博通称AI芯片收入将连年翻倍，Anthropic成最大客户

NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS. THIS IS THE PULSE. LIZZY: THIS MORNING TECH SHARES IN FOCUS AFTER BROADCOM SAID AI CHIP REVENUE WILL DOUBLE THIS YEAR AND AGAIN THE FOLLOWING YEAR. POLICYMAKERS ARE DISCUSSING HOW TO KEEP OUR UNDER CONTROL -- AI UNDER CONTROL. WITH ME IS BLOOMBERG'S SENIOR STRATEGIST NEIL CAMPLING AND TECH EDITOR. BROADCOM IS LOOKING TO CHALLENGE NVIDIA'S DOMINANCE IN THE CHIP SPACE. I WAS SPEAKING TO BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE EARLIER AND HE SAYS, DON'T SEE THEM AS RIVALS.

CAI AS A TIDE THAT LIFTS ALL BOATS. NEIL: BOTH CAN BE TRUE. THE INSATIABLE DEMAND FOR AR IS LIFTING EVERYONE. ALTERNATIVE ECOSYSTEMS ARE WANTED PARTIALLY BECAUSE OF TIGHT SUPPLY AND PARTIALLY BECAUSE OF THE COST OF THE NVIDIA SYSTEM. BROADCOM HAS BEEN WORKING PRIMARILY WITH GOOGLE ON THESE NEW CHIPS, A CHEAPER ALTERNATIVE PLATFORM. THE MOST INTERESTING THING FROM BROADCOM'S CONFERENCE CALL LAST NIGHT WAS THEY WERE SAYING OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS, THE BIGGEST CUSTOMER TODAY, GOOGLE, WILL BECOME THE THIRD BIGGEST CUSTOMER BECAUSE OF THE RAPID GROWTH BY ANTHROPIC TO BECOME THE BIGGEST FOLLOWED BY OPENAI.

LIZZY: LOOKING AT MARKET MOVES, I WANT TO COME BACK TO THAT AFTERWARDS. SHONA, ON THE REGULATION STORY WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT THE G 20 MEETING IN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE AI IS A BIG TOPIC. DO YOU HAVE THE WORLD'S BIGGEST ECONOMIES AGREEING TO THE U.S. PROPOSAL FOR A LIGHT TOUCH APPROACH. WHAT IS THAT WHEN IT COMES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA PRINCIPLES? CAROLINA PRINCIPLES, I SHOULD SAY? SHONA: WHILE THIS IS IN THEORY AND AGREEMENT, NOBODY IS OBLIGATED TO ENFORCE THESE PRINCIPLES.

IT SUPPORTS THE U.S. APPROACH TO ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, WHICH IS TO SAY, DO NOT REGULATE BEFORE YOU KNOW THERE IS A PROBLEM. DO NOT CREATE NEW BODIES. THAT IS HOW EUROPE APPROACHES THINGS IN REGULATION TO REGULATE TECHNOLOGY BEFORE ISSUES ARISE. MAKE IT EASY FOR TECHNOLOGY TO DEVELOP. ENCOURAGE THE CONSTRUCTION OF DATA CENTERS. MAYBE EASE UP ON THE COPYRIGHT REGIME. AMERICA'S REGIME AROUND COPYRIGHT MAKES IT EASY TO TRAIN AR MODELS AND YOU CANNOT TRAIN AI MODELS IN EUROPE BECAUSE OF COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

THERE IS A SENSE THAT MAYBE WE SHOULD EASE RESTRICTIONS AROUND THAT. INTERESTINGLY CHINA HAS SIGNED UP TO THESE PRINCIPLES DESPITE HAVING ITS OWN AI RULES ALREADY. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN PRACTICE. NASDAQ FUTURES HIGHER. THE KPS OSPI SWING FROM GAINS TO LOSSES. WHAT KNOCKED SENTIMENT EARLIER IN THE DAY? NEIL: WE HAVE LOW VOLUMES IN MARKETS STILL AND THAT WILL CONTINUE. WE NEED TO GET BACK TO SCHOOL, ETC..

WE ARE LOOKING FOR INCOME INFORMATION TO COME OUT THAT WILL COME FROM THE CONFERENCE SEASON NEXT WEEK. WE HAD MIXED MESSAGES FROM THE SEMICONDUCTOR CONFERENCE IN TAIWAN. TALKING ABOUT BOTTLENECKS IN PARTS OF THE MARKET IN BROADCOM SHORT-TERM CORRECT -- GUIDANCE IS BEING CURTAILED BECAUSE OF BOTTLENECKS. THERE IS HIGH DEMAND, BUT PERHAPS, RESTRICTING SOME GROWTH. CONCERNS OVER MEMORY PRICES CONTINUE. THERE IS NO SIGN OF SLOW DOWN WITH MEMORY COSTS GOING HIGHER.

TECH, BY ITS VERY NATURE, LONG-TERM, SHOULD BE DEFLATIONARY. LIZZY: I WANT TO GO BACK TO THE GEOPOLITICAL SIDE. THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS CONSIDERING A FRESH ROUND OF TARIFFS ON CHIP IMPORTS TO BRING MANUFACTURING BACK TO THE U.S.. U.S. COMMERCE SECRETARY HOWARD LET NICK HAD THIS MESSAGE TO SEMICONDUCTOR COMPANIES. LET'S LISTEN.

BUILD IT HERE AND YOU WILL NOT PAY FTA TARIFF WHILE YOU ARE BUILDING. LIZZY: INVEST IN THE U.S., AND YOU SHALL BE SPARED. WHICH COMPANIES WILL BE IMPACTED NEGATIVELY? SHONA: IT SEEMS LIKE THIS MIGHT IMPACT SOME OF THE ASIAN MEMORY CHIP MAKER'S MOST HEAVILY, SAMSUNG, SK HYNIX, MAYBE TSMC. THEY ALL HAVE SLIGHT INVESTMENT IN THE U.S., BUT THERE IS A QUESTION ABOUT WHAT THEY ARE BUILDING IN THE U.S.. IS IT THE PACKAGING SIDE OF THE CHIP OR A CORE TECHNOLOGY?

IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT FACILITIES, BUT WHETHER THE CHIPS THEMSELVES ARE ACTUALLY BEING MANUFACTURED IN THE U.S. AND TARIFFS BEING APPLIED IF YOU HAVE LOTS OF FACILITIES OVERSEAS AND YOU ARE SHIPPING PRODUCTS IN. TO ME, IT FEELS LIKE ASIAN MANUFACTURERS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR. LIZZY: GET UP-TO-DATE NEWS ON ALL THINGS AI. GO TO BLOOMBERG.COM/NEWSLETTERS TO SUBSCRIBE. THE YEN IS GAINING FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT DAY TODAY. 15 689 PER DOLLAR IS WHERE WE TRADE, FUELING INTERVENTION SPECULATION.

THE BANK OF JAPAN IS LEADING TOWARDS A .25 POINT HIKE AND WILL BE STAYING FLEXIBLE ON THE PACE OF FUTURE HIKES. LET'S BRING IN CLAUDIA FROM UBS WEALTH MANAGEMENT. GREAT TO SEE YOU AGAIN THIS MORNING. I WONDER WHAT THESE -- IF THESE YEN MOVES LOOK OR SMELL LIKE INTERVENTION TO YOU? CLAUDIA: SINCE JULY, WE HAVE SEEN THE YEN MOVING BACK AND WEAKENING AGAIN. I THINK THAT BOJ PRICING IS ALREADY IN. WHAT MATTERS FOR THE YEN AND EXCHANGE RATES IS RATES THAT CONTINUE TO BE VERY NEGATIVE.

TO KEEP THE YEN AT A HIGH-LEVEL, MORE NEEDS TO BE DONE. FOR US, THERE IS A RISK OF THE CURRENCY WEAKENING. LIZZY: HOW INVOLVED DO YOU EXPECT TO THE U.S. TO BE IN SUPPORTING THE YEN IF THE BANK OF JAPAN DOES NOT DELIVER A JUMBO HIKE OR BACK HIKES? CLAUDIA: I MEAN, WE HAVE NOT REALLY SEEN THE SAME SCENARIO. AT THE END OF JULY, AS I WAS MATURING IN, THE TREASURY TODAY IS REALLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE MOVEMENT ON THE BOND DEAL.

WHAT THE TREASURY DOES NOT WANT IS THE BOJ SELLING MORE TREASURY TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS AND KEEP THE YEN APPRECIATING. I THINK IT IS A MIX, FOR ME, BETWEEN THE MOVEMENT WE HAVE, AND ALSO A MIX BETWEEN A CONCERN RELATIVE TO MORE PRESSURE ON THE BOND YIELDS IN THE U.S.. A CONCERN, ALSO, THAT WE MAY HAVE MORE WEAKENING ON THE DOLLAR SIDE. AND ON THE OTHER SIDE, THE FED IS REPRICING B BOJ MONETARY POLICY. AND YOU HAVE MORE FLOW COMING INTO JAPAN AND REALLOCATION OF PENSION FUNDS AND BANKS IN JAPAN OUT OF THE TREASURY INTO THE BOND MARKET IN JAPAN AS THE YIELD IS NOW GETTING -- YEN IS GETTING VERY, VERY ATTRACTIVE.

LIZZY: A SENSE OF VESTED INTEREST WHEN IT COMES TO U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE TREASURY MARKET, HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 5% LEVEL FOR YIELDS? WHAT IS A LEVEL THAT WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT EQUITIES? CLAUDIA: THIS IS QUITE INTERESTING. I GOT THIS QUESTION SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. TO THE U.S. MARKET IS REALLY, REALLY STRONG. WHAT MATTERS IS THE SPEED OF THE MOVEMENT ON THE YIELD.

ON THE OTHER SIDE, EQUITIES, IS EARNINGS GROWTH. SECOND-QUARTER EARNINGS WERE VERY, VERY STRONG WITH GROWTH. IT IS EXCEEDING OUR FORECAST AND MARKET FORECASTS. IF YOU HAVE A BOND DEAL MOVING AT 5%, AT THE SAME TIME, GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE RESILIENT. THEN, THE MARKET WILL CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL. ON THE OTHER SIDE, IF YOU HAVE GROWTH AND A SLOWDOWN IN THE LEAD INDICATOR AND THE CONTINUED RISE. IF THE MARKET STARTS TO REPRICE, THERE'S SORT OF A STAG FLATION SCENARIO, WE WOULD BE AT RISK FOR EQUITY OVERALL.

FOR THE TIME BEING, THAT'S NOT THE CASE. THE CASE IS STRONGER DATA THAN EXPECTED AND BOND YIELDS ARE MOVING HIGHER BECAUSE REPRICING OF THE CENTRAL BANK MOVE. EVERYBODY IS NOW EXPECTING A RATE HIKE FROM THE FED, ONE IN SEPTEMBER AND A SECOND ONE IN DECEMBER. IF YOU HAVE GROWTH, THE MOVEMENT ON THE YEN WILL BE OFFSET BY NOMINAL EARNINGS THAT ARE STILL VERY POSITIVE. LIZZY: STILL VERY POSITIVE, BUT DO YOU ACTUALLY THINK THEY MIGHT TAPER OFF A BIT IN THE THIRD QUARTER?

CLAUDIA: WE HAVE PROBABLY SEEN THE PEAK OF GROWTH. BUT, GROWTH WILL STILL BE VERY, VERY POSITIVE AND DOUBLE-DIGIT. CLEARLY, SECOND QUARTER VERY STRONG. Q3, Q4, WE WILL BE POSITIVE. NOT AS STRONG AS SECOND-QUARTER, BUT STILL POSITIVE. WHAT WE HAVE SEEN, ALSO, IT IS MULTIPLE ATTRACTION. YOU HAD PRICE MOVEMENT, WHICH WAS LOWER THAN THE MOVEMENT WE HAD ON EARNINGS IN 2027 WILL BE REVISED UP AS WELL BECAUSE WE HAVE A BROADENING OF EARNINGS.

IT'S NOT JUST RELATED TO AI. LIZZY: DETERMINING THE FED PASS AHEAD HOW SIGNIFICANT IS TOMORROW'S PAYROLLS REPORT COMPARED TO PCI AND PCE COMING UP? CLAUDIA: BOTH ARE VERY IMPORTANT. BECAUSE I HAVE BEEN SPEAKING A LOT OF CLIENTS AND HE END OF THE SUMMER, I AM THINKING, HOW MUCH DOES IT REALLY MATTER? YOU ALREADY HAVE TWO HIKES PRICED

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