美伊冲突持续:霍尔木兹海峡军事对峙与油价反应
No End in Sight for US-Iran Conflict
No new US strikes overnight, but President Trump also warning that the US is prepared to strike again. So what do you make of it? Or where do things stand? It's a bit confusing, Lizzie. I mean, you just said it. President Trump saying the U.S. has control over the Strait of Hormuz. You said that Iran may not agree with this. And that is definitely the question now, right, because Iran has been trying to assert dominance over the Strait of Hormuz since the start of this war over six months ago at this point.
夜间没有新的美国空袭,但特朗普总统也警告称,美国已准备好再次发动打击。您对此有何看法?或者说目前的局势如何?这有点令人困惑,Lizzie。我的意思是,您刚才已经提到了。特朗普总统表示美国控制了霍尔木兹海峡。您也说伊朗可能不会同意这一点。而这正是现在的关键问题,对吧?因为自六个多月前这场战争开始以来,伊朗一直在试图确立对霍尔木兹海峡的主导地位。
But where do things stand now? Well, we returned to military escalations at the start of this week, a little contained, of course, President Trump saying that the U.S. had taken out all of the new equipment that Iran had tried to build along the Strait of Hormuz, some defensive, some offensive. But then he said that the military escalations that had restarted are short lived. And that's why you're seeing you're seeing energy prices, Brent crude, namely, not doing much in reaction to the strikes that we saw in the early hours of this morning, namely on Kuwait.
那么目前局势究竟如何呢?嗯,本周初我们回到了军事升级的状态,当然这种升级是有限度的。特朗普总统表示,美国摧毁了伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡沿线新建的所有装备,其中一些用于防御,另一些用于进攻。但他随后表示,重启的军事升级将是短暂的。这就是为什么我们看到布伦特原油等能源价格对今晨早些时候我们在科威特看到的空袭反应不大的原因。
Of course, Iran's retaliation happened yesterday into the early hours of this morning against countries in the region Jordan, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain. But then again, as I mentioned, this is contained. So nothing like what we had seen back at the peak of this war in March. And this is definitely what energy traders are looking at. The back and forth of course, still continues. The diplomacy is nowhere in sight. And perhaps these are Bloomberg Economics team puts it best.
当然,伊朗的报复行动发生在昨天至今天凌晨,针对的是该地区的一些国家:约旦、阿联酋、科威特和巴林。但正如我提到的,这次报复是有限的。因此,这与我们在今年三月战争高峰期所看到的情况完全不同。而这正是能源交易员们关注的重点。当然,双方的来回交锋仍在继续。外交途径依然遥遥无期。也许彭博经济学团队(Bloomberg Economics)对此总结得最为恰当。
They say that at this point, the entire Middle East is an arena for war, and there's no clear winner inside. This is what's key right now, is that it looks like neither the United States nor Iran are winning, and the offramp is as far fetched as possible at the time being busy. So a really complicated situation that keeps getting more complicated by the day.
他们表示,就目前而言,整个中东已成为一个战场,且内部没有明确的赢家。现在的关键在于,看起来美国和伊朗都没有获胜,而目前的脱身方案(offramp)显得遥不可及。这是一个非常复杂的局面,而且每天都在变得更加复杂。
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