美联储官员讲话强化加息预期，油价因地缘冲突飙升
Investors Wary After Warsh Speech Fuels Rate-Hike Bets
I think that the market had some expectations of him, especially after the earlier speeches that were that didn't let's just say they didn't hit the way that I think that they were intended to. And I think that he did a good job of redefining, here's my job, here's what I want to do. Here's what's here. It's what I think is wrong. Here's the parameters that I'm looking at. But I don't think that you're going to get the same kind of consistent talk and handholding that we've had since arguably the financial crisis.
我认为市场对他抱有一些预期，尤其是在他此前的几次讲话没有——我们不妨这么说吧——达到我认为的预期效果之后。我认为他很好地重新定义了局面：这是我的职责，我想做什么，现状如何，我认为哪里出了问题，我正在关注哪些参数。但我不认为你会得到自金融危机以来那种一致性的言论和细致的引导。
Yeah, he made a big point of saying you don't call this forward guidance, but he did give a trail map so, so to speak, which sounded a lot like forward guidance. And it feels like the markets all reacted as if it were forward guidance. Do you think he's like weaning us off of it. You know it's one of those things where markets are always going to look for information. They're always trying to parse out what's going to happen.
是的，他强调说这不叫前瞻性指引（forward guidance），但他确实给出了一张路线图，可以说听起来很像前瞻性指引。而且市场似乎都将其作为前瞻性指引来反应。你认为他是在让我们逐渐摆脱对它的依赖吗？你知道的，市场总是会寻找信息，总是试图解析未来会发生什么。
Right. Remember there was a briefcase indicator, there was a sandwich indicator. There were kind of things. You were a gray tie back and back in the day. There were a lot of other things that people relied on besides speeches. And I think that, you know, there is there was some concern post the first two that there was not an attack on inflation. And I think that he is trying very hard to make that case. Adding a couple more variables makes it possible, I think, to say, you know, let's see what happens with the data that's coming right now.
没错。还记得有公文包指标、三明治指标之类的东西。那时候你戴灰领带，人们除了讲话之外还依赖很多其他信号。我认为，在前两次讲话之后，有些人担心他没有对通胀采取攻击姿态。我认为他正在非常努力地阐明这一点。增加几个变量后，我认为我们可以说，让我们看看目前公布的数据会怎样。
August has been traditionally kind of up and down. And in fact, I think the last time there was a big fed panic move was because of data that came in in August. And then it sort of later was so bad as we got through September and October. So we'll see what happens. I think that if you don't see a huge change in the data or if it's mildly benign, it gives them room to wait a little bit longer. But we'll see. I don't know if they want to wait.
八月历来起伏不定。事实上，我认为上一次美联储因数据而大幅恐慌性行动，就是因为八月公布的数据。随后九月和十月情况变得相当糟糕。所以我们将拭目以待。我认为，如果你没有看到数据的巨大变化，或者数据温和向好，这会给他们留出更多等待的时间。但我们拭目以待。我不知道他们是否真的想等待。
I know that there are a couple who don't, but there's still nine that do. So let's see. Let's see how that goes. Earnings have been better than good. Better than excellent quite frankly sticking on the second quarter here. Is that enough to support this market. Do you think here because this feels like a man the multiples market doesn't feel that expensive. Well it certainly has been. Right. So so absent the earnings growth and absent the fact that that's been fantastic, I think you would have much more trouble digesting all of the other things that are going on, including what's going on right now with oil prices.
我知道有少数人不这么认为，但仍有九家是这样。所以让我们看看情况如何。财报表现一直优于良好。坦率地说，就第二季度而言，甚至优于优秀。这足以支撑当前市场吗？你认为呢？因为感觉这是一个由估值倍数驱动的市场，并不显得昂贵。当然，它确实曾经如此。因此，如果没有盈利增长，也没有此前堪称完美的表现，我认为你将更难消化正在发生的其他事情，包括目前油价的情况。
But I think that what came out last week, and I think what came out of Nvidia was we see a strong, um, environment going forward, and we don't see that backing down the way that people have been concerned. Like we're already worrying about 2027, right. Because it's September about to be. And that's where we start to shift into what are next year's earnings. So I think that that was a good forward look. And I think that if you see things continuing and you're seeing good earnings on not just the technology front but on other fronts as well, and you're seeing pretty strong cash flow for the technology companies.
但我认为上周发布的内容，以及英伟达（Nvidia）释放出的信号是：我们看到未来环境强劲，并未出现人们所担忧的衰退迹象。比如我们已经开始担心2027年的情况了，对吧？因为九月即将到来，而那时我们将开始关注明年的盈利预期。所以我认为这是一个良好的前瞻性展望。而且我认为，如果你看到情况持续向好，不仅科技领域，其他领域也展现出强劲的盈利，并且科技公司拥有相当强劲的自由现金流。
They're spending it for a lot of other companies. They're using it in different ways. So I I think that that looks pretty benign at the moment. And it has to be given where valuations are. I think you mentioned oil prices. And obviously this morning we were saying I just saw them today. They're up big. I know I mean it's it's shocking. And they've been going up for a while. Uh I'm wondering how you mentioned that. But how are you factoring that in an escalating tensions and as well.
这些资金被用于许多其他公司。它们以不同的方式使用。因此，我认为目前看来相当温和。考虑到当前的估值水平，必须如此。你提到了油价。显然今天早上我们还在讨论，我今天刚看到数据，涨幅很大。我知道，我的意思是，这令人震惊。而且油价已经上涨了一段时间。我好奇你为什么提到这一点。但在局势升级的背景下，你是如何将这一因素纳入考量的？
So because the tensions have escalated and escalated a number of times, you've had very much of a roller coaster for the oil prices. It hasn't been a straight line higher. It's been higher and then lower and then higher. I think that this is a consequence of obviously what happened over the weekend and the concern that we are now going to be back in hostilities situation. I don't know that this was I don't know that that's going to happen.
由于紧张局势多次升级，油价经历了一波三折的过山车行情。并非直线上升，而是高高低低反复波动。我认为这是周末发生事件的后果，以及我们现在可能重新陷入敌对状态的担忧。我不确定这是否会发生，我也不确定那是否会成真。
I don't think anybody knows yet. We're not going to get we're not going to hear what the plan is. We're just going to see what happens. And the fact that there was kinetic action makes people much more concerned. And that's where you're seeing the rise in oil prices this morning. If that doesn't repeat, or if we get a week where things calm down, I think you see oil prices come down again. There was also some discussion over the weekend of how much oil got through, how much Saudi Arabian crude got through.
我认为目前还没有人知道。我们不会听到计划是什么，我们只会看到事态如何发展。事实上，发生了动能行动（kinetic action），这让人们更加担忧。这也是今天早上油价上涨的原因。如果这种情况没有重演，或者我们迎来一周的平静期，我认为油价会再次下跌。周末还讨论了有多少石油通过，以及多少沙特阿拉伯原油通过。
You know, it's hard for us to see that from the outside, because a lot of this is going on in the dark without transponders. And so we're working on how that goes. That took the oil price down last time. Let's see what happens going forward. Yeah boy. Just looking. And I hadn't even really paid attention to this morning. But boy crude oil is up 3.8% $3.17 a barrel now at $86.57 a barrel for WTI Brent, $91.18. Uh, so higher oil there.
你知道，从外部很难看清这一点，因为很多活动是在没有应答器（transponders）的情况下秘密进行的。所以我们正在研究情况如何发展。上次这导致油价下跌。让我们看看未来会发生什么。是的，伙计。只是看着。我甚至没有太关注今天早上。但原油价格上涨了3.8%，WTI现为每桶3.17美元，即每桶86.57美元；布伦特原油为每桶91.18美元。嗯，那里的油价更高了。
So that kind of goes back to sir, what do you think the underlying inflation is and how does it impact just corporate earnings in general, do you think? So right now the biggest problem for inflation is probably more for consumers than it is for corporations. Depending on what you do and what sector you're in. Right. Because if transportation costs are a large part of what your what your cost basis is, if you're an airline, this is a problem.
所以这又回到了先生您的问题：您认为基础通胀是什么？它如何影响企业盈利？您觉得呢？所以目前通胀对消费者的影响可能比对企业的更大。取决于您的业务和所在的行业。没错。因为如果运输成本是您成本基础的重要组成部分，如果您是航空公司，这就是一个问题。
If you are in other sectors, it's less of a problem. The transportation issue is going to it has been up and down. I think it's been problematic for consumers because it's mostly food and energy that are taking the brunt of this. Now that's probably going to continue. We've got some issues that are going on with the growing season because of weather. We've got some issues that are going on because of fertilizer. So higher commodity prices are something that is concerning.
如果您处于其他行业，问题就没那么大了。运输问题起伏不定。我认为这对消费者来说是个问题，因为主要是食品和能源承受了大部分冲击。现在这种情况可能会持续下去。由于天气原因，我们的生长季遇到了一些问题。由于化肥问题，我们也遇到了一些麻烦。因此，大宗商品价格高企令人担忧。
The problem is that raising rates doesn't necessarily attack that except by lowering demand. And then that hurts your employment picture. So there's a lot of puts and takes, which is why I think the fed is not necessarily on as much on target to do something in September, because I do think that they see that tension.
问题是，加息并不一定能解决这个问题，除非通过降低需求来实现。而这会损害就业状况。所以有很多利弊权衡，这也是我认为美联储在九月采取行动的可能性不大的原因，因为我确实认为他们看到了这种紧张局势。
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