美国副总统万斯称美伊冲突非战争,霍尔木兹海峡通行量恢复至日均600-800万桶
US-Iran Conflict Isn’t a ‘War,’ Vance Says
地缘冲突动态直接影响能源供应链与大宗商品定价,关注油价波动及航运成本变化。
I wouldn't call it a war. Right now, there is no active shooting. I recognize there is. There have been places where this is flared up. Uh, major combat operations again. Major combat operations lasted for about six weeks. Okay, the president himself, of course, does call into what U.S. Vice President JD Vance speaking at the white House press briefing yesterday. His comments coming just days after the US launched new strikes on Iran in response to attacks on oil tankers trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
我不会称之为战争。目前,没有活跃的交火。我承认有冲突发生。有些地方局势曾一度升级。嗯,主要作战行动再次展开。主要作战行动持续了大约六周。好的,总统本人当然也对此发表了看法。美国副总统 JD·万斯昨天在白宫记者招待会上发言。他的评论是在美国对伊朗发动新一轮打击后的几天内作出的,作为对试图通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮遇袭的回应。
Oil inching a little lower this morning but heading for its biggest weekly gain since July. Let's bring in Bloomberg's about Abu Omar in Dubai. I mean, what is the latest right now out of the strait. Yeah. Good morning Tom. More of the same essentially of what we've been seeing over the past few days or so. It's worthy to say, however, that the military escalations have eased here in the region. We're still seeing, of course, a trickle of movement through the Strait of Hormuz.
今早油价小幅下跌,但正朝着自七月以来最大的周涨幅迈进。让我们连线彭博社驻迪拜的阿布·奥马尔。我的意思是,关于霍尔木兹海峡的最新情况如何?是的。早上好,汤姆。基本上与过去几天的情况相同。然而值得一提的是,该地区的军事紧张局势已有所缓和。我们当然仍看到有少量船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。
Again, worthy of noting nowhere near where we were prewar. Of course, Bloomberg's own reporting suggests that we're seeing about 6 to 8 million barrels a day going through the Strait of Hormuz. The US Secretary of Energy, Chris, right, had suggested that earlier in the week we saw about 18 million barrels make their way through the Strait of Hormuz. But when it comes to the wider geopolitical scene, Tom, it's again these tit for tat strikes that have started and now we're seeing them ease again.
同样值得注意的是,目前的通行量远不及战前水平。当然,彭博社自身的报道显示,目前通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油约为每天600万至800万桶。美国能源部长克里斯(Chris)此前曾表示,本周早些时候我们看到约有1800万桶石油通过霍尔木兹海峡。但在更广泛的地缘政治舞台上,汤姆,又是这些你打我一下、我还你一记的打击行动引发了局势,而现在我们看到它们又有所缓和。
JD Vance, of course, saying that he wouldn't call this a war. Even so, this conflict that's been going on for more than six months at this point, you wouldn't classify as a war. And our own reporting suggests that this might not fly well with Americans or the domestic situation in the U.S., especially with those looming midterm elections with 18 servicemembers killed in the United States, hundreds other injured, of course, and 3500 people in Iran.
JD·万斯当然表示他不会将此称为战争。尽管如此,这场至今已持续超过六个月的冲突,你也不会将其归类为战争。而我们自己的报道表明,这可能在美国民众或美国国内局势中难以被接受,尤其是随着中期选举临近,已有18名美军士兵在美国阵亡,数百人受伤,当然还有伊朗方面有3500人伤亡。
So the question here really is what is the endgame and who is set to win? Bloomberg Economics suggests no one is set to win at this point. And just to be sure, the the toll on Iran is quite heavy. The economic toll is quite heavy, but it's just not enough yet for Iran to capitulate, especially with the realization that the United States is facing or President Trump is facing those midterm elections in November. So again, more of the same, you're seeing Brent crude prices headed towards a weekly gain, albeit a little bit lower today because of those easing situations in the Strait of Hormuz.
因此,这里的问题实际上是最终结局是什么,谁会胜出?彭博经济(Bloomberg Economics)认为目前没有人会胜出。为确保准确,伊朗所承受的代价相当沉重。经济代价相当沉重,但这还不足以让伊朗投降,尤其是考虑到美国正面临或特朗普总统正面临11月的中期选举。因此,情况大致如故,布伦特原油价格正朝着周线上涨的方向发展,尽管今天因霍尔木兹海峡局势缓和而略有回落。
We spoke to Mary's CEO earlier, of course, the Maritime Security Organization that takes a look at what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz. And even he was telling us that the situation ahead of that Labor Day weekend in the United States is a little bit better than one would have expected at the beginning of the week. So of course, we just now keep an eye on energy levels, energy prices, especially with diesel, of course.
我们早些时候采访了海事安全组织(Maritime Security Organization)的CEO玛丽(Mary),该组织负责审视霍尔木兹海峡发生的情况。他甚至告诉我们,在美国劳动节周末前夕,局势比一周初预期的要好一些。因此,我们当然继续密切关注能源水平和能源价格,特别是柴油价格。
U.S. diesel still at a four year high in the in the U.S..
美国的柴油价格仍处于四年来的高位。
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