Anthropic拟9月IPO引发市场拥挤担忧，Shein港股上市前股价大跌

Still thinking September October. But if you just understand how IPO's work for the company to price and debut in September, it needs to publicly be on file by the Tuesday after Labor Day. So that's like kind of a best case scenario. If we believe our understanding when we talk to bankers and people around this deal to be true. They still haven't finalized their revolving credit facility. That's a big step, bringing the other banks outside of the big four that we've broken a lot of news around under the tent is a big step.

And they also have to have an analyst day so the analysts can model out what they're expecting with anthropic. When you know you're a Goldman Sachs, if you call up your sales desk and say, hey, I want to talk to the analyst, he has to have a model to be able to share. So if you put all of those kind of pieces into formation, you look at and say, the fastest probably is Thursday or Friday. But in reality, they've been kind of dragging their heels with piecing together this revolving credit facility.

But once that takes place, it should move pretty darn quickly. Is is there going to be a crowding out effect for other deals, do you think? I mean, the question? I mean, it's going to take all the oxygen and including a lot of the dollars out of the marketplace. Huh? How's the street kind of thinking about this? Because presumably after Labor Day, there's a lot of companies will want to go public. Yeah, no. And we've already seen a few that have flipped publicly.

So smaller, lesser known deals, a Greco cobalt power. Obviously they're both private equity. They're both kind of playing the eye angle. But the big thing is, if you're trying to schedule a meeting with along only, or if you're trying to schedule a meeting with the sovereign wealth fund, these aren't huge teams. They're not the millennium IPO pods that are really playing all of these deals. So I've talked to some sponsors, I've talked to some bankers.

And that's kind of been consternation when you look at space, which we saw back in June. We crunched the numbers, the 14 notable deals to go public in the month before space. So kind of racing to hit that pre space. Window weighted average loss is almost 10% from the offer price. You're supposed to buy IPOs to make money not lose money. So when you look at the calendar we have seen companies flip public. We expect some to flip public this week.

That should open the opportunity to beat anthropic out the door. But you don't want to be on the road. At the same time. You don't want to be calling Wellington, asking for them to take time to talk to your company if Dario is trying to make a visit. Yeah. Um, don't be like, uh, we'll get back to you. Exactly. Um, let's talk about another company, which, um, a couple years ago was a big, big deal for young people. And, um, kind of like fast fashion.

Uh, she had global holdings. The shares fell as much as 14% in Hong Kong. Framework or trading this before the stock makes its debut in Hong Kong. Right. It will make its debut tomorrow. And again, this is a company that sold almost $2 billion worth of shares in the IPO market. That's 26 billion you mentioned just a few years ago, 2022. They raise a private round around $100 billion. So that is a huge drop off when you talk to investors who met with the company.

The critique is I'm paying a similar multiple for a Zara or an H&M that I'm paying for a company that hasn't seen growth, that has a lot of political uncertainty and a lot of headwinds. They tried there were reports that they wanted to go public in the US, then London. Now they're listing in Hong Kong. There's just so much uncertainty around the company. And again, it'll be interesting to see when we see that formal trading.

But we've been really using over the last few weeks and months this grey market to better inform what's going to happen actually on exchange. And even if you just go 1 to 1 or even half, 2 to 1, you're still saying this is going to be something that trades down pretty sharply. So just real quick, 30s are we expecting a flood of deals to be filed or hit the road in the next several weeks? Definitely. We expect, uh, potentially a couple this week.

And then I think after Labor Day, you'll see people back in the seats, you'll see filings being flipped public. You'll see companies starting those formal roadshows. And we should expect a pretty darn packed September into October. Again, though, we do have a live September meeting for the fed. So that has a bit of, uh, concern for some of these bankers. And then obviously all eyes will shortly after, uh, pivot to the election and the midterms and what that does or doesn't mean for risk.