美对伊朗重启空袭致油价飙升美股下跌
US Launches New Iran Strikes | Radio Balance of Power: Early Edition 9/1/2026
重大地缘事件实际升级，直接冲击全球能源供应链并引发跨资产（股、债、商品）剧烈波动，需密切关注后续冲突演变及避险情绪变化。
LIVE FROM WASHINGTON DC. THIS IS BALANCE OF JOE MATHIEU AND KAILEY LEINZ. JOE: THE U.S. RESUMES STRIKES AS BIG OIL ARRIVES AT THE WHITE HOUSE. WELCOME TO THE TUESDAY EDITION AS THE AIR FORCE POUNDS TARGETS AROUND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. OIL AND GAS EXECUTIVES PREPARE TO MEET WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP TO TALK IRAN AND VENEZUELA. I'M JOE MATHIEU ALONGSIDE KAILEY LEINZ. WE ARE WATCHING OIL PRICES MOVE AS WE SPEAK. KAILEY: THE DIRECTION IS HIGHER. $93 A BARREL ON BRENT JUST SHY OF 90 ON WTI.
来自华盛顿特区的直播。这里是乔·马修和凯莉·莱因茨的《平衡》节目。乔：美国恢复空袭，大型石油公司高管抵达白宫。欢迎收看周二版节目，空军正对霍尔木兹海峡周边的目标进行轰炸。油气行业高管准备与特朗普总统会面，讨论伊朗和委内瑞拉问题。我是乔·马修，旁边是凯莉·莱因茨。我们正密切关注油价的实时变动。凯莉：趋势是上涨的。布伦特原油每桶93美元，WTI原油略低于90美元。
THIS IS NOT THE DIRECTION THE PRESIDENT WOULD LIKE THINGS TO HEAD. THIS IS WHY HE IS TOUTING THIS MOVE TO TAKE A CONTROLLING STAKE IN VENEZUELA PAID OIL THEY COULD BRING DOWN PRICES EVENTUALLY. THE QUESTION IS THE TIMELINE WHICH MAY BE LONGER THAN IS POLITICALLY ADVANTAGEOUS. WE EXPECT TO HEAR MORE ABOUT THAT THIS HOUR. HAPPENS TO BE THE EXACT SAME TIME AS THE CONTINUING RESOLUTION VOTE IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.
这并非总统希望看到的方向。这就是他大力宣扬此举的原因——夺取委内瑞拉石油的控制权，这些石油最终可能压低价格。问题在于时间表，这可能比政治上有利的时间更长。我们预计这一小时内会听到更多关于此事的消息。巧合的是，这与众议院关于持续决议案的投票时间完全相同。
JOE: STRADDLING PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE TODAY THAT'S THE ONE THING THIS CONGRESS MIGHT GET DONE BEFORE THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS IS A CR. WE SAW THIS COMING. THIS WOULD FUND THE GOVERNMENT THROUGH DECEMBER 11TH. THEY CAN COME BACK AND MAYBE HASH OUT A REAL BUDGET. KAILEY: REPUBLICAN CONGRESSMAN MARLIN STUTZMAN WILL JOIN US AS WELL AS CONGRESSMAN MADELEINE DEAN. I WILL BE INTERESTED TO GET HER TAKE ESPECIALLY ON WHAT MAY NOT MAKE IT ACROSS THE HOUSE FLOOR WHICH IS THE RUSSIA SANCTIONS BILL THAT PASSED WITH A BIPARTISAN MARGIN IN THE SENATE.
乔：今天在宾夕法尼亚大道两端周旋，这是本届国会可能在中期选举前完成的一件事，即通过持续决议案（CR）。我们早就预料到了这一点。这将使政府资金延续至12月11日。他们可以回来，也许能敲定一份真正的预算。凯莉：共和党众议员马林·施图茨曼也将加入我们，还有众议员麦迪琳·迪恩。我很想听听她的看法，特别是关于那些可能无法在众议院通过的议题，例如参议院以两党多数票通过的俄罗斯制裁法案。
HOUSE DEMOCRATS TAKING ISSUE WITH THE TERROR OF POWER THAT EXTENDS TO THE PRESIDENT AND MAY NOT FIND A WAY FORWARD. JOE: THERE'S A CHANCE THEY DO THIS VOTE AND THEY ALL GO HOME. DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH HERE. WE MAY JUST BE READY TO GO BACK ON RECESS. KAILEY: IT WOULD BE NICE IF WE GOT AS MANY DAYS OFF. THE MARKET NEVER TAKES A DAY OFF IN THE REGULAR COURSE OF THE TRADING WEEK. CHARLIE DOESN'T GET MANY DAYS OFF EITHER.
民主党人对延伸至总统的权力扩张表示异议，且可能找不到前进的道路。乔：他们有可能进行这次投票然后各自回家。别抱太大希望。我们可能随时准备休会。凯莉：如果能多放几天假就好了。在正常的交易周内，市场从不休息。查理也没多少休息时间。
HE'S ALSO WATCHING FROM NEW YORK. CHARLIE: IN THE LAST HOUR WE BROUGHT YOU NEWS THE U.S. IS LAUNCHED STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN TARGETS AROUND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ FOLLOWING IRAN'S ATTACKS ON COMMERCIAL SHIPPING. FORCES IN THE REGION U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND SAID IT BEGAN STRIKES ON ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS TARGETS FOLLOWING IRAN'S ATTACKS ON COMMERCIAL SHIPPING AND AMERICAN FORCES IN THE REGION. WE ARE SEEING THE SURGING CRUDE OIL PRICES WITH WEST TEXAS UP FOUR AND A HALF PERCENT.
他也从纽约关注着局势。查理：在过去一小时里，我们向您报道了美国对伊朗周边霍尔木兹海峡的目标发动袭击的消息，此前伊朗袭击了商业航运。该地区的美军中央司令部表示，在伊朗袭击商业航运和美国在该地区的部队后，美军开始对伊斯兰革命卫队目标发动打击。我们看到原油价格飙升，西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）上涨了4.5%。
BRENT ABOVE 90 FOR NOW. EQUITIES SELLING OFF WITH THE S&P DOWN 49. THE DOW WAS DOWN 8/10 OF 1%, NASDAQ DOWN 8/10 OF 1% AS WELL. THE PHILADELPHIA STOCK EXCHANGE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX DOWN 2%. THE 10 YEAR 4.78%. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE THE 30 YEAR MOVING BY 25%. SPOT GOLD DOWN. CRUDE THE BIG STORY RIGHT NOW. WTI UP 4.4%. JOE AND KAYLEE THAT'S THE BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. KAILEY: THANK YOU VERY MUCH. AS WE ARE SEEING OIL PRICES CLIMB HIGHER FOR A SECOND DAY AFTER WHAT WAS PERHAPS EXPECTED RETALIATION FOR RON'S ATTEMPTED REALITY -- RETALIATION AGAINST U.S.
布伦特原油目前高于90美元。股市抛售，标普500指数下跌49点。道琼斯指数下跌1%的8/10，纳斯达克指数同样下跌1%的8/10。费城证券交易所半导体指数下跌2%。10年期国债收益率4.78%。目前30年移动平均线变动25%。现货黄金下跌。原油是当前的大新闻。WTI上涨4.4%。乔和凯利，这是彭博商业快讯。凯莉：非常感谢。正如我们看到油价在第二天继续攀升，这可能是对罗恩试图实现现实——即针对美国——的报复性措施所预期的回应。
FORCES IN JORDAN. CENTRAL COMMAND SAYS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR U.S. FORCES BEGAN STRIKING ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS TARGETS IN IRAN. THEY SAY THEY FOLLOW RECENT ATTEMPTED ATTACKS AGAINST COMMERCIAL SHIPPING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND AGAINST AMERICAN SERVICE MEMBERS DEPLOYED TO THE REGION. PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID YESTERDAY THE U.S. RESPONSE WAS LIKELY TO COME. THE QUESTION WAS GOING TO BE DOES THAT END THINGS HERE OR COULD WE SEE THE SPIRAL INTO FURTHER ESCALATION.
约旦的力量。中央司令部表示，在过去一小时内，美军开始打击伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的目标。他们称，这些行动是对近期针对霍尔木兹海峡商业航运以及部署到该地区的美军人员的袭击企图作出的回应。特朗普总统昨天表示，美国的回应可能会到来。问题在于，这是否会就此结束事态，还是我们会看到局势进一步升级的螺旋式上升。
JOE: A QUESTION WE'VE BEEN ASKING A LOT WITH THE MARKETS. A CONVERSATION WITH MARLIN STUTZMAN. WHO WANT TO BRING IN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT TYLER KENDALL WITH US IN STUDIO. JUST FOR A QUICK READ ON WHAT WE KNOW BECAUSE THERE'S A LOT OF MOVING PARTS AT THE WHITE HOUSE. NOT ONLY THE RESUMPTION OF STRIKES BUT COINCIDING WITH THE MEETING WITH BIG OIL EXECUTIVES. WE HAVE A SENSE OF WHO WILL BE HERE AND WHAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT?
乔：这是我们一直在向市场提出的问题。与马林·斯图茨曼的对话。谁想邀请白宫记者泰勒·肯德尔与我们在演播室一起。只是为了快速了解一下我们知道的情况，因为白宫有很多动态部分。不仅是恢复打击，还与与大型石油公司高管的会议同时发生。我们了解谁会参加以及我们在谈论什么吗？
TYLER: REFINERS HAVE BEEN INVITED INCLUDING COMPANIES LIKE CHEVRON, MARATHON, VALERO. THOSE BIG NAMES WE KNOW HAVE BEEN ENGAGING WITH THIS WHITE HOUSE SO FAR THIS TERM GETTING DOWN PRICES CONSIDERING PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS IN PART BLAMED THE INJURIES FOR ALLEGED PRICE GOUGING. SAYING HE WILL INVESTIGATE THEM. IT SEEMS AT THIS MEETING WILL TAKE A NICER TONE PEOPLE FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER TELLING US THEY WILL DISCUSS MARKET DYNAMICS, HOW CAN THEY BOOST REFINING CAPACITY IN THE U.S..
泰勒：炼油厂已收到邀请，包括雪佛龙、马拉松、瓦莱罗等公司。这些我们熟悉的大型名字到目前为止一直与此届白宫接触，以降低价格，考虑到特朗普总统已将部分伤害归咎于 alleged price gouging（据称的价格欺诈）。他表示将对此进行调查。似乎在这次会议上，人们会以更温和的语气交谈，熟悉此事的人告诉我们，他们将讨论市场动态，如何在美国提高炼油能力。
THE LATEST NEWS OF THE STRIKES IS THREATENING SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE THOSE PRICES TRICKLE DOWN TO THE CONSUMER HITTING SEASONAL HIGHS NATIONAL AVERAGE FOR A GALLON OF GAS OVER FOUR DOLLARS A GALLON. THIS POINT IN THE SEASON IS PRETTY HIGH AS WE HEAD INTO LABOR DAY. KAILEY: SHOULD WE UNDERSTAND THIS IS THE U.S. RESPONSE BUT PRESIDENT TRUMP PROMISED IN WHICH THE SIGNAL ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THE U.S. MIGHT BE WILLING TO STRIKE AGAIN.
关于打击的最新消息是威胁供应中断，因为我们继续看到这些价格 trickle down（逐渐传导）给消费者，达到季节性高点，全国平均每加仑汽油超过四美元。在这个季节点上相当高，我们即将进入劳动节。凯莉：我们应该理解这是美国的回应，但特朗普总统承诺了信号，表明美国是否可能愿意再次打击。
LAST TIME WE SAW THIS GO TIT FOR TAT IT WAS 10 OR 11 DAYS IN A ROW IT WENT ON. TYLER: PRESIDENT TRUMP A TELEGRAPHED AS MUCH BREAD WE SAW IRAN TARGET U.S. FORCES IN JORDAN AND THE UAE. WHERE IT GOES FROM HERE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE. VERY CLEARLY THE REPORT IS INDICATING THE U.S. IS GOING AFTER THOSE TARGETS AROUND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ LIKELY HITTING ROCKET LAUNCHERS THE U.S. SAYS WERE INTENDED BY DRONES PAID THE U.S. THAT IT HAD CLEARED DRONES -- MINDS IN THE STRAIGHT AND TRUE THAT RED LINE SAYING THE U.S.
上次我们看到这种情况针锋相对时，连续发生了10或11天。泰勒：特朗普总统曾暗示过这一点。我们看到伊朗在约旦和阿联酋针对美军目标采取行动。接下来会怎样，我们还得看。报告非常明确地表明，美国正在针对霍尔木兹海峡周边的目标采取行动，可能会打击火箭发射器。美方称这些无人机是由付费人员操作的，美方表示已清除海峡内的无人机——在霍尔木兹海峡这条红线问题上，美国明确表示将...
WILL GO AFTER ANY ATTEMPTS BY IRANIAN OFFICIALS TO REMIND THE STRAIGHT BECAUSE IT ALL COMES BACK TO ENSURING COMMERCIAL SHIPPING. KAILEY: TYLER KENDALL HERE WITH US IN OUR WASHINGTON DC STUDIO. BACK IN WASHINGTON AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS IS REPUBLICAN CONGRESSMAN MARLIN STUTZMAN REPRESENT THE INDIAN'S THIRD DISTRICT TWO JOINS US LIVE FROM CAPITOL HILL. CONGRESS WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO. GREAT TO HAVE YOU ON THE PROGRAM AS ALWAYS.
...将对伊朗官员试图破坏海峡的任何企图进行打击，因为这一切都关乎确保商业航运的安全。凯利：泰勒·肯德尔与我们同在华盛顿特区演播室。至少在接下来的几天里，共和党国会议员马林·施图茨曼将在华盛顿。他代表印第安纳州第三选区，现在从国会山与我们连线。欢迎回到彭博电视和广播节目。很高兴再次邀请你参加我们的节目。
IF WE COULD BEGIN WITH THESE RESUMED HOSTILITIES BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN. DO YOU HAVE ANY EXPECTATION THAT THIS WILL BE OVER BY THE TIME VOTERS GO TO THE POLLS IN NOVEMBER? ARE YOU OPERATING UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THIS WILL STILL BE AN ACTIVE CONFLICT AT LEAST IN SOME FORM FOR THE MIDTERMS?
如果我们能从美国和伊朗之间恢复的敌对行动开始谈起。你是否预期到在11月选民投票时，这场冲突就会结束？你是否假设至少在中期选举期间，这仍将以某种形式成为一场活跃冲突？
GREAT TO SEE YOU BOTH. I SUSPECT THE IRANIAN REGIME IS GOING TO TRY TO DRAG THIS OUT AS LONG AS IT POSSIBLY CAN. I THINK WHAT WE SEE IS THERE IS SHIPPING MOVING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WHICH IS POSITIVE, BUT AT THE SAME TIME STILL A DANGEROUS AREA. THE IRGC WILL CONTINUE TO TRY TO DISRUPT ANY CHANCE THEY GET TO TRYING DRAG THIS OUT TO HOPEFULLY DISRUPT OUR ELECTIONS HERE IN NOVEMBER. BUT ALSO WHAT'S INTERESTING IS THEY HAVE A LITTLE I THINK THEY PROBABLY HAVE A LITTLE BREATH OF FRESH AIR NOW THAT PUTIN HAS COME OUT AND SAID HE WILL STAND WITH IRAN WHICH I THINK IN THE LONG RUN DOESN'T MAKE THINGS THAT MUCH MORE COMPLICATED BECAUSE WE ALREADY HAVE A CONFLICT WITH RUSSIA AND UKRAINE AND WITH THE SANCTIONS BILL IN CONGRESS THAT IS ABOUT TO BE VOTED ON I THINK THAT IS PROBABLY WHAT PUTIN IS THINKING MAYBE SOMEHOW CAN SCARE SOME FOLKS IT MAY BE THIS BECOMES A BROADER CONFLICT.
很高兴见到你们两位。我怀疑伊朗政权会尽其所能拖延局势。我认为我们看到的情况是，有船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，这是积极的一面，但与此同时，该地区仍然危险。伊斯兰革命卫队将继续试图利用任何机会制造混乱，试图拖延局势，希望以此干扰我们11月的选举。但同样有趣的是，我认为他们现在可能获得了一些喘息之机，因为普京已经表态他将支持伊朗。我认为从长远来看，这并不会使事情变得过于复杂，因为我们已经在与俄罗斯和乌克兰的冲突中，而且国会即将表决制裁法案。我想这可能是普京的想法，也许他能以某种方式吓阻一些人。这可能演变为一场更广泛的冲突。
IN THE LONG RUN WE ARE GOING TO WIN AND PRESIDENT TRUMP IS DOING THE RIGHT THING BY SQUEEZING THEM NOT ONLY ECONOMICALLY BE USING THE MILITARY. JOE: THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF REPORTING ON THIS THAT IT IS ON ICE AND D.O.A. IN THE HOUSE. WILL WE SEE A VOTE DO YOU THINK BEFORE YOU HEAD BACK HOME? REP. STUTZMAN: I DON'T KNOW. IT WILL BE AN INTERESTING WEEK. THIS ER THIS AFTERNOON THE CONTINUING RESOLUTION FOR THE BUDGET I THINK THAT WILL PASS.
从长远来看，我们将取得胜利，特朗普总统通过施压（不仅在经济上，而且动用军事手段）来对付他们，这是正确的做法。乔：关于此事有很多报道说它被搁置了，在众议院已经死掉了。在你回家之前，你认为我们会看到投票吗？斯塔茨曼众议员：我不知道。这将是一个有趣的星期。嗯，今天下午预算的持续决议案我认为将会通过。
I WOULD LIKE TO VOTE FOR IT. I KNOW THERE ARE COLLEAGUES THAT WOULD LIKE TO. THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH THE SANCTIONS WITH RUSSIA BUT A PASS WITH A STRONG VOTE OUT OF THE SENATE. I THINK YOU WOULD SEE A STRONG MESSAGE IF WE DID PASS IT OUT OF THE HOUSE BUT WE ARE TAKING THIS VERY SERIOUSLY. KAILEY: ON THE CONTINUING RESOLUTION, THIS OBVIOUSLY WOULD FUND THE GOVERNMENT THROUGH DECEMBER 11TH. IN THE LAME-DUCK SESSION ASSUMING THIS PASSES TODAY I IMAGINE THAT IS YOUR ASSUMPTION THAT THE VOTES ARE THERE TO MAKE SURE THE LIGHTS DON'T TURN OFF THE END OF THE FISCAL YEAR.
我希望投赞成票。我知道有些同事也想这么做。虽然对俄罗斯制裁存在一些担忧，但参议院会以高票通过。我认为如果我们能在众议院以高票通过，将发出一个强有力的信号，但我们对此非常慎重。凯利：关于持续决议案，这显然将使政府资金延续至12月11日。在跛脚鸭会期，假设今天获得通过，我想象你的假设是票数足以确保财政年度结束时不会让政府停摆。
CAN WE EXPECT REGULAR APPROPRIATION BILLS WILL COME OUT OF THIS CONGRESS OR WILL WE
我们可以指望本届国会推出常规拨款法案，还是我们
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更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力