that in mind, let's kick things off right now with Julie Beiel. She is portfolio manager and senior research analyst at Kane Anderson RDN Investment Management. Julie, thank you so much for speaking with us. Um, we know that rising Treasury yields is something that the government, the White House has been very focused on.

This jobs report does not help out, does it?

No, absolutely not. But I you know and I think with given all the commentary and the posturing we've heard from the Fed you know everyone was a little bit nervous about where we are ending up with inflation and you know before we had enough softness in the job market that people were concerned that might be going away. Now there are particulars about this report that make me think we need probably another month or two of data in order to really draw strong conclusions.

But I think from here what's really important to recognize is that yes, the Fed is really important at the front end of the curve. But what people really care about is the tenure and beyond. And I think that's really much more a function of the longer term impacts of inflation and deficit spending.

Absolutely. And what we're seeing when it comes to the economy, the real economy, is that there's an affordability issue and consumers are definitely being much more selective about how they spend. When you look at the decliners in stocks today, the biggest group decliner is consumer discretionary which includes retailers, homebuilders, and automakers, how do you go about looking at consumer stocks in this kind of environment?

I think the most important thing is I feel like everyone is doing a lot of shortorthhand that says I don't want any exposure to the low-income consumer because they're the most negatively impacted by what's going on with inflation. And I think at a broad level that's true, but then why is Hermes's stock down 27% over the last 12 months and Dollar Tree is up 27% in the last 12 months? To me, that's really a function of how well each of the retailers is able to deliver actual value.

It really doesn't actually matter what level of income stream. What you need is for customers to come into your store for you to execute well enough that you go in there and you can recognize, wow, that's a good that's a fair actually not even good. That's a fair price to pay for something. That's all we're really looking for. We're so value starved. So, I think it's a little bit lazy to just say I don't want exposure to the low-income consumer because we know that retail sales are broadly holding up.

It's just they're being much more selective. Just ask Lulu.

Yeah. Well, that makes a lot of sense. Of course, in this environment, Julie, I mean, a lot of consumers, whether they're high income or low income, very much focused on inflation and costs at the moment, and one of your arguments is that we have lost some of that technology-driven inflation that has previously kept a lid on prices. Where do you see the inflation story developing from here? Do you think it's going to be a structurally higher era of prices from here?

I you know I think it's really hard to have any kind of strength in predicting because one of the larger inputs in terms of oil prices and what that means for transports and supply chains that is such a major question it's really hard to pin that down and what's difficult is that for decades we've really relied on technology to put a lot of downward pressure on inflation. You and I don't feel it because the iPhone price is pretty much the same or goes up.

But, you know, the way that we calculate inflation is how much more bang do you get for your buck? And we do technically get a lot more bang for our buck. Although, it just feels like it's just better pictures, but that's neither here nor there. But I think the real function is that we've really relied on technology for a long time to put downward pressure on prices, and that's going away given all of the supply constraints that we have for the AI data center buildout.

So, I do worry a little bit if it's going to be even harder now to hold prices down.

Yeah. And definitely certainly a difficult task for the Federal Reserve on that very issue. Julie, I mean, given all the inputs that you've highlighted into inflation, we're talking about energy prices and also some of the technology uh driven dynamics there. Does that just make the Federal Reserve's job much harder here because they're using such a blunt tool as interest rates?

Yeah, I think that's right. And I think that's part of what Chair Wars is trying to orient everyone towards is that that they don't actually manage interest rates by themselves. the bond market actually has a much much bigger stick to whack everyone with. And I think that that's an important distinction. You know, part of the struggle that we've all had is, you know, we really enjoyed getting the answers to the test in terms of all of the Fed forecasts and all of, you know, all of the yield curves and everything that they gave us ahead of time so that we would know where they were going, but it does pigeon hole them in a certain to a certain extent and it it reduces how data dependent they really can be in terms of having discretion to make moves.

So, I understand the desire to move away from that

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