9月非农超预期，美联储加息预期升温

VERY GOOD AFTERNOON, WE ARE LIVE ON BLOOMBERG TV RADIO, STREAMING ON YOUTUBE AND BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS. ONCE AGAIN, I AM NOT ECSTATIC, THAT IS NOT CAROL NASSER. NO, IT IS NOT THE WEEKEND. HE ARE SUBBING IN FOR THIS FIRST HOUR BEFORE WE KICK IT OVER TO TIM AND MOLLIE SMITH OR ACTUALLY HOSTING FROM THE U.S. OPEN. FOR RIGHT NOW YOU'RE STUCK WITH US. HOWEVER, WE DO HAVE A LOT IN STORE FOR YOU TODAY.

LET'S GET IN WITH A QUICK CHECK OF THE MARKETS. WE HAVE THE S&P DOWN ABOUT THREE TONS OF 1%. THE DOW DOWN ABOUT 0.5%. THE NASDAQ DOWN ABOUT 1/10 OF 1%. RAIN ON THE SCREEN FOR THE TWO YEAR AND THE 10 YEAR RIGHT NOW. IT'S A JOB STAY. ONE HUNTED 62,000, SO IT IS A BIG NUMBER. WE ARE GOING TO GO TO OUR CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST LITTLE BIT LATER.

HE IS HERE UNTIL YOU TO RUN HER THROUGH THE WHITE HOUSE REACTION TO THIS. WE'VE ALREADY SEEN SOME -- THEY ARE NOT TWEETS ANYMORE. SOME TRUTH SOCIAL FROM THE PRESIDENT AND SOME REACTION ABOUT WHAT THIS MEANS, WHAT HE WANTS MONETARY POLICY TO DO AND WHETHER OR NOT MONETARY POLICY WILL ACTUALLY DO WHAT THE PRESIDENT WANTS.

CAN ALSO LULULEMON, WHAT IS GOING ON?

THEY HAD THE THING WITH THE SEE-THROUGH LEGGINGS. THEY REBOUNDED AND NOW THERE IS MORE DRAMA. NOT JUST THE LEGGINGS, BUT WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE BUSINESS. LEISURE HAD A HUGE BUMP AND IT KIND OF ALL STARTED TO LOOK THE SAME. CONSUMERS ARE OVER IT.

BUT FIRST, WE GOT TO GET TO THE MARKET. CHARLIE: THANK YOU VERY MUCH. INDEED, THAT LULULEMON QUOTE BEARS REPEATING, DOWN 17%. THE NEW CEO INHERITING A MASS. WE'VE GOT THE DOW, THE S&P, THE NASDAQ ALL VERY MUCH IN THE RED. THAT'S HOW WE WRAP UP TRADING AND THEN IT IS OFF TO THE BEACH. THE INDUSTRIALS DOWN FROM 5/10 OF 1%. SO BLOOMBERG MAG SEVEN INDEX HIT HARD TODAY. THE PHILADELPHIA STOCK UP TO .7%. AND THE TWO-YEAR AT 4.37%.

THE 30 YEAR, 5.23%. GOLD MEANWHILE DOWN. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE DOWN 5/10 OF 1%. BITCOIN DOWN BY 2.3%. GASOLINE PRICES ON THE RISE AS OF YESTERDAY. HIGHEST PRICE EVER FOR SEPTEMBER. SURGING JET FUEL PRICES DRIVING UP BORROWING COSTS FOR AIRLINES. OIL MAJORS TRADING LOW TODAY ALONG WITH THE PRICE OF CRUDE. CHEVRON DOWN 1.4%. CONOCOPHILLIPS DOWN BY 7/10 OF 1%. A CLOUD COMPUTING FIRM FOCUSED ON AI IS IN TALKS WITH POTENTIAL INVESTORS TO RAISE AS MUCH AS $3.5 BILLION IN FINANCING.

RECAP THE S&P, DOWN FIVE TENS OF 1%. THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH.

THANK YOU. LOOKS LIKE THE LABOR MARKET ADDS A LITTLE BIT MORE MOMENTUM THAN WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH HIS LAST REPORT. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE KIND OF HELD STEADY. PAYROLLS INCREASED 162,000. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HOLDING STEADY, LIKE WE SAID. LET'S GO STRAIGHT TO A CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST WITH BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS. THANKS FOR JOINING US. YOU'VE HAD THE MORNING TO KIND OF DIGEST ALL THE INFORMATION. WHAT STANDS OUT TO YOU THE MOST FROM THIS REPORT?

WHAT STANDS OUT TO ME IS THAT I THINK THINGS ARE NOT LOOKING AS STRONG AS WHEN YOU REALLY LOOK INTO THE DETAILS. I THINK THE DETAILS THAT PEOPLE UNDER APPRECIATED TODAY FROM THE JOBS REPORT IS ON A SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BASIS. JOBS THAT WERE ADDED WAS REALLY ONLY 154,000 COMPARED TO 200,000 LAST AUGUST. LAST AUGUST WITH 200,000 JOBS ADDED, THAT CORRESPONDS TO ONLY 22 K. IT COULD TRANSLATE TO AN EVEN HIGHER BASIS. SO I THINK THE THING TO LEARN HERE IS THAT MUCH OF THIS TRADE TODAY IS AN UNUSUALLY MILD SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT THAT BLS HAS APPLIED.

NOT BECAUSE THE UNDERLYING PACE OF JOB GROWTH HAS INCREASED.

THE REVISIONS WERE LAST MONTH. THEY SEEM KIND OF STARTLING BECAUSE THEY REVERSE BASICALLY 23,000 LOST TO A 23,000 GAIN. WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU AND DO WE TRUST THIS PROVISION IS ACCURATE?

I THINK THE -23 WAS THE SURPRISE. VERY FEW PEOPLE ALSO THOUGHT THAT IT WAS THAT LOW. I THINK LAST MONTH IT WAS TOO WEAK. THIS MONTH IT IS TOO STRONG. THE NUMBER TO HAVE RELATIVELY MORE FAITH IN HIS THE THREE MONTH MOVING AVERAGE, AND THAT IS LOOKING TO BE ROUGHLY 70,000 JOBS ADDED PER MONTH. WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT THAT WOULD BE ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A STABLE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, WHICH IS BASICALLY WHAT WE ARE SEEING A ROUGHLY STABLE.

SO ALL THAT SAID, THE FED LIKELY KIND OF RATE THIS AS BOOSTING THE ARGUMENT FOR INCREASING INTEREST RATES?

WE HAVE FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH WHO REPEATEDLY SAID HE DOES NOT BELIEVE THERE IS A TRADE-OFF BETWEEN THE LABOR MARKET AND INFLATION, SO HAD THE JOB MARKET BEEN WEAKER, HE PROBABLY WOULD SHRUG IT OFF AND THINK THAT IT IS INFLATION THAT MATTERS. BUT WITH THE STRENGTH TODAY, BASED ON HIS FRAMEWORK OF SEEING THE WORLD, IT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO HIGHER INFLATION.

WE ARE EXPECTING NEW DATA NEXT WEEK. WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FOR AND HOW DOES THIS ALL PLAY INTO IT?

SO EVERYTHING IS REALLY RIDING ON THE CPI. TOGETHER WE CAN HAVE A REALLY GOOD GAS ON CORE PCE. SO WE ARE EXPECTING THE CPI TO COME OUT AROUND 0.2 3-0.25. AND ON A YEAR-OVER-YEAR BASIS, THAT WOULD MEAN CORE CPI WOULD FALL TO 2.4%. THE LOWEST SINCE THE INFLATION FLAREUP IN 2021. HOWEVER, TRANSLATED INTO CORE PCE WHICH IS WHAT THE FED CARES ABOUT, IT'S LOOKING KIND OF BORDERLINE ON WHETHER IT MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR GOVERNOR CHRIS WALLER THAT INFLATION, THAT THIS INFLATION TREND IS CONTINUING.

SO IT LOOKS TO BE ABOVE 0.23%, IT IS GOING TO SHOW CORE PCE YEAR-OVER-YEAR DRIFTING UP TO 3.4%. AND IN THAT CASE, CLEARLY A HIKE. I THINK WE ARE BASICALLY AT 50% CHANCE RIGHT NOW AND I THINK THE MARKET ODDS RIGHT NOW IS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON IN TERMS OF BEING FAIRLY VALUED ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A RATE HIKE.

KEEPING EVERYBODY ON THE EDGE OF THEIR SEAT. ALWAYS NICE TO SEE YOU, THANK YOU SO MUCH. FOR MORE NOW, WE WANT TO GO TO CONSTANCE HUNTER, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT HEAD OF RESEARCH. LET ME JUST START OUT WITH THE BASICS. WHAT STOOD OUT TO YOU IN THIS REPORT, ANYTHING SURPRISING?

WHAT STOOD OUT TO ME IS NOT JUST THE REVISIONS WHICH SHE JUST SPOKE ABOUT THAT TAKES THE MONTHLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 70,000 FROM 20,000, BUT IT IS THE COMPOSITIONAL CHANGE. SO IF WE LOOK AT THE PAYROLLS DATA AND WE BREAK IT OUT BETWEEN CYCLICAL JOBS AND HERE, WE WOULD LOOK AT NONCYCLICAL JOBS AS THINGS LIKE HEALTH CARE AND GOVERNMENT WORKERS. THOSE WERE THE PREVIOUS TWO YEARS LEADING UP TO 2026. WE ACTUALLY SAW A DECLINE IN CYCLICAL JOBS, SO IT REALLY WAS THE NONCYCLICAL JOBS HOLDING UP THE ECONOMY, OR THE COURSE OF THIS YEAR WE'VE SEEN THAT TURNAROUND.

AND WE ARE SEEING GROWTH. TO ME, THAT'S JUST THAT THERE IS UNDERLYING STRENGTH IN THE ECONOMY DESPITE THE MANY HEADWINDS. SO IT'S NOT JUST THAT HEADLINE NUMBER, IT'S THE COMPOSITION UNDERNEATH THAT TELLS YOU WHAT IS HAPPENING ON MAIN STREET.

YOU SAY IN YOUR NOTES THAT THE SEPTEMBER INTEREST RATE DECISION IS GOING TO BE A COIN TOSS. WHAT WOULD BE THE DECIDING FACTOR?

I THINK THAT IS THE COMMON PHRASE. I DON'T LIKE THESE ODDS, I LIKE MORE CERTAINTY THAN THIS.

WELL, CERTAINLY A HOT READING ON INFLATION OR A VERY COOL READING ON INFLATION. AGAIN, IT'S ABOUT THAT COMPOSITION FACTOR. THERE IS NOISE RIGHT NOW IN THE CPI DATA BECAUSE OF THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. LAST FALL REALLY IMPACTING THE ABILITY TO COLLECT DATA . SO THAT IS CREATING SOME NOISE. AND OF COURSE WE TRANSLATE THAT OVER TO PCE. LOOKING AT SOME OF WHAT THEY ARE PLANNING TO DO, WE KNOW THAT THE REVISIONS THEY ARE LIKELY TO MAKE TAKES DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE TENTHS OF 1%.

SO IF YOU ARE RIGHT ON THAT KNIFE'S EDGE, IT IS 1% OR 2/10 OF 1% TO HOT. THEN THERE ARE SOME TECHNICAL FACTORS TO DISCOUNT THAT. SO IT REALLY COMES DOWN TO LOOKING UNDER THE HOOD AND LOOKING AT THOSE DETAILS.

ONE OF THE THINGS THAT YOU WROTE ABOUT WAS YOU FLAG OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF IMMIGRATION POLICY ON THE LABOR MARKET. YOU TALKED ABOUT TPS, ESPECIALLY FOR HAITIAN WORKERS. ALSO JUST THE IMPACT OF DECREASING OVERALL. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT TEMPORARY LABOR VISAS FROM AGRICULTURE, DEPORTATIONS. CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHY THIS MATTERS WHEN YOU ARE LOOKING AT THE LABOR MARKET OVERALL?

SURE, AND IT WAS LIKELY SOME OF THAT IN THE BEIGE BOOK. WE HAVE A LOWER TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLL ADDITION. SOME OF THAT IS BECAUSE THERE IS LESS DEMAND FOR EMPLOYERS, BUT SOME OF THAT IS BECAUSE THERE IS LESS SUPPL

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