特朗普称伊朗打击将短暂，油价回落至94美元

Good morning. How are you doing? It's Thursday the third. This is what is going on right now. The end was up yesterday and it's up again today. Traders look like they're starting to price in a big a hike from the BOJ and are clearly worried about intervention risk although a little low. Trump says the latest strikes on Iran will be short lived. And Broadcom predicts OpenAI and anthropic will drive a massive surge in chip sales.

Asia Tech was enjoying that news in the last hour. Tom, that's changed a bit. It's been a choppy session over in Asia. European futures pointing to very modest gains of a 10th of a percent. Taking into account all those dynamics after three straight days of losses for European stocks. A slightly brighter picture. We'll see if that holds the Japanese yen. This guy was saying in focus. 157 strength coming through again for this currency up 9/10 of a percent so far in the session.

Brent a little softer, down 1.4% on those comments from Trump. It seems at $94 a barrel. So weaker oil prices also one of the catalysts with that modest upside for European futures. The countdown to that trade starts right now. Okay. 701 in London. What are we talking about? FIC once again seems to be dominating the agenda. Fixed income and foreign exchange. Both markets definitely on the move. The yen though. One of the big stories of the morning yesterday.

Some decent moves yet positive. Markets trying to figure out what's happening and why we get the similar sort of moves this morning. These aren't huge moves. These aren't the kind of moves we saw when Scott Benson got involved, but they're decent moves and worth paying attention to. The BJ meets on the 18th, that's what we're going to get the next decision on interest rates. Are we going to get a bigger than anticipated rate hike and are we going to get intervention?

Those are the key questions. The markets are grappling. So that was a speculation that maybe there's going to be a bigger than expected hike from the B.J. given Given the rate differential and increased expectations, the fed itself will be hiking on that meeting 50 to the six things. And then, of course, the speculation that there have been checks write checks from the Ministry of Finance over in Japan with some of those banks that hasn't been confirmed yet.

But again, to your point, putting intervention back on the table, we know they spent tens of billions of dollars doing that already. And we of course know about the the partnership with the US Treasury secretary on that front. So the Japanese currency gaining on the back of that bonds as well over in Japan. So JGB is a bit with yields down across the curve at least at least for now. So the bond market selloff that we've seen pronounced in the last few days seems to be, at least for now, stabilizing to some extent.

Um, interesting to hear from from the fed, uh, fed, New York Fed, uh, governor and chair, uh, Williams on his expectations that actually inflation is trending lower and is a little bit more confident about that. Um, but this is this is this is the picture right now. It does feel fragile, though, at this point in terms of what we're seeing in the bond market. So I spent the last week kind of on holiday, but trying to figure out what's happening with the bond market.

And there seems to be multiple reasons why yields are higher. Clearly, government deficits are a factor. Clearly what's happening with the fed and what we'll set at Jackson Hole is a factor. You've also got the I build out story, which is a factor. There seems to be multiple kind of things coming together to boost, particularly the longer dated story. Inflation is in the mix as well. And that's interesting to kind of talk about too, how the Japanese control their situation is going to be interesting.

You've got Takeuchi talking about spending a lot of money, which puts the deficit story back on the table. You've got to believe that maybe hiking rates more aggressively. How do those two factors cancel each other? It's a really interesting mix at the moment, and I have to say, I got to the end of the week and still couldn't figure out what exactly was the bottom line in terms of the dominant driver for the bond markets at the moment?

It could be oil, it could be AI, it could be deficits. It could be a multitude of factors coming together. But oil looks like it's stabilizing this morning. It does. So that downward pressure on oil at least for now. President Trump then saying that the latest attacks on Iran will be short lived. That was a comment paraphrasing what the president had to say, but essentially saying that he doesn't think it's going to take too long.

This is the same president, of course, who said that the Iran conflict would would take about 4 to 6 weeks and went out in the well beyond six months. So how short link with this, will these downside pressure and oil be given that? But nothing fundamentally has changed on the ground. We're literally just moving on the back of one comment from a president who has flipped and U-turned on this conflict, really from day one.

So the market reaction to that in some levels is is surprising. But that is what we're seeing in the here and now. Oil prices. Oil prices slightly lower. The story around gas, of course, is completely different. And Goldman Sachs has been crunching the numbers on this. And it gets and it gets potentially very bad for Europe going into the winter. We are going to have to massively accelerate the stock building that has been normally that normally happens over the summer into the winter.

Um, if we're not going to face definitely higher prices, it is unlikely that Europe is going to face shortages this winter. We have the capability of to to pay for the gas, but we're going to have to pay up for it. And that is the challenge that we now face. Multiplexing is going to be joining us a little bit later on in the program. Former boss of Commerzbank now advising the German chancellor. High energy prices look like they are going to be a factor going into this winter for Germany.

And what impact is that storage on Germany's at 53%? The lowest it's been across the union has been 75% a target for this time of year. You're about 65% across the European Union. It's Germany that stands out. Italy and France are actually at around 80, 83% they're in a better they're in better shape than Germany. So what this means basically is you're going to have to buy gas on the open market at spot, which, you know, traditionally you haven't done.

Germany has, certainly hasn't done. And you're going to be competing with Asia. And that means higher prices. And it's going to be entering sea once again, with government deficits as high as they are at the moment, how governments are going to support the public and industry. Let's talk a little bit about roll call broke overnight. So initially the market reaction was fairly negative to its numbers. Then we got the call and things seemed to turn a little bit more positive.

They talked about the idea that Google, which is their current biggest customer, is going to be overtaken over the next couple of years and they are projecting forward into 28. They're going to be they're going to be it's going to be overtaken by anthropic and OpenAI anthropic leaving leading on that one. So here we have two companies that are basically massively cashflow negative. They've got to be leading Broadcom big big surge in chip sales.

Yes. Questions. Yes. I mean look Google has also dipped into the right of course recently to to fund that build out. And yet and yet the Google balance sheet is a very different thing to the anthropic and OpenAI balance sheet to to your point. So so so how much how much conviction, how much, how much should you be betting on Broadcom revenues coming through in the next two years on two companies that have yet to be really tested.

The test comes of course with the anthropic IPO. So that will read tha