希音港股首日灰市跌17% 估值较峰值缩水70%
Shein Slumps in Long-Awaited Hong Kong Debut | The China Show | 9/1/2026
希音作为头部电商完成港股上市是标志性事件，首日表现及估值重估直接反映市场对其盈利能力的定价逻辑，建议关注后续流动性与机构持仓变化。
GOOD MORNING. IT’S 9:00 A.M. IN SHANGHAI, SHENZHEN. I’M DAVID INGLES LIVE.
早上好。现在是上海、深圳时间上午9点。我是大卫·英格尔斯，现场直播。
I’M YVONNE MAN. THE TOP STORIES, SHEIN SHARES SET TO DAY BU IN HONG KONG. AND MORE BETS BEYOND A.I. THE FAST FASHION RETAILER SHARES DOWN 17 FRONT IN GRAY MARKET TRADING. ASIAN STOCKS UNDER PRESSURE AS RENEWED CLASHES IN THE MIDDLE EAST, FUELLING CORNS OVER INFLATION. AND WE ARE WATCHING MEDIA TECH SHARES OF NVIDIA ARE WATCHING AN INVESTMENT IN THE CHIP MAKER. WHY IT’S NOT A CASE OF CIRCULAR A.I. FINDING. AND WE HAVE NEWS UNDER WAY.
我是伊冯娜·曼。头条新闻：希音（SHEIN）股份将在香港上市首日交易；以及人工智能之外的更多赌注。这家快时尚零售商的股份在灰色市场交易中下跌了17%。亚洲股市承压，因为中东局势重新紧张，加剧了对通胀的担忧。我们关注媒体科技股，特别是英伟达（NVIDIA），我们正在观察对这家芯片制造商的投资。为什么这不是一个循环的人工智能发现案例？我们还有正在进行的新闻。
WE WILL TALK WITH HENRY HE TO TALK ABOUT LISTINGS IN HONG KONG. AND WE ARE JOINED BY EXECUTIVES FROM THE AVM A.I. LAB MINI MAX AND TAIWAN’S GLOBAL GAINERS.
我们将与亨利·何（Henry He）交谈，讨论在香港的上市情况。我们还邀请了来自AVM AI实验室、MiniMax和台湾Global Gainers的高管加入。
IT IS A BUSY DAY. WE HAVE A TEAM ON THE SHOW HERE WITH "THE CHINA SHOW." THE HONG KONG STOCK FOR SHEIN’S TRADING DEBUT. DAVE, YOU WILL BE AT THE ASIA LEADERS CONFERENCE. AND THERE IS A LOT TO TALK ABOUT, WITH THE MASSIVE IPO PIPELINE. AND CLOSER TO 5% RIGHT HERE NOW. CERTAINLY A LOT OF DISCUSSIONS ON WHAT IT CAN MEAN MOVING FORWARD TOO.
今天很忙。我们的团队在这里参加《中国秀》节目。希音在香港股市的交易首秀。戴夫，你将在亚洲领袖会议上。有很多话题可以讨论，包括庞大的IPO管道。目前这里已经接近5%。当然，也有很多关于这对未来意味着什么的讨论。
YEAH, AND GOLDMAN, WITH THE DALLAS FED. REALLY ONE OF THE TOPICS WE TALKED ABOUT. RATES ARE GOING TO REMAIN HIGH. THERE IS OF COURSE AN INFLATION ISSUE RIGHT NOW, THE FED NEEDS TO CONTEND WITH. WE STILL HAVE TWO MAJOR DATA POINTS BETWEEN TODAY -- LET’S CALL IT KEVIN WARSH CEASE FED. YOU HAVE THE FED’S DECISION, AND HE DOES SEE IF THAT DOES COME IN, AND THE STICKIER SIDE OF THINGS. AND SEPARATELY, THE STRUCTURAL ISSUE ON THE FUNDAMENTAL U.S.
是的，高盛与达拉斯联储也是我们要讨论的话题之一。利率将保持高位。当然，现在有一个通胀问题需要美联储应对。我们今天还有两个主要数据点——让我们称之为凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）暂停美联储。你有美联储的决定，他会看到如果那确实发生，以及更粘性的方面。另外，美国基本面也存在结构性问题。
ECONOMY. KEEPING THE U.S. TO THE OUTSIDE AS WELL. AND WHAT HE MENTIONED, THEY ARE TWO SEPARATE ISSUES, AND SOMETHING THAT MARKETS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER. AND ABOUT 35, 35 MINUTES FROM NOW, AS WE GO IN THE SHEIN IP, WHICH YOU WILL TALK ABOUT. GOLDMAN WAS A JOINT SPONSOR OF THE LIST, AND KEVIN SNEADER, HEADS THE ASIA AND JAPAN BUSINESS, WILL BE HERE. AND THE FED IS ON A FUND-RAISING PERSPECTIVE. GLOBAL BANKING AND MARKETS, WE WILL GET A PULSE CHECK ON WHAT IT MEANS, AND MINI MAX, WE WILL POINT OUT.
经济。也将美国置于外部。他提到的，这是两个独立的问题，市场需要考虑这一点。大约35分钟后，也就是35分钟之后，我们将进入希音IPO环节，你会对此进行讨论。高盛是该列表的共同赞助商，凯文·斯尼德（Kevin Sneader）负责亚洲和日本业务，他将出席。从融资角度来看，美联储正在进行全球银行和市场活动，我们将了解这意味着什么，并指出MiniMax的情况。
YOU WILL GET TO THE STORY IN A MOMENT. WE WILL TRY TO FIGURE OUT WHEN YUN YEYI JOINS US. YON?
你很快就会听到这个故事。我们将试图弄清楚云叶仪何时加入我们。云？
YEAH, LET’S TALK ABOUT MARKETS NOW. THE IRAN TENSIONS ARE LIFTING OIL PRICES AND LIFTING YIELDS ACROSS THE TREASURY CURVE, ADDING TENSION TO STOCKS NOW. WE ARE SEEING MODEST GAMES WHEN IT COMES TO EQUITY. AND YOU ARE SEEING THE 159 LEVELS FOR THE DOLLAR YEN. WE’RE GETTING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE 160 HERE. YOU HAVE LIKES OF SCOTT BESSETTE TELLING -- NHK REPORTING, THE DOJ BETTER DO SOMETHING. WE ARE SEEING A RATE HIKE IN SEPTEMBER.
是的，我们现在来谈谈市场。伊朗紧张局势推高了油价，并推高了整个国债收益率曲线，给股市增添了紧张气氛。我们在股票方面看到的是温和的游戏。你看到的是美元兑日元的159水平。我们非常接近这里的160。你有斯科特·贝塞特（Scott Bessette）喜欢说——NHK报道，司法部最好做点什么。我们看到9月份加息。
YOU TALK ABOUT WHAT IS GOING ON. THE BOND DYNAMICS. IT’S NOT JUST THE LONG END WHEN YOU ARE MOVING NOW. THE U.S. TEN-YEAR YIELD AT 19-MONTH HIGHS. WE ARE CLOSE TO THE 4.77, THE FIVE-YEAR YIELD, AND YOU HAVE A 30-YEAR AT THE 526 LEVEL. IT CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY OF DYNAMICS, AND THINGS HAVE SHATTERED BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN, THE STRAIT OF HORRMUZ, THAT HAS LIFTED THE VEGS HERE. AND 2.98 FOR THE JAPANESE YEN. EQUITIES, WE ARE CLOSELY HIGHER.
你们在谈论正在发生的事情。债券动态。现在你移动时，不仅仅是长期端。美国十年期收益率处于19个月高位。我们接近4.77%，五年期收益率，而30年期在526水平。这仍然是动态的故事，美国和伊朗之间的事情已经破裂，霍尔木兹海峡，这抬高了VEGS。日元为2.98。股票，我们开盘后接近10%的涨幅。
AND CLOSE TO 10% GAINS AT THE OPEN AFTER THEY ANNOUNCED THE BIG INVESTMENT OF 3.5 MILLION BRS THROUGH THE BOND MARKET HERE. WE ARE GOING TO HEAR MORE FROM THE TECH FROM NVIDIA. THEY ARE JUST BUILDING THEIR ECOSYSTEM, CONGRESS TO THEM. BUT THIS IS THE LARGEST INVESTMENT ME WITH SEEN FROM NVIDIA OUTSIDE OF THE U.S. AND THE STORY, .9 OF 1%, AND THE JAPAN STORY IS A LITTLE ON THE BOOK FOOT HERE TODAY. FUTURES LOOKING LIKE THAT IN CHINA.
在他们宣布通过这里的债券市场进行3.5亿BRS的大额投资后，开盘后接近10%的涨幅。我们将听到更多关于英伟达的技术信息。他们正在构建他们的生态系统，国会支持他们。但这是英伟达在美国以外看到的最大投资，故事是0.9%，日本的故事今天在这里有点书呆子气。期货在中国看起来像那样。
WE TALKED AND SHEIN. THIS COULD BE ONE TO WATCH HERE. THE GRAY MARKET IS NOT LOOKING TOO PRETTY OWN WHAT IT MEANS WHEN IT COMES TO THE RETAIL E-COMMERCE SIDE OF THINGS. GIVEN THE FACT IT HAS BEEN OVERSHADOWED BY A.I. GROWTH. AND FUTURES TO THE UPSET. AND SHANGHAI REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL. WE WILL GO IN EARNINGS AS WELL. GIVEN THE PRICE WARS IN THE A.I. SPACE. MORE TO UNPACK THERE. FAST PASSION RETAILER SHEIN, THE SHARES HAVE SAID TO HAVE SLIPPED UP TO 17% IN GRAY MARKET TRADING.
我们谈到了SHEIN。这可能是这里需要关注的一个。灰色市场看起来不太漂亮，这意味着零售电子商务方面。鉴于它被AI增长所掩盖的事实。期货上涨。上海也保持高位。我们将进入盈利。鉴于AI领域的价格战。还有更多需要解包。快时尚零售商SHEIN，据称其在灰色市场交易中已下跌高达17%。
THAT IS ACCORDING TO PLATFORM -- TO A PLATFORM OR RATED BY KGI SECURES. LET’S BRING IN WINNIE HSU JOINING US NOW. WHAT COULD BE HAPPENING HERE?
根据KGI Securities评级平台的数据。让我们邀请Winnie Hsu加入我们。这里可能发生什么？
GOOD MORNING, YVONNE. THERE IS SO MUCH EXCITE HERE AT THE HONG KONG STOCK EXCHANGE. WE HAVE SHEIN LISTING TODAY, AND THAT IS ON THIS SIDE. AND WE CAN SEE THERE ARE LOTS OF MEMBERS COMING THROUGH ALREADY, WEARING THEIR WHITE T-SHIRT THAT S SAYS SHEIN. LOTS OF EXCITEMENT THERE. AND THE OTHER SIDE OF ME, WE HAVE ANOTHER GONG, ANOTHER LISTING FOR A ROBOTICS LISTING, ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGIES. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW AN E-COMMERCE AND INTERNET COMPANY IS GOING TO COMPETE FOR THE ATTENTION WITH A ROBOTICS COMPANY.
早上好，Yvonne。香港证券交易所充满了兴奋。我们今天有SHEIN上市，就在这个侧面。我们可以看到很多成员已经到来，穿着印有SHEIN字样的白色T恤。那里有很多兴奋。我的另一侧，我们有另一个钟声，另一个机器人技术上市的钟声。看看一家电子商务和互联网公司如何与一家机器人公司争夺注意力将会很有趣。
AND SHEIN ITSELF, IT HAS BEEN SUCH A LONG JOURNEY AFTER IT REALLY TRIED TO LIST IN NEW YORK AND LONDON, AND FINALLY, THIS IS THE DAY FOR THE HONG KONG DEBUT. WELL, WE ARE SEEING THAT -- IT’S GOING TO BE A MILESTONE FOR THE COMPANY. ALTHOUGH, IT’S COMING AT A GREAT COST. THE RATE IS .7 BILLION, AND TAKING THE VALUATION TO ABOUT $26 BILLION, WHICH IS JUST A FRACTION. AND IN FACT, 70% LOWER THAN DURING ITS HEYDAY WHERE IT HAD BEEN VALUED ABOUT 00 BILLION.
SHEIN本身，在它真正尝试在纽约和伦敦上市后，这是一段漫长的旅程，终于，今天是它在香港的首次亮相。我们看到——这将是公司的一个里程碑。尽管，它以巨大的代价到来。利率为0.7亿，估值约为260亿美元，这只是很小的一部分。事实上，比其鼎盛时期低了70%，当时它的估值约为000亿美元。
SO THERE IS A LOT OF CHALLENGES FACING THE COMPANY. AND AS YOU MENTIONED, THE SENTIMENT RIGHT NOW IS SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF A REACTION. WHEN THE RETAIL PORTION IS 5.6 TIMES ALREADY SUBSCRIBED.
因此，公司面临着诸多挑战。正如你提到的，目前的市场情绪显示出一定的反应。当零售部分的认购倍数已经达到5.6倍时。
YEAH, I MEAN, YOU SAID IT. WHAT YOU’RE SEEING ON THE STAGE IS THEY’RE COMPETING AGAINST THE A.I. SORT OF APPLICATION, THE INDUSTRIAL SIDE OFFER THINGS. ROBOTICS SEEM TO BE TAKING THE SPOTLIGHT IN THE IPO MARKET. BUT TALK ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTALS OF SHEIN HERE. HOW IS THE COMPANY’S REVENUE? HOW IS IT SHAPING UP RIGHT NOW?
是的，我的意思是，你说得对。你在舞台上看到的是，它们正在与人工智能类应用竞争，工业领域提供相关服务。机器人技术似乎在IPO市场中占据了焦点。但让我们谈谈SHEIN的基本面。公司的收入情况如何？目前的表现怎样？
YEAH, EXACTLY. SO THERE ARE DIFFERENT FOLDS IN WHEN IT COMES TO ITS EARNINGS. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE REVENUE SIDE OF THINGS, IT IS SHOWING A BIT OF A SLOWDOWN. BUT ACTUALLY, NUMBERS AREN’T REALLY BAD HERE. YOU LOOK AT THE REVENUE LAST YEAR AT $46 BILLION, WHICH IS ACTUALLY MAKING IT ONE OF THE TOP FIVE COMPANIES, GLOBALLY WHEN IT COMES TO SALES. BUT THE PROBLEM IS REALLY MORE ABOUT THE PROFITABILITITY SIDE OF THINGS.
是的，确实如此。在盈利方面有不同的维度。当你查看收入端时，它显示出一定的放缓迹象。但实际上，这里的数字并不差。你看去年的收入为460亿美元，这实际上使其成为全球销售额前五大的公司之一。但问题更多地出在盈利能力方面。
PROFITS, WE SAW THE COMPANY LOST $99 MILLION IN THE FIRST QUARTER THIS YEAR, VERSUS $400 MILLION OF GAINS LAST YEAR. SO THAT IS QUITE A SHARP CONTRAST WE ARE SEEING. SO THE QUESTION IS, IF THE COMPANY WILL BE ABLE TO RAISE ITS PROFITABILITY, AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE PE SIDE OF THINGS, BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATING THE COMPANY COULD BE TRADING AT 15 TIMES FORWARD EARNINGS, AND THAT IS ACTUALLY DOUBLING WHAT WE HAVE, THE PARENT COMPANY OF TEMU.
利润方面，我们看到该公司今年第一季度亏损9900万美元，而去年则获利4亿美元。因此，我们看到了非常鲜明的对比。那么问题来了，公司能否提高其盈利能力？当你查看市盈率（PE）方面时，彭博情报（Bloomberg Intelligence）估计该公司的交易价格可能相当于未来收益的15倍，这实际上是TEMU母公司当前市盈率的翻倍。
SO NOT EXACTLY CHEAP THERE. THOUGH, IT IS CHEAPER THAN THE COMPETITORS, ZARA, H&M. IT HAS TO COMPETE WITH COMPANIES THAT HAVE A LONG TRACK RECORD.
所以并不完全便宜。不过，它比竞争对手Zara和H&M更便宜。它必须与拥有长期业绩记录的公司竞争。
MARKETS WILL OPEN UP, JUST ABOUT 20 MINUTES AWAY FOR THE DEBUT FROM SHOOERN SHEIN THERE. AND A.I. FIRST REVENUES LOST ESTIMATES, AND THE LOSS PERSISTED, HIGHLIGHTING THE MOUNTING COST OF FIGHTING THE LIKES OF MOON SHOT AND ALIBABA TO STAY IN THE FRONT OF A.I. MAKING THE MARK THERE, APRIL. RUN US THROUGH THE DETAILS.
市场即将开放，距离ShoeRN SHEIN的首秀仅剩约20分钟。AI首笔收入低于预期，且亏损持续，凸显了在与Moonshot和阿里巴巴等公司争夺AI市场领先地位过程中不断攀升的成本。4月，请为我们梳理一下细节。
YEAH, THIS IS A COMPANY THAT IS IN FOCUS, IN THE SPOTLIGHT, GIVEN IT WAS BEHIND THE ALPHA A.I. MODEL. AND WE SEE THE MARKET VALUE SURGING, THE VALUE 800%, AND BACK FROM THE PIECE THAT WE SAW IN THE MONTH OF JUNE. NO TERMS OF EARNINGS SCORECARD, YES, WE DID SEE THE LOSSES NARROWING, BUT IN TERMS OF REVENUE, IT CLIMBED FIVE FOLD TO 40 MILLION, IT MISSED ESTIMATED BY 30%. THE COST OF COMPETITION REALLY WHEN IT GOES TO HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH THE SMALLER LABS, WITH MOON SHOT, ALI BBABA, WE KNOW THE CHINESE FIRMS HAVE BEEN CUTTING PRICES WHEN IT COMES TO A.I.
是的，鉴于该公司是Alpha AI模型背后的推手，它正处于焦点和聚光灯之下。我们看到其市值飙升，价值增长800%，回到了我们在6月份看到的情况。在盈利成绩单方面，是的，我们确实看到亏损收窄，但在收入方面，它增长了五倍至4000万美元，但未达到预期的30%。当涉及到与小实验室如Moonshot、阿里巴巴进行正面竞争时，成本确实很高，我们知道中国公司在AI方面一直在降价。
TO CLINCH MARKET SHARES. THERE IS NO EXCEPTION. OVERALL, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE EARNINGS SCORECARD IS RAISING DOUBT OF THE EXTENT THAT IT CAN TURN THE TECHNICAL CAPABILITIES INTO COMMERCIAL SUCCESS. AND OUR COLLEAGUES ON THE BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE TEAM PUT IT NICELY, THEY EXPECT THE LOSSES TO WIDEN BECAUSE OF THE FIRST HALF MISS IN REVENUES. BUT ALSO BECAUSE THE FIRM IS PIVOTING TO THE FOCUS TOWARDS THE CLOUD-BASED TOKEN SUPPLY, WHICH IS SEEN AS A UTILITY, A SERVICE OF SORTS.
为了巩固市场份额。这是没有例外的。总体而言，盈利记分牌似乎正在引发对其将技术能力转化为商业成功程度的怀疑。彭博情报团队的同事对此表述得很恰当，他们预计由于上半年收入未达预期，亏损将会扩大。此外，公司正转向专注于基于云的代币供应，这被视为一种实用工具、某种服务。
AND A ROLE THAT DOES DAMP EN THE OUTLOOK A BIT.
而这一角色在一定程度上抑制了前景。
IT SEEMS LIKE THE MEMORY CRUNCH IS STARTING TO TAKE A
内存紧张似乎开始产生影响
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力