美以打击伊朗，伊朗反击约旦美军基地
US Strikes Iran, Iran Hits US Bases in Jordan | Horizons Middle East & Africa 8/31/2026
重大地缘事件实际升级叠加货币政策预期突变，直接重塑全球资产定价逻辑与避险情绪，需密切关注原油波动、汇率干预风险及利率衍生品定价变化。
GOOD MORNING. THIS IS HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA. OUR TOP STORIES THIS MORNING. TENSIONS REIGNITE. OIL CLIMBS AS THE U.S. STRIKES IRANIAN ROCKET LAUNCHERS. THE IRGC SAYS IT RETALIATED WITH MISSILES AND DRONE ATTACKS ON U.S. AIR BASES IN JORDAN. IN ASIAN STOCKS SLIDE AFTER KEVIN WARSH'S HAWKISH JACKSON HOLE MESSAGE. THE DOLLAR HOLDS FIRM AS YIELDS PUSH HIGHER. WE WILL SPEAK TO -- AS DID YOU BUY A DEVELOPER FACES SCRUTINY OVER DEBT AND LIQUIDITY.
早上好。这里是地平线中东与非洲频道。今晨头条新闻：紧张局势重燃。美国打击伊朗火箭发射器，油价攀升。伊斯兰革命卫队称，其对驻约旦的美国空军基地发动了导弹和无人机报复袭击。亚洲股市在凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）杰克逊霍尔鹰派言论后下挫。美元持稳，收益率走高。我们将采访——随着开发商面临债务和流动性审查，你买入股票了吗？
HE JOINS US TO DISCUSS MARKET CONDITIONS AND THE OUTLOOK FOR GROWTH. IT HAS GONE 8:00 A.M. ACROSS THE EMIRATES. I AM ABEER IN DUBAI. HAPPY MONDAY. LAST TRADING DAY OF THE MONTH AND YOU ARE SEEING RISK-OFF ACROSS THE EQUITIES SPACE AND ACROSS OIL AS WELL. YOU ARE SEEING S&P FUTURES .4% LOWER. THIS IS KEVIN WARSH. THE MESSAGE ON OR IN JACKSON HOLE THAT WAS SEEN AS SLIGHTLY MORE HAWKISH MARKETS ARE FACTORING IN A POSSIBLE RETURN TO A HIKE IN SEPTEMBER OF COURSE.
他加入我们讨论市场状况及增长前景。阿联酋各地时间已至上午8点。我是位于迪拜的阿比尔。周一快乐。这是本月的最后一个交易日，您看到股市和石油领域均出现避险情绪。标普期货下跌0.4%。这是凯文·沃什。他在杰克逊霍尔发表的被视为略微更鹰派的言论，市场正在定价9月可能加息的可能性。
A BIG DISCUSSION AND MARKETS TODAY AND ON FRIDAY, WE WILL TALK ABOUT THAT ON THE SHOW. LOOKING AT THE YIELDS OVER ON THE 10 YEAR NOTES. THEY ARE STILL QUITE ELEVATED. THEY ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT THEY ENDED THE WEEK WITH, 4.7 1%, NOT DOING MUCH THIS MORNING. ABOUT A BASIS POINT NOR AND A BIG DISCUSSION. BITCOIN IS BELOW $80,000 AND THIS IS AGAIN AFTER THE JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM MEETING. IT HAS NOT FULLY LOST THE MOMENTUM IT STARTED LAST WEEK BUT BELOW THE $80,000 MARK AND BRENT CRUDE PRICES, A BIG STORY IN THE MIDDLE EAST THIS MORNING.
今天和周五是重大讨论日，我们将在节目中就此展开探讨。查看10年期国债收益率，它们仍然相当高企。比周末收盘时的4.71%更高，今晨波动不大，仅约一个基点，这是一个大话题。比特币跌破8万美元，这再次发生在杰克逊霍尔研讨会之后。它尚未完全失去上周开始的势头，但仍低于8万美元关口。布伦特原油价格也是今晨中东地区的一大新闻。
OIL IS RISING 2.2 PERCENT. $90 ON THE BARREL YET AGAIN AFTER THE U.S. SAID IT HIT ME RUN AFTER SAYING IT WAS GOING TO LAUNCH ROCKETS TO MINE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AGAIN PETE ON SUNDAY, IRAN RETALIATED BY STRIKING AIRBASES IN JORDAN SO POSSIBLY BACK TO SQUARE ONE. POSSIBLY NOT. THAT WILL BE A DISCUSSION WE WILL HAVE MOMENTARILY BUT FOR A LOOK AT WHAT ASIAN MARKETS ARE DOING THIS MONDAY MORNING, WE HAVE WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG FOR US.
油价上涨2.2%，每桶90美元。此前美国表示将向霍尔木兹海峡布雷的伊朗发射火箭，随后伊朗周日通过打击约旦的空军基地进行报复，局势可能回到原点。也可能并非如此。这将是我们稍后讨论的话题。让我们看看亚洲市场今晨的表现，我们有驻香港记者许慧琳为我们报道。
WHAT DO YOU HAVE? WINNIE: HAPPY MONDAY. NOT TOO MUCH OF A HAPPY MOVE WHEN IT COMES TO ASIAN MARKETS. WE ARE SEEING ASIA STOCKS DOWN FOR THE FIRST DAY AFTER FOUR DAYS OF GAINS AND AS YOU MENTIONED, THAT IS COMING THROUGH FROM THE HAWKISH TONE FROM FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH. ALSO THESE HIGHER OIL PRICES KIND OF HURTING SENTIMENT IN ASIA AS WELL. WE ARE SEEING TECH STOCKS LEADING DECLINES THAT THEY ARE MORE SENSITIVE TO THE RATES AND WHERE WE ARE SEEING THE TECH HEAVY GAUGE IS KOREA AS WELL AS IN TAIWAN, JAPAN, AND EVEN HONG KONG LOWER BY MORE THAN A PERCENT.
你有什么消息？许慧琳：周一快乐。就亚洲市场而言，并没有太多令人愉快的走势。我们看到亚洲股市在连续四天上涨后首日下跌，正如你所提到的，这是由于美联储主席凯文·沃什的鹰派基调所致。此外，高油价也在一定程度上损害了亚洲的市场情绪。科技股领跌，因为它们对利率更为敏感。我们看到科技股权重的指数在韩国、台湾、日本甚至香港均下跌超过1%。
WHEN IT COMES TO THE END OF THE MONTH AS YOU JUST MENTIONED, WE ARE STILL UP FOR THE BEST MONTH SINCE MAY. ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EARNINGS THAT SHOW THE AI DEMAND WILL REMAIN QUITE SOLID. STILL, IT'S REALLY ABOUT THE MOVES AND WE ARE SEEING JGB -- 10 YEAR AND THIRTY-YEAR ARE HIGHER, TRACKING THOSE MOVES IN THE U.S. TREASURIES BUT WORTH NOTING THAT WE HAVE THE BOND AUCTION COMING THROUGH FOR THE JGB 10 YEAR AS WELL AS 30 YEAR LATER THIS WEEK.
正如你刚才提到的，在月底之际，我们仍处于自五月以来的最佳月份。最新的财报也显示人工智能需求将保持相当强劲。尽管如此，关键还是在于走势，我们看到日本国债——10年期和30年期收益率上升，追踪美国国债的走势，但值得注意的是，本周晚些时候我们将迎来日本国债10年期和30年期的债券拍卖。
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT. WHEN IT COMES TO DOLLAR MOVE, WE SAW A REALLY BIG JUMP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, EASING A LITTLE BIT TODAY IS WHY WE ARE SEEING A BIT OF A STRENGTHENING WHEN IT COMES TO THE ONSHORE YUAN HAVING ITS BEST DAY IN A WAY. THAT IS COMING UP TO THE PMI NUMBERS COMING THROUGH STRONGER THAN EXPECTED THEN AUGUST. IT'S IN THE CONTRACTION ZONE AND THE JAPANESE YEN ALSO STRENGTHENING A LITTLE BIT AFTER HAVING BREACHED THAT 160 LEVEL AGAINST THE DOLLAR HENCE WE ARE SEEING INVESTORS REALLY ON A CLOSER WATCH WHEN IT COMES TO INTERVENTION RISKS.
密切关注这一点。关于美元走势，我们在周五看到了大幅上涨。然而，今天略有回落，这也是为什么离岸人民币出现走强，迎来了近段时间以来表现最好的一天。这与高于预期的8月采购经理人指数（PMI）数据有关。该数据仍处于收缩区间，日元也在再次跌破对美元160关口后小幅走强，因此投资者对干预风险保持高度警惕。
BACK TO YOU. ABEER: YET ANOTHER STORY WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON. THANK YOU. RETURNING TO THE OIL STORY, OIL PRICES ARE CLIMBING AS TENSIONS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN FLARE UP AGAIN. WASHINGTON CARRIED OUT ITS FIRST STRIKES ON IRAN IN MORE THAN A MONTH, TARGETING ROCKET LAUNCHERS IT SAYS WERE PREPARING TO SEND MINES INTO THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. WE ARE JOINED BY OWNER OF BLOOMBERG'S MANAGING EDITOR FOR THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA.
回到演播室。阿比尔：这是我们要关注的另一个故事。谢谢。回到石油话题，随着美国和伊朗之间的紧张局势再次升级，油价攀升。华盛顿在一个多月来首次对伊朗发动打击，目标是其声称正准备向霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷的火箭发射器。我们连线的是彭博社中东和北非地区主编。
A STRIKE AND A RETALIATION. WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? ARE WE BACK TO SQUARE ONE?
一次打击与报复。接下来会发生什么？我们是否回到了原点？
THAT'S A BIG QUESTION. IT'S OBVIOUSLY VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY DEFINITIVELY BUT FROM THE EARLY DAYS WHEN A TRUCE WAS INTRODUCED IN JUNE UNTIL THE END OF JULY TO MANY OBSERVERS, THE EQUILIBRIUM IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BETWEEN IRAN AND THE U.S. WAS ANYTHING BUT STABLE. WE HAVE SEEN SCOTT BESSENT, U.S. TREASURY ANNOUNCED AND ECONOMIC PRESSURE CAMPAIGN TO GAIN CONCESSIONS FROM IRAN BUT OBVIOUSLY, IRAN IS NOW EMBOLDENED BY THE FAILURE OF THE U.S.
这是一个大问题。显然很难给出确切的定论，但从六月引入停火到七月末的早期阶段来看，在许多观察人士眼中，伊朗与美国在霍尔木兹海峡的平衡绝非稳定。我们看到斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent），美国财政部宣布并开展经济施压运动以迫使伊朗做出让步，但显然，由于美国的失败，伊朗现在更加大胆。
AND AN ISRAELI CAMPAIGN. IN THE ABSENCE OF AN ECONOMIC PRESSURE CAMPAIGN THAT CAN DELIVER RESULTS WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE CASE, THE MILITARY OPERATIONS SEEM TO BE THE ONLY TOOL LEFT TO REACH THAT POLITICAL END DESIRED BY THE U.S., WHATEVER THAT MAY BE ALTHOUGH OBVIOUSLY THERE IS VERY LITTLE THEY ARE. WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY OR OVERNIGHT IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, THE U.S. ATTACK AND IRANIAN RETALIATION IS HARDLY SURPRISING.
以及以色列的行动。在经济施压运动似乎无法取得成果的情况下，军事行动似乎是实现美国 desired 政治目标的唯一剩余手段，无论那是什么目标。当然，他们能做的非常有限。昨天或隔夜发生在霍尔木兹海峡的事件，即美国的攻击和伊朗的报复，几乎并不令人惊讶。
IT DOES SHOW I THINK, WHICH IS ALWAYS FROM THE MOVE IN THE OIL MARKET -- OIL PRICES, THE FACT THAT THE RISK OF A RESUMPTION OF A FULL OUT WAR IN THE GULF REMAINS VERY MUCH A REALITY. ABEER: YOU ALSO HAVE THE ECONOMIC PLANS SCOTT BESSENT LAID OUT. IT IS TO SUGGEST WE MIGHT SEE WEEKLY ANNOUNCEMENTS OF SANCTION FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS OR INSTITUTIONS THAT STILL DO BUSINESS WITH IRAN. WE COME BACK TO THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW EFFECTIVE WILL THOSE BE ON THE IRANIAN ECONOMY?
我认为确实如此，这始终源于石油市场的动向——油价，以及海湾地区全面战争恢复的风险仍然是一个非常现实的问题。阿比尔：你还有斯科特·贝森特提出的经济计划。这表明我们可能会看到每周宣布制裁金融机构或仍与伊朗进行业务的机构。我们回到这个问题，即这些措施对伊朗经济究竟会有多大效果？
THE FIRST WEEK, THEY DON'T REALLY DELIVER THE KIND OF HUGE MEANS THAT SCOTT BESSENT SEEMED TO BE INDICATING WHEN HE FELT THE PRESS CONFERENCE NOW. BUT YES, HE DID SAY THERE WILL BE MORE TO COME BUT SO FAR, WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IS NOT RADICALLY DIFFERENT THAN WHAT IRAN HAS BEEN SUBJECTED TO FOR MANY YEARS. YOU CAN ARGUE FOR AS LONG AS 47 YEARS AND YES, ECONOMIC PAIN IN IRAN IS REAL. THERE ARE VISIBLE DIFFERENCES IN LIFE IN IRAN BUT IT'S A COUNTRY THAT'S REALLY FAMILIAR WITH THE KIND OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS SO IT'S DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW EXACTLY THIS KIND OF ECONOMIC PRESSURE WILL DO THE KIND OF CHANGE THE U.S.
在第一周，它们并没有真正带来斯科特·贝森特在新闻发布会上的表态所暗示的那种巨大手段。但是的，他确实表示还会有更多后续措施，但到目前为止，我们所看到的与伊朗多年来所遭受的制裁并没有根本性的不同。你可以争辩说长达47年，是的，伊朗的经济痛苦是真实的。伊朗的生活出现了可见的差异，但这是一个非常熟悉此类经济制裁的国家，因此很难看出这种经济压力究竟能带来什么样的改变，美国
WOULD LIKE TO SEE OR AFFECT THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC.
希望看到或影响伊斯兰共和国。
ARE WE SEEING A RETURN TO THE MINDS ARGUMENT IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ? PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID IT WAS COMPLETELY THE MIND AND IRAN SAYS NOT REALLY THE STRIKES ACCORDING TO CENTRAL COMMAND BECAUSE IRAN IS CONSIDERING LAUNCHING ROCKETS TO MINE IT SO WHAT IS MOVEMENT LOOKING LIKE NOW?
我们是否正在霍尔木兹海峡看到水雷战的回归？特朗普总统称那里完全布有水雷，而伊朗则表示并非如此。根据中央司令部的说法，因为伊朗正考虑发射火箭布雷，那么目前的局势是怎样的？
THE U.S. HAS LONG BEEN ADAMANT THERE ARE NO LONGER MONTHS WHICH HAS BEEN DISPUTED BY IRAN. AUTHORITIES SAID THE MINDS OR LOCATION WERE ONLY KNOWN TO IRGC LEADERS. THEY WILL DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT IT IS SAFE -- IS GOING TO BE THE ISSUERS AND SHIPPERS. IT'S NOT SAFE ENOUGH WHETHER OR NOT THERE ARE ANY MINES LEFT. ABEER: NOT SAFE ENOUGH. YOU WILL BE MONITORING THAT SITUATION FOR US. THANK YOU ALWAYS. MANAGING EDITOR FOR THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA.
美国长期以来一直坚称不再有水雷，这一点遭到伊朗的质疑。当局表示，水雷的位置只有伊朗革命卫队领导层才知道。他们是否会决定是否安全——将由发行商和承运商来决定。无论是否有剩余的水雷，目前都不够安全。阿比尔：不够安全。你将为我们监控这一局势。谢谢。中东和北非地区主编。
STILL AHEAD, THE JACKSON HOLE SPEECH HAS REIGNITED SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE BETS EVEN AS SOME BOND INVESTORS DOUBT THEY WILL FOLLOW THROUGH. THEY JOIN US ON WHETHER MARKETS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE RISK OF ANOTHER HIKE AND THE OPPORTUNITIES HE SEEING ACROSS MARKETS. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. -- HE IS SEEING ACROSS MARKETS. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪
稍后还将播出，杰克逊霍尔演讲重新点燃了9月加息的预期，尽管一些债券投资者怀疑美联储是否会兑现。他们将与我们讨论市场是否低估了再次加息的风险，以及他在各市场中看到的机会。这是彭博社。-- 他在各市场中看到机会。这是彭博社。♪
WE SHOULD NOT INDULGE A REGIME IN WHICH MARKET PARTICIPANTS ARE LOOKING PRIMARILY TO THE FED FOR THE NEXT TRADE. THE FED IS A DECISION-MAKING AGENCY. WE MAKE CHOICES AMID UNCERTAINTY AND THE DATA PROBLEM WHICH WE DRAW ON MUST BE RELEVANT, TEMPORAL RADIUS, ACCURATE, AND AS ACTIONABLE AS POSSIBLE. THE STABILITY OBJECTIVE OF 2% AS MEASURED BY THE PCE PRICE INDEX IS A FIRM, FIXED TARGET. ACHIEVING BOTH SIDES OF OUR MANDATE OVER THE MEDIUM TERM IS NOT AN EITHER OR PROPOSITION.
我们不应纵容一个让市场参与者主要依赖美联储来指引下一步行动的局面。美联储是一个决策机构。我们在不确定性和数据局限中做出选择，所依据的数据必须具有相关性、时效性、准确性，并尽可能具备可操作性。以 PCE 价格指数衡量的 2% 稳定性目标是一个坚定且固定的目标。在中期实现我们双重使命的两方面并非非此即彼的命题。
WE MUST BE CONFIDENT THAT UNDERLYING INFLATION IS MOVING TO OUR OBJECTIVE CLEARLY AND AT SUFFICIENT SPEED. OTHERWISE WE HAVE WORKED. THAT IS OUR JOB, MANDATE, AND CHARGE TO KEEP. ABEER: KEVIN WARSH AT THE JACKSON HOLE ECONOMIC SYMPOSIUM. ASIAN STOCKS ARE SLIDING AFTER FED CHAIRMAN KEVIN WARSH WARNED INFLATION IS NOT SLOWING MEANINGFULLY AND SAID THE FED HAS WORK TO DO IF PRICE PRESSURES PERSIST. TRADERS HAVE LIFTED THE ODDS ABOVE 50%, BOOSTING THE DOLLAR AND
我们必须确信，核心通胀正清晰且足够快地向我们的目标迈进。否则，我们的工作就白费了。保持这一职责、任务和授权是我们的本分。阿比尔：凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上的讲话。美联储主席凯文·沃什警告称，通胀并未实质性放缓，并表示如果价格压力持续，美联储仍有工作要做。交易员已将加息概率推高至 50% 以上，推动美元走强，而
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力