美伊冲突升级致油价飙升及全球债市抛售

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LIVE FROM BRUSSELS THIS IS BLOOMBERG "DAYBREAK EUROPE." I’M OLIVER CROOK. THE BATTLE FOR HORMUZ INTENSIFIES, THE U.S. AND IRAN TRADE NEW ATTACKS FENDING THE FEAR OF INFLATION. THE 30-YEAR YIELDS REAPPROACH THE HIGHS OF 2007 AND UKRAINE’S WARNING, PRESIDENT ZELENSKY TELLS AIRLINES TO AVOID RUSSIAN AIR SPACE, THREATENING TO SHUT DOWN TRAFFIC OVER THE COUNTRY IN RESPONSE TO MOSCOW’S ATTACK. THE CROSS-ASSET PICTURE, YOU CAN SEE IT THERE ACROSS THE BOARD IN FULL FOCUS, THE LONG END OF THE U.S.

TREASURY CURVE. IS THE 30-YEAR YIELD IN THE UNITED STATES. 5.28%. EFFECTIVELY THE SORT OF FEIGNS WE SAW IN THE BOND MARKETS AFTER THE BESSENT INTERVENTION A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. NOT QUITE AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS WE REACHED THIS YEAR. BRENT CRUDE IN FULL FOCUS THIS MORNING, ALMOST ONE PERCENTAGE POINT, UP .6 AT 95 DOLLAR AS BARREL. AND GAS FUTURES HERE IN EUROPE UP 2.2%. THE HIGHEST WE’VE SEEN NATURAL GAS SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2023.

THE MISC ASIA PACIFIC INDEX THIS MORNING TRADING A LITTLE BIT LOWER, DOWN BY 2%. EURO STOXX 50 FUTURES DOWN BY ABOUT .5%. WE’RE WATCHING THE RISK EVENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A.D.P. JOB NUMBERS FOR THE UNITED STATES. THE SECOND PART OF THE MANDATE, WE’LL BE WATCHING THAT VERY CLOSELY. ALSO THE FED BEIGE BOOK COMING OUT AT 7:00 FM EUROPEAN TIME. WE’LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IN THE EARNINGS PICTURE. A LOT TO GET THROUGH THERE MORNING.

LET’S GET INTO IT. ♪ ASIAN STOCKS ARE FALLING THIS MORNING AS OIL PRICES CLIMB AND BONDS FACE CONTINUED SELLING PICTURE WITH THAT YIELD PICTURE ACROSS THE BOARD AND ACROSS THE WORLD RISING. LET’S CHECK IN WITH WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG. GOOD MORNING. WINNIE: GOOD MORNING. OIL PRICES PRESSURING GLOBAL STOCKS. WE WERE SEEING MSCI ASIA DOWN ABOUT 2% AFTER SIX DAYS OF GAUGES. WE ARE SEEING KOREA LEADING LOSSES. HOWEVER, WORTH NOTING THAT TAIWAN EASE STOCKS -- TAIWANESE STOCKS DOING WELL, PERHAPS SUPPORTED BY THIS ONGOING OPTIMISM AFTER NVIDIA’S INVESTMENT FROM YESTERDAY AND THE FORECAST FROM DELL TECHNOLOGIES.

TAIWANESE STOCKS OVERTOOK KOREAN STOCKS TO BECOME THE TOP PERFORMING GLOBAL GAUGE SO FAR THIS YEAR. GLOBAL BOND YEAR RISING AND THAT IS WHAT WE SEE IN ASIA AS WELL WITH THE JAPAN 10-YEAR YIELD STILL SITTING ABOVE THAT 3% KEY LEVEL. SIMILAR MOVES IN THE AUSTRALIA BONDS AS WELL BUT THAT IS ALSO COMING AFTER THE SECOND QUARTER G.D.P. NUMBERS CAME THROUGH STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. SO WE ARE SEEING THE THREE-YEAR YIELD HERE THE HIGHEST SINCE MARCH AS WELL AS THE 10-YEAR YIELD STILL AROUND THOSE HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE 2011 AND INTERESTINGLY, SOMETHING THAT’S MOVING THE OTHER WAY SUSPECT BONDS IN NEW ZEALAND AND THAT IS COMING DESPITE THE RATE HIKE FROM THE CENTRAL BANK THAT IS PERHAPS BECAUSE INVESTORS ARE MORE FOCUSED ON HOW THE MESSAGE IS LEANING TOWARDS THE DOVEISH SIDE OF THINGS AND EXPECTING A LOWER RATE FORECAST FOR NEXT YEAR AND THAT’S ALSO REFLECTED INSPECT CURRENCY WITH THE KIWI DOLLAR LEADING LOSSES AMONG ASIAN CURRENCIES, WEAKENING MORE THAN A PERCENT AGAINST DOLLAR.

JAPANESE YEN CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER THAN THAT 160 LEVEL AGAINST THE DOLLAR BUT INTERESTINGLY, KOREAN YUAN TODAY BUCKING THE TREND. STILL SUPPORTED BY THE AI DEMAND. BACK TO YOU, OLLIE. OLIVER: WINNIE HSU, THANK YOU. OVER IN ASIA, THE COMMODITY MARKET, ENERGY PRICES ARE EXTENDING GAINS AS THE UNITED STATES AND IRAN TRADED FRESH STRIKES. THE U.S. SAID IT LATEST STRIKES TARGETED IRAN’S AIR DEFENSES, MARITIME ASSETS AND MINE-LAYING CAPABILITIES.

TEHRAN SAYS THAT THE RENEWED FIGHTING HAS TIGHTENED IT GRIPS ON HORMUZ. LET’S BRING IN ABEER ABU OMAR. ANOTHER SET OF TIT FOR TAT ATTACKS. BRING US UP TO SPEED. ABEER: GOOD MORNING. WE’RE BACK TO SOME SORT OF KINETIC WARFARE, NOTHING LIKE WE SAW BACK IN MARCH BUT WE’RE SEEING CANED TIT FOR TAT ATTACKS I WOULD SAY UNTIL THIS MORNING WITH THE U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND SAYING IT LAUNCHED ATTACKS ON THE SOUTHERN CITIES OF IRAN.

SOME CASUALTIES REPORTED AND THIS IS BECAUSE PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID IRAN HAD ATTEMPTED TO PUT MINES IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THAT FOLLOWS ATTACKS ON TWO SUPER TANKERS YESTERDAY IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. SO WE’RE SEEING AN ESCALATION ON ALL FRONT. PRESIDENT TRUMP ALSO SAYING THAT HE REALLY DOESN’T CARE WHETHER IRAN COMES BACK TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE. IRANIAN RESPONSE WAS THROUGH THE PRESIDENT OF IRAN WHO WAS IN KURDISTAN IN A CONFERENCE SAYING IRAN IS READY TO GO BACK TO THE M.O.U.

CONCESSIONS IF THE UNITED STATES COMES BACK TO DIPLOMACY AND BEFORE THAT THE FOREIGN MINISTER OF IRAN SAID THEY WOULD ONLY COME BACK IF THE UNITED STATES WERE TO CEASE IT NOT ONLY MILITARY PRESSURE BUT THE ECONOMIC PRESSURE THAT BESSENT HAD LAID OUT. SO THE MILITARY ESCALATION, THE KINETIC PLAY OR THE SANCTIONS THAT SCOTT BESSENT LAID OUT ON COUNTRIES THAT CONTINUE TO DO BUSINESS WITH IRAN. MEANTIME, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS AT HEART OF THIS AND THE THREATS POSED ON TANKERS AND SHIPS ARE MORE HEIGHTENED THAN BEFORE IN THE WATERWAY.

OLIVER: THAT’S RIGHT. WE’RE LEARNING FROM AXIOS THERE MAY BE A NEW POLICY -- COMING FROM THE UNITED STATES. GOING IF A TIT FOR TAT TO A TANKER FOR TANKER POLICY. HOW SIGNIFICANT WOULD THAT SHIFT BE? ABEER: THERE IS A DOMINO EFFECT TO ALL OF THIS. IF THAT PERSPECTIVE WERE TO START HAPPENING ON A MORE PERSISTENT BASIS WHERE THE U.S. STRIKES AND IRAN STRIKES BACK. AND A RETALIATION. WHAT YOU’LL SEE THE BRENT GOING HIGHER.

THAT BRINGS ABOUT THE INFLATION CONCERNS, BRINGS ABOUT WHAT THE FED DECIDES TO DO AND MOST IMPORTANTLY IT BRINGS THE DOMESTIC SITUATION WITHIN THE UNITED STATES, THOSE LOOMING MIDTERM ELECTIONS SO THE CONTRAST BETWEEN PRESIDENT TRUMP’S WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE UNPOPULARITY THAT IT’S GAINING WITHIN THE UNITED STATES AND THEN HIS REMARKS ABOUT HIM NOT CARE ABOUT WHETHER IRAN COMES BACK TO THE TABLE AND HIM ACTUALLY SAYING THAT HE BELIEVES THAT THE U.S.

HAS THE UPPER HAND OR IS IN A BETTER FOGS RIGHT NOW. SO IT’S NOT A VERY SUSTAINABLE SOLUTION. A VERY SENIOR DIPLOMATIC DEVISOR HERE TO THE PRESIDENT OF THE U.A.E. SAID A COUPLE OF DAYS ABOUT THAT THIS STATE OF THE REGION OF NO WAR/NO PEACE IS COMPLETELY UNSUSTAINABLE AND A IT’S GOING TO ECONOMICALLY DRAG DOWN EVERYONE IN THE REGION, A SCENARIO OR END TO THIS THAT NO ONE WANTS. SO THAT IS AN UNSUSTAINABLE SOLUTION, THE TIT FOR TAT ATTACKS ON TANKERS.

OLIVER: BLOOMBERG’S ABEER ABU OMAR IN DUBAI. THE U.S. 30-YEAR YIELD HAS CLIMBED BACK ABOVE LEVELS SINCE BEFORE SECRETARY TREASURY BESSENT’S DECISION TO BUYBACK BONDS. 30-YEAR YIELDS ACROSS EUROPE WITH 30 YEAR HIGHS. VEN RAM IS WITH US. IS THERE ANYTHING THAT CAN BE DONE IN THIS BOND MARKET TO CONTAIN PRESSURE AND REASSURE PEOPLE? VEN: NOT IN THE SHORT TERM. I THINK THE MARKETS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE DESPERATELY LOOKING FAR CIRCUIT BREAKER.

THEY CAN’T FIND ANY. WHY? TWO REASONS. THE GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK IMPULSE. IN NEW ZEALAND THIS MORNING THEY RAISED RATES AND THEY SAID THERE’S MORE RATE HIKES TO COME IN. AUSTRALIA SECOND QUARTER CAME IN BETTER THAN FORECAST AND THAT MARKET HAS ALREADY SYRIAN RATES GO UP BY 75 BASIS POINTS THIS YEAR AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA THEY BE COMPELLED TO GO EVEN FURTHER. THAT IS NEGATIVE FOR BONDS. WE ALREADY KNOW THAT IN THE EUROZONE, TRADERS ARE FAC FACTORRORING IN MORE RATE CREASES AND THE YOUR OFF-SEASON CENTRAL BANK IS LIKELY TO DELIVER ONE THIS MONTH.

AND KEVIN WARSH SOUNDED VERY HAWKISH LAST WEEK, SETTING THE STAGE FOR POLICY TIGHTENING BY THE FED. WHETHER IT HAPPENS IN SEPTEMBER OR DECEMBER IS IMMATERIAL BUT THE HIKE IS COMING. THIS PROVIDES GLOBAL NEGATIVE IMPACT FOR BONDS. THE OTHER THING IS SURGING CRUDE PRICES. BRENT CRUDE IS IN THE VICINITY OF $100 A BARREL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES IN EUROPE ARE SURGING TO A THREE-YEAR HIGH. IF YOU PUT ALL OF THESE TOGETHER, YOU SEE THAT GLOBAL BONDS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO SELL OFF, PROBABLY UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN THEY WILL FIND -- WAIT FOR THE CENTRAL BANK ACTION FROM THE FED AND THE ECB AND THE BANK OF JAPAN.

OLIVER: WE HEARD FROM THE BANK OF JAPAN. GOVERNOR UEDA SAYING THAT OFFICIALS ARE WATCHING UPSIDE RISK AND SCOTT BESSENT SAID IT’S TIME FOR TAKAICHI ECONO