美联储理事沃勒表态支持维持利率不变，日元受提振反弹

[music] Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. Welcome to the Daybreak [music] Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krishnner. US markets responded to some dovish Fed speak on Thursday. We had Governor Chris Waller saying he'd be willing to support holding rates steady if price pressures continue to show signs of easing. And Waller went on to say his next decision on rates will be heavily influenced by the August inflation data which is due in the coming week.

Now his remarks helped to weaken the dollar. In New York trading the Bloomberg dollar spot index was down more than a half of 1%. On the flip side, the yen rallied strengthening against the green back by 1.9%. And we got reaction to the price action in the yen from Yugjiro Gooto. He is head of Japan FX strategy at Namura. Goto spoke with Bloomberg Cherion and Cherry began the conversation by asking about the possibility for outsized or even faster rate hikes from the BOJ perhaps as soon as this month.

I think for now uh into the September 25 basis hike looks quite reasonable. that's uh crazy a message from the weather uh earlier this week and uh it's uh possible that uh we can have a backto back uh rate hike uh in October and December if a momentum and weakness weakness continues toward again to 160 or even above 160 but I think a 50 basis hike immediately in September looks a little bit too much for the BOJ at the moment

when it comes to what the BOJ does Next, how strong will the signaling effect be given that we also saw these incredible moves coming from the US with Secretary Bessen's pressure as well?

Yes. So I think it's really unusual for uh you know US authority to put uh very strong pressure on the central bank bank of Japan to consider a rate hike and also uh Scott Bent suggested that Japan needs to stop recreationally policy which may include the fiscal side of the policy stance as well. So I think this pressure looks quite strong and also end of July US supported Japan's intervention uh by a coordinated intervention.

So I think uh Japanese authority BOJ government need to listen to what uh Scott Bessent wants to achieve. So in that sense uh I think at least uh once every 3 months uh once every quarter pace of the rate hike is likely or necessary for the BJ from here. But the uh chance is uh for uh again a backto-back uh rate hike in uh October that cannot be ruled out now.

What is Nora's call for the year end uh target for the yen and and what will it hinge on? Is it more BOJ? Is it more just a lot of speculative moves as well? I think uh our target is just 154 at the moment and uh this looks still reasonable but obviously for Dian not just BOJ but uh what Fed is going to do and oil price movements are important driver and in that sense uh yesterday's uh you know uh governor's comment and also new fet Williams comments uh on Tuesday suggest uh fed may not be uh rushing for a rate hike in the September and market price is around 50% chance for the September hike.

But if fed is not going to hike in September uh another uh you know uh there are weakness momentum is likely to happen after the uh September she so uh we may breach 155 bit earlier than many expected if uh Fed does not hike in September while BOJ communicated hawkishly around the around the same timing. Not to mention that the US has its own fiscal concerns, right? Where we see the ongoing debasement call for the US dollar when it comes to what potentially say Japan's pension service does next because we saw their sort of unusual August management meeting.

Could we see more investors allocating out of the US and that would be a big issue for Japan if they were to reallocate into Japanese assets? Right. I have to say uh pension fund story uh that is still uh quite uncertain whether GPI is really uh you know uh going to purchase uh domestic bonds aggressively uh in the near future but uh uh I think uh market is now uh uh viewing the risk of uh BOJ falling behind the curve is now much smaller that's quite important for uh many uh domestic bond uh investors uh because uh you know past six to uh 12 months uh domestic bond investors were concerned over behind the curb and BOJ's rate hike may sustain not just into 2027 but 2028 due to very slow pace of the rate hike but now BJ is going to hike much more quickly and many can I many investors can uh expect much earlier timing of the uh uh end of the hike with BJ that's really important uh condition for rifle pension funds other bond investors to consider uh aggressive bond purchases.

So I think uh there is a bigger chance for some kind of repatriation by Japanese investors uh to support long end of the JDBs going forward. Was that sort of reflected on what we saw in the JGB auctions this week as well?

I think so. And uh yesterday's GDP movement was quite uh interesting uh to see a much uh bigger decline in uh 30 or 10 years GB is more than a short end of the curve and also I think fiscal stimulus uh fiscal policy is uh in focus for sure but uh recent local media report suggest Takai government may not have the second supplementary budget for this fiscal year even uh though we had the earthquake in Kumamoto and so on.

So that suggest Kakai's stance to uh not to rely on supplementaryary budget is more credible and if that's the case in the new fiscal year uh current uh budget request which was a bit bigger than this and the previous fiscal year but 143 trillion yen that may not be too uh aggressive fiscal easing if Japan is departing from the uh supplementaryary budget uh stance. So I think fiscal persistence maybe also uh somewhat more supportive for JB market and also Japanese yam and

what's the next catalyst for the yen because it was kind of difficult to understand why we saw this huge strengthening all of a sudden towards the 155 level recently right

I think a market views that the BOJ is going to hike in September that's kind of not done deal now but uh we want to hear uh any kind of communication from government side regarding the monetary policy especially uh any comment from Prime Minister Takai on BOJ or monetary policy can be quite important to drive our catalyst for next Movement. If she sounded still negative for rate hike BJ market will be disappointed and M may be sold again.

But if she remains quiet on BJ policy or suggest or emphasize independence on BOG and so on, I think market will be excited about a clear turning point of the monetary policy uh of the Japan which will be uh very supportive for Japanese yen to about even below 150 against US dollar. That is Yugjiro Gooto, head of Japan FX strategy at Namura, speaking with Bloomberg Sherang, bringing [music] you their conversation here on the Daybreak Asia podcast.

Welcome back to the [music] Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krishnner and as I mentioned earlier, Fed Governor Chris Waller was saying on Thursday he'd be willing to support holding rates steady if price pressures continue to show signs of easing. That's where we start the conversation with Sesh Tenia, CIO of Asia Equity Strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management. He spoke with Bloomberg's Heidi Strad Watts and Heidi asked about the risk to equity investors from the current state of Fed policy.

I think they are very meaningful because um they might have uh changed the or tilted the balance of the next Fed policy decision. Um at this point of time, I think we are watching two key data points. one is the non-farm payroll numbers coming on Friday and the next inflation data. They are likely to decide whether Fed moves in the next meeting or not. At this point of time, I would say it's more of a coin toss. Um latest data points have been in the right direction whether it's the labor market data or the inflation data.

But the Fed has a 2% inflation target which is far away. So let's see what happens next week. But as if the data supports I think most likely we are not going to see uh a rate hike coming in the September meeting

becau

原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。