万斯称伊朗局势非战争，油价创纪录高位
JD Vance on Iran: ‘I Wouldn’t Call It a War'
直接关联原油供应风险与通胀预期，明确给出油价新高结论，需关注能源板块及宏观流动性变化。
THIS IS "PLANS OF POWER" LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C.
这里是来自华盛顿特区的《权力计划》直播节目。
OUR ATTITUDE IS WE’RE NOT GOING TO SET AN ARTIFICIAL TIMELINE. IT WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE FOR US TO WRITE OUT A STRATEGY AND TIMELINE FOR AN IRANIAN NATION THAT CAN IN THE -- CANNOT HONOR ITS COMMITMENTS AND CANNOT STOP SHOOTING AT COMMERCIAL SHIPS. JOE: TONIGHT, NO END IN SIGHT. VICE PRESIDENT J.D. VANCE SAYING TALKS ARE ON HOLD UNTIL ATTACKS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ CEASE. AMERICANS ARE FEELING THE FALLOUT AT HOME.
我们的态度是，我们不会设定一个人为的时间表。对于一个无法履行承诺、也无法停止向商船开火的伊朗而言，为其制定战略和时间表是不负责任的。乔：今晚，看不到尽头。副总统J.D.万斯表示，在霍尔木兹海峡的袭击停止之前，谈判将暂停。美国人正在国内感受到冲击。
A.A.A. SAYS PRICES AT THE PUMP HEADING FOR THE MOST EXPENSIVE LABOR DAY EVER. HOUSE REPUBLICANS WIPE TWO WEEKS OFF THE SEPTEMBER SCHEDULE, LEAVING LAWMAKERS JUST DAYS IN WASHINGTON BEFORE THEY HEAD BACK TO CAMPAIGN. REPRESENTATIVE JIM MCGOVERN IS WITH US SHORTLY IN STUDIO. AND SANCTIONS SQUEEZE. A SWEEPING SANCTIONS PACKAGE TARGETING RUSSIA. WE’LL SPEAK WITH UKRAINE’S COMMISSIONER FOR SANCTIONS POLICY, THE FORBE GET IT ACROSS THE FINISH LINE.
AAA表示，加油站的价格正朝着史上最贵的劳动节迈进。众议院共和党人删去了九月日程中的两周时间，使得立法者在返回竞选前仅在华盛顿停留几天。众议员吉姆·麦戈文稍后将进入演播室与我们交谈。以及制裁压力。一项针对俄罗斯的广泛制裁方案。我们将与乌克兰制裁政策专员对话，将其推过终点线。
FROM BLOOMBERG WASHINGTON, D.C., STUDIOS, WELCOME TO BALANCE OF POWER. I’M JOE MATHIEU, ALONGSIDE KAILEY LEINZ. KAILEY: VICE PRESIDENT J.D. VANCE HELD A PRESS CONFERENCE, FEELING THE ROLE OF PRESS SECRETARY WHICH REMAINS VACANT. HE DISCUSSES THE PRESSURE OF BRINGING TOWN GAS PRICES AND WEIGHING IN ON THE NUMBER OF REPUBLICANS OPTING NOT TO ATTEND NEXT WEEK’S MID TERM CONVICTION. KATE, LET’S START WITH IRAN, THE VICE PRESIDENT SAID HE WOULDN’T CALL IT A WAR.
欢迎来到彭博社华盛顿特区演播室的《权力平衡》节目。我是乔·马修，与凯利·莱因茨一起主持。凯利：副总统J.D.万斯举行了一场新闻发布会，扮演了仍空缺的新闻秘书的角色。他讨论了压低天然气价格的压力，并就有多少共和党人选择不参加下周的中期选举定罪发表评论。凯特，让我们从伊朗开始，副总统说他不会称之为战争。
KATE: WE HEARD THE VICE PRESIDENT DOWN PLAY WHEN HE SPOKE TO REPORTERS IN THE BRIEFING ROOM. HE SAID HE WOULDN’T CALL IT A WAR, THERE ISN’T ACTIVE SHOOTING, DESPITE ATTACKS JUST DAYS AGO.
凯特：我们在简报室听到副总统对记者讲话时淡化了局势。他说他不会称之为战争，尽管几天前发生了袭击，但目前没有活跃的交火。
I WOULDN’T CALL IT A WARM THERE’S NO ACTIVE SHOOTING. I RECOGNIZE THERE’S BEEN PLACES WHERE IT’S FLARED UP. MAJOR COMBAT OPERATION, AGAIN, MAJOR COMBAT OPERATIONS LASTED FOR ABOUT SIX WEEKS. KATE: HE ALSO SAID HE DIDN’T KNOW WHEN THE WAR WOULD END HE FEEL SAID IT WOULD LARGELY DEPEND ON IRAN, AND WHETHER THEY STOPPED SHOOTING AT COMMERCIAL SHIPS TRANSITING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. HE WAS ALSO ASKED ABOUT WHEN GAS WOULD GO BECOME TO $3 A GALLON.
我不会称之为战争，目前没有活跃的交火。我承认有些地方曾爆发冲突。大规模战斗行动，再说一次，大规模战斗行动持续了大约六周。凯特：他还表示，他不知道战争何时会结束，他说这在很大程度上取决于伊朗是否停止向通过霍尔木兹海峡的商船开火。当被问及汽油何时会变成每加仑3美元时，他也做出了回应。
OF COURSE WE TALKED A LOT ON THE SHOW ABOUT HOW HIGH GAS PRICES ARE, AND HOW IT’S GOING TOGETHER THE MID TERM LEKS. IT’S MORE THAN $4 A GLOBAL AT THE MOMENT, SOMETHING THE WHITE HOUSE IS WATCHING CLOSELY. WE’RE MORE THAN SIX MONTH INTO THE WAR WITH IRAN AND THE -- THE VICE PRESIDENT’S COMMENTS TODAY MADE IT CLEAR JUST HOW MUCH THE WHITE HOUSE WOULD RATHER BE TALKING ABOUT ANYTHING ELSE AND IS REALLY LOOKING FOR AN OFFRAMP HERE.
当然，我们在节目中谈了很多关于汽油价格有多高，以及它将如何影响中期选举的问题。目前全球已超过每加仑4美元，这是白宫密切关注的事情。我们与伊朗的战争已经进行了六个月以上，副总统今天的言论清楚地表明，白宫宁愿谈论任何其他事情，并真的在这里寻找一个脱身方案。
JOE: I’VE GOT TO ASK YOU ABOUT NEWS THAT BROKE IN THE LAST HOUR. THE D.O.J. ASKING THE SUPREME COURT TO ALLOW POSTAL SERVICE TO ENFORCE NEW RULES FOR MAIL-IN BALLOTS. THIS BRINGS US TO A BOSTON FEDERAL JUDGE’S ORDER BLOCKING THE POSTAL SERVICE FROM MANDATING THESE CHANGES. ISN’T IT GETTING TO BE A LITTLE LATE FOR THIS? KATE: WITH THE MID TERM LEKS RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER IT IS GOING TO BE BREASTING TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.
乔：我必须问一下刚刚发生的一则新闻。美国司法部请求最高法院允许邮政局执行关于邮寄选票的新规定。这让我们想到波士顿一位联邦法官的裁决，该裁决阻止了邮政局强制实施这些变更。现在才提出这个要求，是不是有点太晚了？凯特：随着中期选举即将到来，我们将拭目以待事态将如何发展。
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS TRYING TO MAKE IT HARDER FOR AMERICANS TO VOTE BY MAIL. THEY’VE BEEN TRYING TO RESTRICT MAIL-IN VOTING. THE PRESIDENT HAS LONG CLAIMED, MADE CLAIMS WITHOUT EVIDENCE, THAT THERE’S WIDESPREAD FRAUD WHEN IT COMES TO MAIL-IN BALLOTS. THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF HAS VOTED BY MAIL INCLUDING A FEW WEEKS AGO IN THE FLORIDA PRIMARY. WE’VE HEARD A LOT OF THIS RHETT FLICK PRESIDENT, HE SIGNED THIS EXECUTIVE ORDER NOW THE ADMINISTRATION IS ASKING THE SUPREME COURT TO INTERVENE.
特朗普政府正试图让美国人通过邮寄方式投票变得更加困难。他们一直在试图限制邮寄投票。总统长期以来在没有证据的情况下声称，邮寄选票存在广泛的欺诈行为。总统本人也通过邮寄方式投票，包括几周前在佛罗里达州初选时。我们听到了很多这样的说法，瑞特·弗利克总统，他签署了这项行政命令，现在政府正在请求最高法院介入。
THEY’RE ASKING THE SUPREME COURT FOR AN EMERGENCY APPEAL, ASKING THE SUPREME COURT TO LET IT MOVE AHEAD WITH THESE RESTRICTIONS. THIS IS, OF COURSE, AFTER THE BOSTON JUDGE ISSUED THAT BLOCK FOR TWO WEEKS. JOE: KATE, THANK YOU FOR THE UPDATE. BLOOMBERG’S KATE SULLIVAN WITH US LIVE THE NORTHRUP OF THE WHITE HOUSE. WE’RE NOW JOINED BY DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSMAN JIM MCGOVERN OF MASSACHUSETTS, THE TOP DEMOCRAT ON THE HOUSE PRICE.
他们正在向最高法院申请紧急上诉，请求最高法院允许他们继续推进这些限制措施。当然，这是在波士顿法官发布为期两周的禁令之后。乔：凯特，感谢你的更新。彭博社的凯特·沙利文正在白宫北厅现场报道。我们现在连线的是来自马萨诸塞州的民主党众议员吉姆·麦戈文，他是众议院筹款委员会的高级民主党成员。
GREAT TO HAVE YOU IN STUDIO. IT’S FLY-OUT DAY FOR A LOT OF FOLKS BUT YOU’RE STILL WITH US IN THE NATION’S CAPITAL. I HAVE TO START WITH THE BREAKING STORY. THERE ARE NUANCES TO THIS CASE AND IT’S JUST BREAKING NOW. BUT SHOULD PEOPLE WHO ARE GOING TO VOTE IN BOOSTER IN NOVEMBER FEEL LIKE THEY CAN COULDN’T ON THE POST OFFICE OR NOT? MR. MCGOVERN: I HOPE. SO WE HAVE A PRESIDENT WHO IS AFRAID OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. HE’S AFRAID TO -- WHAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE GOING TO DECIDE ON ELECTION DAY.
很高兴你在演播室。对很多人来说今天是休会日，但你仍然在我们国家的首都与我们在一起。我必须从这则突发新闻开始。这个案件有一些细微差别，而且目前刚刚爆出。但是那些打算在十一月投票的人，是否应该觉得他们可以信任邮局，或者不信任呢？麦戈文先生：我希望如此。所以我们有一位害怕美国人民的总统。他害怕——害怕美国人民在选举日做出的决定。
WHICH I THINK HE’S BEGINNING TO UNDERSTAND, PEOPLE ARE REJECTING HIS POLICIES AND THEY WANT SOMETHING BETTER AND DIFFERENT. JOE: HE SEEMS TO ASSOCIATE MAIL-IN BALLOTS WITH FRAUD. MR. MCGOVERN: HE HIMSELF VOTES BY MAIL. IT’S OK FOR HIM, OK FOR THE RICH AND FAMOUS WHO SURROUND HIM, BUT FOR THE REGULAR PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN WORCESTER? THEY CAN’T VOTE BY MAIL? SEENOR CITIZENS VOTE BY MAIL. PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES VOTE BY MAIL.
我认为他开始意识到这一点，人们正在拒绝他的政策，他们想要更好、不同的东西。乔：他似乎将邮寄选票与欺诈联系在一起。麦戈文先生：他自己就通过邮寄方式投票。对他来说没问题，对他周围的那些富人和名人来说也没问题，但对于住在伍斯特市的普通民众呢？他们不能通过邮寄方式投票吗？老年人通过邮寄方式投票。残疾人通过邮寄方式投票。
PEOPLE STATIONED OVERSEAS VOTE BY MAIL. TO TRY TO CHANGE IT AT THIS LATE STAGE, IT SHOWS HIS CONTEMPT FOR DEMOCRACY. KAILEY: IT IS LATE AND SO LATE THAT THE REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS DECIDED TO TAKE TWO EXTRA WEEKS OFF TO GO BACK HOME. MR. MCGOVERN: THE ISSUE IS AFFORDABILITY, AFFORDABILITY, AFFORDABILITY. THE PEOPLE I MEET WITH ALL OVER THE COUNTRY THINK THINGS ARE TOO EXPENSIVE. THEY’RE COUNTING ON CONGRESS TO PASS LEGISLATION TO MAKE THINGS MORE AFFORDABLE.
海外派驻人员通过邮寄方式投票。试图在此刻改变这一做法，显示了他对民主的蔑视。凯利：时间已晚，而且晚到共和党国会领袖决定额外休假两周回家。麦戈文先生：问题是负担能力，负担能力，负担能力。我在全国各地见到的人都认为东西太贵了。他们指望国会通过立法使生活更加可负担。
GAS SOUTH OF CONTROL BY THIS -- BECAUSE OF THINK LEGAL AND RECKLESS WAR IN IRAN. THE RENT IS OUT OF CONTROL. YOU NAME IT, THE GROCERIES ARE OUT OF CONTROL BECAUSE OF THESE STUPID TARIFFS. THEY WANT US TO DO SOMETHING TO LOWER PRICES. WHAT HAS REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP ANNOUNCED TODAY? WE’RE GOING TO SKIP TOWN EARLY. AMERICANS ARE WORKING HARDER THAN EVER, CAN AFFORD LESS AND LESS, CONGRESS WILL GO ON RECESS. THEY’RE MORE WORRIED ABOUT GETTING RE-ELECTED THAN HELPING THEIR CONSTITUENTS.
油价失控——因为这场非法且鲁莽的伊朗战争。房租失控。你说什么都行，由于这些愚蠢的关税，食品杂货也失控了。他们希望我们做些什么来降低价格。共和党领导层今天宣布了什么？我们要提前离开华盛顿。美国人比以往工作更努力，能负担的东西却越来越少，而国会却要休会。他们更关心的是重新当选，而不是帮助他们的选民。
JOE: GOT THE C.R. PASSED, OR AT LEAST THE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP DID IS, THE GOVERNMENT STAYS OPEN THROUGH DECEMBER. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE TWO DEFECTIONS, GOLDEN AND GLUESEN CAMP PEREZ. IS THAT PART OF THE PROCESS? DID THEY MAKE IT EASIER FOR DEMOCRATS TO TAKE OVER? MR. MCGOVERN: OUR FOCUS NEEDS TO BE ON MAKING SURE WHEN WE WHEN WIN, WE CAN GOVERN. THE REPUBLICANS HAVE SHOWN US WHAT NOT TO DO. WE NEED TO MAKE SURE WE’RE UNITED IN BRINGING THE COST OF LIVING TO THE FLOOR, BRINGING BILLS TO THE FLOOR.
乔：通过了持续决议案（CR），或者说至少是共和党领导层做到了，政府将维持运营至十二月。你怎么看待金和格鲁森·坎普·佩雷斯的两名议员倒戈？这是过程的一部分吗？这是否让民主党更容易接管？麦戈文先生：我们的重点需要放在确保当我们获胜时，能够进行治理上。共和党向我们展示了什么是不该做的。我们需要确保团结一致，将生活成本问题、账单问题提交到议事日程。
JOE: DID THEY BETRAY THE FAMILY IN. MR. MCGOVERN: IN ANY FAMILY THERE ARE HICCUPS. WE ARE UNITED AS A KAW COUPLES I THINK THE FOCUS IS ON AFFORDABILITY AND HOW WE CAN LOWER COSTS FOR CONSTITUENTS. KAILEY: DO THERE NEED TO BE RULE CHANGES WITHIN THE CAUCUS AS A RESULT? MR. MCGOVERN: I THINK WE NEED TO MAKE SURE WE’RE COMMUNICATING WITH EACH OTHER AND I’M CONFIDENT THAT’S WHAT WE’LL DOYLE. JOE: LET’S TALK ABOUT WHAT YOU’RE GOING TODO.
乔：他们背叛了党内家庭吗？麦戈文先生：在任何家庭中都会出现波折。我认为作为一个整体我们是团结的，重点应放在负担能力以及如何为选民降低成本上。凯利：因此，党团内部是否需要修改规则？麦戈文先生：我认为我们需要确保彼此沟通，我有信心我们会做到这一点。乔：让我们谈谈你打算做什么。
THE RUSSIA SANCTIONS BILL, FOR INSTANCE, WAS LEFT UNADDRESSED. IS THAT SOMETHING THAT DEMOCRATS WOULD HAVE VOTED AGAINST EN MASSE? IS THERE SOMETHING WE NEED? MR. MCGOVERN: THERE ARE SOME EFFORTS IN THE BILL DEMOCRATS ARE OK WITH AND SOME PARTS THEY’RE NOT. I THINK IT NEEDS A LOT OF WORK. BUT WE SHOULD BE IN SESSION, WORKING OUT DIFFERENCES, WORKING OUT SOLUTIONS. NOT ONLY IN TERM OF OUR FOREIGN POLICY. I MEAN WE NEED TO PRESS THE ADMINISTRATION ON A CLEARLY DEFINED MISSION NIGH RAN.
例如，俄罗斯制裁法案未被处理。这是民主党人会集体投反对票的事情吗？是否有我们需要关注的事项？麦戈文先生：法案中有一些民主党人同意的部分，也有一些不同意的部分。我认为它需要大量修改。但我们应该处于会议状态，解决分歧，寻求解决方案。这不仅涉及我们的外交政策。我的意思是，我们需要在明确界定的使命方面向政府施压。
ARE WE GOING THROB FOREVER? I LISTENED TO THE VICE PRESIDENT TODAY IN HIS PRESS CONFERENCE, I WAS EMBARRASSED. I WAS EMBARRASSED FOR OUR COUNTRY THAT HE COULDN’T BRING HIMSELF TO CALL ATE WAR. TELL THAT TO THE FAMILIES OF THOSE WHO LOST THEIR LIVES. TELL THAT TO FAMILIES OF THOSE WOUND OVER THERE. WE HAVE 50,000 TROOPS DEPLOYED WHO ARE IN DANGER RIGHT NOW. WE JUST RECENTLY BOMBED A WEDDING WHERE WE KILLED AN 8-YEAR-OLD IRANIAN BOY.
我们难道要永远这样下去吗？今天我听了副总统在新闻发布会上的讲话，我感到很尴尬。我为我们的国家感到尴尬，因为他竟然无法开口称这是一场战争。去告诉那些失去亲人的家属吧。去告诉那些在那里受伤的人的家属吧。我们有5万名部署在海外的士兵，他们现在正处于危险之中。我们最近刚刚轰炸了一场婚礼，导致一名8岁的伊朗男孩死亡。
SO TO SAYS THIS NOT A WAR, I MEAN WHAT KIND OF ELITE BUBBLE IS J.D. VANCE LIVING IN? BUT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, I THINK, ARE CRINGING WHEN THEY HEAR HIM AND THE PRESIDENT TALKING IN SUCH, I’M TRYING TO THINK OF A CONGRESSIONAL WAY TO PUT THIS, IN SUCH A STUPID WAY. KAILEY: WHEN IT COME OS TO THE WAR AND ITS IMPACT AT HOME, MOST OF THAT IS BEING TRANSLATED ECONOMICALLY THROUGH HIGHER GAS PRICES. THE PRESIDENT SUGGESTS PERHAPS
所以他说这不是一场战争，我的意思是J.D.万斯生活在什么样的精英泡沫里？但是我认为，当美国人民听到他和总统用如此……我想找个国会里得体的说法来描述这种愚蠢的方式时，他们会感到不适。凯利：谈到战争及其在国内的影响，大部分是通过更高的汽油价格在经济上体现出来的。总统建议也许
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力