万斯称美伊冲突非战争,油价创纪录推高通胀预期
Bloomberg News Now: VP Vance Says Iran Conflict Isn’t a ‘War’
地缘冲突定性变化叠加能源价格创纪录新高,直接重塑通胀预期与宏观定价逻辑,建议重点关注其对美联储政策路径及大宗商品板块的影响。
News when you want it with Bloomberg News now. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Karen, we begin with the latest from the Middle East. The war with Iran is now into its sixth months. Military strikes on both sides have intensified in recent days, but Vice President JD Vance is downplaying the scope of the conflict. I wouldn't call it a war. Right now, there is no active shooting. I recognize there is. There have been places where this has flared up, uh, major combat operations.
彭博新闻,想何时看就何时看。我是内森·黑格,我是凯伦·莫斯科。凯伦,我们从中东的最新动态开始。与伊朗的战争已进入第六个月。近日双方军事打击加剧,但副总统J.D.万斯淡化了冲突的范围。我不会称其为战争。目前,没有活跃的交火。我承认有。有些地方局势升级了,呃,发生了主要战斗行动。
Again, major combat operations lasted for about six weeks. Vice president JD Vance spoke at a white House press briefing. We get more from Bloomberg Middle East correspondent Abeer Abu Omar. The big question here really is how will the American public take these comments? Because you're left with 18 servicemembers that were killed from the United States side. Of course, hundreds others of others are injured. Then you've got 3500 casualties on the Iranian side.
再说一次,主要战斗行动持续了大约六周。副总统J.D.万斯在白宫记者会上发言。我们请彭博社中东记者阿比尔·阿布·奥马尔带来更多报道。这里真正的大问题是,美国公众将如何对待这些评论?因为你有18名美军士兵阵亡。当然,还有数百人受伤。然后你那边有3500名伊朗方面的伤亡人员。
But then the attempts or the remarks by JD Vance, of course, were seen as an effort to to to mow down the situation of this war in the Middle East, effectively, because President Trump has been calling it a war. Uh, and this, of course, comes ahead of those midterm elections. Meantime, Bloomberg's a big Omar says South Korea is reportedly preparing to send troops and a naval support ship to the Strait of Hormuz. That's according to local media reports that say President Trump is ramping up pressure on its Asian ally for not supporting the war.
但随后J.D.万斯的尝试或言论,当然,被视为一种努力,旨在平息中东这场战争的局势,实际上,因为特朗普总统一直称之为战争。呃,这当然发生在中期选举之前。与此同时,彭博社的阿布·奥马尔表示,据报韩国正准备向霍尔木兹海峡派遣部队和海军支援舰。这是根据当地媒体报道,称特朗普总统正在对其亚洲盟友施加压力,因其未支持这场战争。
Well, Nathan, the economic pressure is ramping up on the white House in the form of climbing gas prices. U.S. retail diesel rose to a record, threatening to further spike energy driven inflation as wars in Iran and Russia roiled the market. The fuel climbed to a nationwide average of $5.85 a gallon above the former peak that was set in June 2022. And also on the economic front, Karen stocks and treasuries are steady ahead of the August jobs report.
嗯,内森,经济压力正以汽油价格上涨的形式在白宫外加剧。美国零售柴油价格升至纪录高位,威胁着进一步推高能源驱动的通胀,因为伊朗和俄罗斯的战争扰乱了市场。燃料价格攀升至全国平均每加仑5.85美元,高于2022年6月创下的前高。在经济方面,凯伦,股市和国债在8月就业报告发布前保持稳定。
That could signal the path for interest rates, with odds of a September rate hike roughly even ahead of the numbers. Bloomberg's Michael McKean has a preview. Absent any major surprise, the August employment report will be a predicate for next week's inflation numbers. Fed officials are fairly confident the labor market is, at worst, steady. jobless claims are little changed in surveys of manufacturing and service industries.
这可能预示着利率的路径,在数据公布前,9月加息的概率大致持平。彭博社的迈克尔·麦肯进行了预览。如果没有重大意外,8月就业报告将成为下周通胀数据的先决条件。美联储官员相当有信心劳动力市场最坏情况下也是稳定的。失业救济金申请人数在制造业和服务业调查中变化不大。
Report companies are still hiring while job growth is forecast to remain slow. The drop in the labor force, driven by immigration policy, has lowered the number of jobs that must be created to hold unemployment steady, and unemployment is forecast to have been unchanged last month. Average hourly earnings gains have slowed, and central bankers say that suggests there's no wage pressures on inflation. Michael McKee Bloomberg Radio.
招聘企业仍在招人,而就业增长预计仍将缓慢。受移民政策推动的劳动力下降降低了维持失业率稳定所需创造的就业岗位数量,预计上月失业率保持不变。平均小时工资增速放缓,央行官员表示这表明通胀方面不存在工资压力。迈克尔·麦基(Michael McKee),彭博电台。
All right, Mike, thanks. We get those August jobs numbers this morning and we will bring you those numbers live with the context behind the data on Bloomberg Surveillance commercial free. Starting at 8:30 a.m., Wall Street time on Bloomberg Radio and the Bloomberg podcast page on YouTube. Well, overseas. Nathan, the yen advanced to a one month high as a rush to unwind the yen fund and carry trade signals. Ramped up bets on further Bank of Japan rate hikes.
好的,迈克,谢谢。我们今天早上将公布8月就业数据,并将在无广告的《彭博监控》(Bloomberg Surveillance)节目中结合数据背景为您实时播报这些数据。美东时间上午8:30起,在彭博电台和YouTube上的彭博播客页面播出。海外方面,内森,日元升至一个月高点,因为平仓日元基金和套息交易的浪潮加剧了对日本银行进一步加息的押注。
The move follows hawkish comments from BOJ governor Kazuo. Later, they could raise rates as three consecutive meetings through December in an extreme scenario where yen weakness persists, according to Nomura Securities. Let's get the latest on US-China relations now, Karen. U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer is striking an optimistic tone ahead of President Trump's meeting with China's XI Jinping later this month.
此举紧随日本银行行长 Kazuo 的鹰派言论之后。野村证券表示,在日元疲软持续存在的极端情景下,他们可能在12月前的连续三次会议上加息。让我们现在来看看中美关系的最新动态,凯伦。美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔(Jamison Greer)在本月晚些时候特朗普总统与中国国家主席习近平会晤前持乐观态度。
On Fox News, Greer pointed to a shrinking trade deficit and suggested some Chinese goods could be excluded from tariffs. We're not looking for a giant comprehensive trade agreement with China. We're looking to manage this relationship. Part of this is continuing to get the deficit down. The deficit hasn't been this low with China for many years. Uh, they're no, they're they're no longer our largest deficit. And U.S. trade rep Jamison Greer also says he expects progress on agricultural barriers during the president's meeting with XI, while playing down prospects for a broad new trade agreement.
福克斯新闻上,格里尔指出贸易逆差正在缩小,并暗示部分中国商品可能被排除在关税之外。我们并不寻求与中国达成一项巨大的全面贸易协议。我们要做的是管理这段关系。这部分工作包括继续缩小逆差。多年来,中国从未出现过如此低的逆差。不,他们不再是我们的最大逆差国。美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔还表示,他预计在与习近平的会晤中,农业壁垒问题将取得进展,同时淡化了达成广泛新贸易协议的前景。
Nathan, we turn to eye now, and sources told Bloomberg that entropic is set to finalize expanding its revolving credit facility to $15 billion ahead of the firm's public filing for its highly anticipated IPO. Morgan Stanley is leading the process, with Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Citi also having prominent roles in the offering, and the credit facility would exceed the company's roughly $10 billion target and the CEO of anthropic.
内森,我们将目光转向眼下的情况,据消息人士告诉彭博社,熵力(Entropic)准备将其循环信贷额度扩大至150亿美元,这发生在该公司备受期待的IPO公开文件提交之前。摩根士丹利主导了这一进程,高盛、摩根大通和花旗也在该发行中扮演重要角色,且该信贷额度将超过公司约100亿美元的目标以及Anthropic的首席执行官。
Biggest rival OpenAI. Sam Altman says the industry has done a poor job communicating the benefits of artificial intelligence. Altman tells Bloomberg companies need to show how I can give people more power and enable greater creativity. I think the industry has done a terrible job of this. On the whole, I think we have done a bad job ourselves. Uh, you know, maybe better than some others. Worse than some others. It is difficult, of course, to explain, but this is, uh, the world should, in my opinion, should want us to worry a lot about this technology.
最大的竞争对手是 OpenAI。Sam Altman 表示,该行业在传达人工智能的好处方面做得很差。Altman 告诉彭博社,公司需要展示 AI 如何赋予人们更多力量并激发更大的创造力。我认为这个行业在这方面做得很糟糕。总的来说,我认为我们自己做得也不好。嗯,你知道的,可能比一些人好一些,但比另一些人差一些。当然,解释起来很难,但在我看来,世界应该希望我们非常担心这项技术。
The world should want us to think about all the ways that could go wrong, to talk about what we see coming, but not to sort of, like, stir up doom. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's comments come as research from Bloomberg Economics finds the benefits may already be showing up. It estimates U.S. labor productivity grew 3.1% in the year through the second quarter, compared with the official 2.5% that would be comparable to the late 90s tech boom.
世界应该希望我们思考所有可能出错的方式,讨论我们看到的问题,但不要像煽动末日恐慌那样。OpenAI 首席执行官 Sam Altman 的评论出现在彭博经济学的一项研究之后,该研究发现好处可能已经显现。它估计美国劳动生产率在截至第二季度的这一年增长了 3.1%,而官方数据为 2.5%,这与 90 年代末的科技繁荣时期相当。
And that's news when you wanted with Bloomberg News now. I'm Karen Moscow. I'm Nathan Hager and this is Bloomberg.
这是您现在与彭博新闻一起看到的新闻。我是 Karen Moscow。我是 Nathan Hager,这是彭博社。
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