伊朗战争满六个月：霍尔木兹海峡僵局与油价回升

Michel. There's a lot to it. To get to you. I mean, just hearing the president talk about a couple of days, a few weeks. Um, here we are six months later. Is the war any closer to being over? Yeah. Well, it's a it's a tough question to crack in terms of where we are in that timeline, Tim. And in part because we've been asking the same question the entire time from day one, is how long will this take? What does the U.S.C. as the timeline for the war for military operations and then for negotiations?

And and now, uh, also additionally, to get the Strait of Hormuz open, which remains a big, huge challenge, global challenge right now. So we've been at this for a while. And even after many of those clips that you just put up, um, you know, our own Jeff Mason was in the Oval Office and questioned Trump about the timeline. And, you know, somewhere around May June, Trump started to say things like, don't rush me, Jeff.

And he started to use the leverage of saying, you know, like, I can wait for as long as it takes. And, you know, while they declared the military campaign over, U.S. officials did then acknowledge that it might be quite a bit longer to sort of wrap up this war and actually extricate U.S. assets from the region. So that's where we're at right now. And the conversation has really changed around what the motivations were or what the strategy was, or lack thereof and, and what the timeline is going forward.

Michele, I do remember when I said, don't rush me, Jeff. So I remember that and I very clearly I want to put into perspective where we are now, because today you had Iran's top diplomat. He said resuming diplomacy with the U.S. is not is isn't possible. He also said it depends on the U.S. understanding that pressure doesn't work. So that being said, doesn't seem like something the U.S. is going to consider. I mean, we have are squeezing Iran's economy, the blockade in Iranian ports.

Where do we stand right now? Well, Lisa, I would start with the caveat that, you know, we need to talk about what we talk about when we talk about talks. There's many layers of talks here. Um, and at times we've been, you know, at pains to describe what Trump might be referring to if he's saying, oh, we're talking with this or that, uh, country, you know, whether it be a mediating country or with Iran. And usually not directly, but through him in a mediating country.

Um, while Iran is also conducting its own talks, including with Oman, about how to manage the Strait of Hormuz or what the plans are there. So there's a lot of, you know, kind of song and dance around what each country and the specifically U.S. and Iran are posturing toward, uh, the talks and what they say is, is happening or not happening. So that's been one level to unpack. But I think what what is clear is that there is no real evidence or sign that direct talks will happen again any time soon.

And Trump and the U.S. administration have expressed, uh, a sort of impatience. But then also at times, uh, you know, a blame, a blame game on Iran for not coming to the table with something more serious and, and actually kind of, you know, resisting any attempt to negotiate on things like the Strait of Hormuz and, and not to mention the long term nuclear ambitions which were at the core of the start of this war. Yeah.

And you mentioned the Strait of Hormuz. So I'm just going to go there. Um, where do we stand with the opening? There's a few things, like you said, talks and talks and talks. Yet Iran's military said revenue sharing agreement has been reached with Oman. Iranian officials said though that deal wouldn't mean an immediate reopening. And then you had President Trump saying that Hormuz is a very functioning strait. It all seems very back and forth.

Where do we stand with the strait right now? Yeah. Well, first I will say I mean, Lisa, looking back at our coverage from the first day of the war from February 28th, um, it was clear, you know, to parts of this newsroom, especially those who cover energy more closely, that Hormuz would be highly impacted and would become, you know, if this thing lasts any longer than the timeline that the U.S. officials were projecting that it would become a central, uh, point and a focal point of this war.

And it has um, so here we are with, uh, you know, the Strait of Hormuz opening or not opening and how it might be regulated being a central question about how the region and the world can move on from this war, even if U.S. assets stay. So where we are in that, uh, you know, again, layers of questions, uh, Iran and Oman, as you mentioned, continue to talk. Um, may have settled on some agreements or not around how they would like to manage the street, but the reality is that Iran remains a threat to U.S. military forces, to, um, U.S. assets in the region, as well as, uh, you know, U.S. partners in the region, most notably, and anyone who's trying to traverse the strait right now.

I mean, they've said it and they've acted on it, that they're continuing to harass vessels. Um, and much to the chagrin of U.S. officials who are projecting otherwise, it does remain a challenge to to keep the strait open and to keep safe passage and to convince commercial shippers of every nation that they can escort through safely, uh, under the guidance of the U.S. military. So it's, uh, it's still at something of an impasse.

And on the diplomatic side, you know, like we said, there's no agreement. Trump is pushing a hard line. He wants the strait open. He doesn't want anyone to gain a profit. And and that to be noted, you know, is different from what he said at times, uh, you know, months ago about, you know, perhaps the U.S. and Iran can share profits in this. And now the U.S. is pushing, you know, it should be open. It should be free. It should be secure.

Um, and, you know, the US would likely, uh, want to extricate itself from the region, especially from the levels of assets that we currently have there. Now, all that said, Michele, is the the flow of crude, though through the strait. It's been rising. Correct? Yes. I you know, I think our energy analysts have been unpacking those numbers day to day and hour by hour. And the claims from U.S. officials have been, you know, from Trump included, as well as energy secretary.

Right. Uh, you know, in the past week or so have been that, you know, about 15 millions, 15 million barrels of oil have come out. Uh, U.S. officials are also saying that they're preventing they're successfully preventing, you know, Iranian exports, uh, from getting out of the region. So in Trump's view, the U.S. blockade has worked. And, uh, you know, it's restarting those energy flows. And our energy analysts, too, will always are at pains to point out, um, you know, investors are reacting to the fact that there is an increase in those flows while not anywhere close to the pre-war levels where the street was, you know, hosting traffic, about a fifth of the the world's LNG exports.

So it's it's really, um, you know, progress, but not where it used to be. And, you know, how do we get to that old level is a big question, Michel. We can't ignore the effect of this on the United States, the really politically speaking. And that has to do with the midterms and the way that as we do get closer and closer to November and the midterm elections, the way that Democrats and Republicans are talking about this conflict, is it is it the type of thing that Democrats are seizing upon right now in their fight for the midterms?

Well, they certainly are seizing on it to connect it to the affordability issue, which was already an issue before the Iran war, as you know. And, you know, separately from the Iran war, even though you can't really extricate it right now, it remains an issue in terms of inflation, housing. I mean, we'd go of course, we had the fed chair today talking about all of these issues, as you noted. Um, you know, the gasoline pump prices that are constantl