美联储主席沃什今日杰克逊霍尔讲话,投资者期待通胀政策信号
Kevin Warsh Takes Center Stage, France’s Debt Divide, America Bets on English Football |...
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Daybreak HUT podcast. Good morning. It's Friday the 28th of August. I'm Caroline Hepka in London
彭博音频工作室播客、广播、新闻。这里是彭博黎明HUT播客。早上好。今天是8月28日,星期五。我是卡罗琳·赫普卡,在伦敦。
and I'm Steven Carroll in Brussels. Coming up today, investors want a clear message from the Federal Reserve's Kevin Worsh on inflation. But will they get it? France's first presidential election debate descends into bickering over the country's swelling debt. Plus, soccer meets football. What the tide of American investment means for the sport in the UK.
我是史蒂文·卡罗尔,在布鲁塞尔。今天的内容包括:投资者希望美联储的凯文·沃什就通胀问题给出明确信号,但他们能得到吗?法国首场总统选举辩论因国家不断膨胀的债务问题而陷入争吵。此外,足球遇上橄榄球,美国投资潮对英国这项运动意味着什么。
Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
让我们从今日头条新闻概览开始。
Investors are urging the Federal Reserve chief Kevin Worsh to take a stronger line on inflation in his speech at Jackson Hole later today. Wall Street analysts including from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley say more clarity from the Fed chair could help to calm the US bond market. Apollo's Torston Sllock says investors need to hear more about how Wars sees the economy. The risk is that if he does not give any framework guidance the risk is that that will involve a much higher move in long rates because long rates need some more clarity around what are the reaction functions for the FMC?
投资者敦促美联储主席凯文·沃什在今天稍后于杰克逊霍尔的演讲中对通胀采取更强硬的立场。包括摩根大通和摩根士丹利在内的华尔街分析师表示,美联储主席提供更多明确性可能有助于安抚美国债券市场。阿波罗的托尔斯滕·斯洛克表示,投资者需要更多了解沃什如何看待经济。风险在于,如果他不给出任何框架指引,风险在于这将导致长期利率大幅上升,因为长期利率需要更明确地了解FMC的反应函数是什么?
What are the frameworks that they're using? Are they going to tighten policy through rate hikes, through the balance sheet, through tighter financial conditions? Does he think the move on rates is enough to slow inflation down?
他们使用的框架是什么?他们是否会通过加息、资产负债表、收紧金融条件来收紧政策?他认为利率变动是否足以减缓通胀?
Apollo's chief economist added that Warsia's evasive communication style has so far baffled investors. The yield on 30-year Treasury surged to its highest level since 2007 after Worsh's last press conference. Any downwards move would help Treasury Secretary Scott Besson's mission to stop a sell-off in longerdated debt. Walsh's speech comes as views diverge among Fed officials at Jackson Hull on the need for higher rates.
阿波罗首席经济学家补充说,沃什亚的回避式沟通风格迄今已让投资者感到困惑。在沃什上次新闻发布会后,30年期国债收益率飙升至2007年以来的最高水平。任何下行变动都将有助于财政部长斯科特·贝森阻止长期债务抛售的任务。沃什的讲话正值美联储官员在杰克逊霍尔就提高利率的必要性意见分歧之际。
The Fed's Chicago President Austin Goulby says that he's happy to wait for more evidence.
美联储芝加哥分行行长奥斯汀·古尔斯比表示,他愿意等待更多证据。
I need evidence that inflation that that that this inflation shock is is not going to be persistent. Uh, and I'm okay with waiting as as we're getting that, but if the evidence starts coming back, especially on services, that it's high, it's going the wrong way, we're not making progress, then I'm going to be nervous.
我需要证据证明通胀,证明这次通胀冲击不会持续。嗯,在获取这些证据的过程中,我愿意等待,但如果证据开始显示,特别是在服务业方面,通胀高企,方向错误,我们没有取得进展,那么我会感到紧张。
Goulsby there speaking to Bloomberg's OddLots podcast at Jackson Hole. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmidt fears interest rates aren't doing enough to restrain the US economy. You've got a half of the people that say, "Well, it's certainly not uh restrictive." Um it it seems like it might be close to about right, but for me, um you know, I I think it may be accommodative on the short end.
古尔斯比在杰克逊霍尔接受彭博OddLots播客采访时发表了上述言论。与此同时,堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密德担心利率不足以抑制美国经济。有一半的人说:‘嗯,这肯定不是限制性的。’嗯,看起来可能差不多刚刚好,但对我来说,你知道,我认为在短期端可能是宽松的。
Both Schmidt and Goulsby signal that they're open to Walsh's proposal to cut the number of Fed policy meetings from eight down to six per year. Now you can hear Fed Chair Kevin Walsh's speech live in a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg Radio beginning at 9:00 a.m. on Wall Street. That's 2 p.m. in London.
施密德和古尔斯比都表示,他们对沃尔什提出的将美联储政策会议次数从每年八次减少到六次的提议持开放态度。现在,您可以在彭博广播电台的彭博观察特别节目中,于华尔街时间上午9点(伦敦时间下午2点)收听美联储主席凯文·沃尔什的现场演讲。
France's first presidential election debate was dominated by how to deal with the country's swelling debt. After the three-hour event, the seven contenders agreed on the urgency of narrowing the runaway budget deficit. During the debate broadcast on French channel Lce, Farright Leader Marin Le Pen outlined her party's plans. We will present just before the budgetary debate. We will present our trajectory to reestablish the public finances with €125 million in savings.
法国首场总统选举辩论主要围绕如何应对不断膨胀的债务展开。在长达三小时的活动结束后,七位候选人一致认为缩小失控的预算赤字迫在眉睫。在法国Lce频道播出的辩论中,极右翼领导人玛丽娜·勒庞概述了她所在政党的计划。我们将在预算辩论前提出我们的方案。我们将提出恢复公共财政的路径,节省1.25亿欧元。
Why? Not because it makes me happy, but because it is absolutely necessary to do it.
为什么?不是因为这样做让我高兴,而是因为这样做绝对必要。
Marin Lean speaking on say meanwhile the former prime minister Edoar Philip suggested a change to the parliamentary rules. It's true. I have proposed something akin to a golden rule given the disorder that we have seen in the national assembly. I proposed a rule that forces parliament to respect this balance of public finances.
玛丽娜·勒庞在发言中表示,与此同时,前总理爱德华·菲利普建议修改议会规则。确实如此。鉴于我们在国民议会中看到的混乱局面,我提出了一项类似于黄金法则的规则。我提议制定一项规则,迫使议会尊重公共财政的平衡。
Philip speaking there. The end of President Emanuel Macron's decade in power next May is creating uncertainty over how France's economic and fiscal policy will change. The yield premium on France's 10-year bonds over their German equivalents has widened to around 85 basis points from less than 60 at the start of 2026. Nvidia added more than 440 billion dollars to its market value in the second biggest one-day gain in stock history.
菲利普在那里发表了讲话。明年五月,总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙十年执政的结束,给法国经济和财政政策将如何变化带来了不确定性。法国10年期国债相对于德国国债的收益率溢价已从2026年初的不到60个基点扩大至约85个基点。英伟达市值增加了超过4400亿美元,创下股市历史上第二大单日涨幅。
The move follows a robust revenue forecast from Nvidia guidance that implies more than hundred billion dollars of potential upside to current estimates. Here's Bloomberg's market reporter Anthony Stevens.
这一变动是在英伟达发布强劲的营收预测之后出现的,该预测暗示当前预期可能有超过1000亿美元的上行空间。以下是彭博市场记者安东尼·史蒂文斯的报道。
At the moment, what Nvidia is saying is we are making so much cash that you should be looking at our valuations. And we had investors of the kind of diversity of Bank of America all the way to Michael Bur say that Nvidia might be the new way to play the AI boom in a safe manner and a risk adjusted manner in the second half and that sucked the wind out of the rest of the tech space.
目前,英伟达的说法是,我们赚了这么多现金,你们应该关注我们的估值。我们拥有从美国银行到迈克尔·伯里这样多样化的投资者,他们认为英伟达可能是下半年以安全且风险调整的方式参与AI热潮的新途径,这抽走了科技领域其他板块的风头。
Our markets reporter Anthony Stevens. It comes as the Wall Street Journal reports that Nvidia paused some of its revenue sharing deals with AI cloud companies after some employees expressed potential antirust concerns. Nvidia is facing growing scrutiny over the use of its balance sheet to support projects that create demand for its own chips. A San Francisco judge has ruled that the Trump administration must lift its ban on anthropics AI technology for federal agencies.
我们的市场记者安东尼·史蒂文斯报道。与此同时,《华尔街日报》报道称,英伟达在部分员工表达潜在反垄断担忧后,暂停了与AI云公司的一些收入分成协议。英伟达正面临越来越多的审查,关于其利用资产负债表支持那些创造对其芯片需求的项目。旧金山一名法官裁定,特朗普政府必须解除对Anthropic AI技术用于联邦机构的禁令。
The judge found the ban wasn't adequately justified and was based on a quote desire to make a public example out of Anthropic for its arrogance in criticizing the government. Anthropic has said it welcomed the court's ruling after the Department of Defense had previously labeled the firm a risk to the US supply chain. The clawed chatbot maker added that it remains focused on working productively with the US government to harness AI for national security.
法官认为该禁令缺乏充分理由,并基于一种“想公开惩戒Anthropic因其批评政府的傲慢”的愿望。Anthropic表示欢迎法院的裁决,此前国防部曾将该企业标记为对美国供应链的风险。这家聊天机器人制造商补充说,它仍专注于与美国政府有效合作,利用AI保障国家安全。
The trade war between the US and Canada has produced a new executive order from President Trump renaming Lake Ontario Lake America.
美加贸易战催生了特朗普总统的一项新行政命令,将安大略湖更名为“美利坚湖”。
We're going to be changing the name of Lake Ontario effective immediately to Lake America. That's going to take place right now as I sign the order. That was President Trump speaking from the Oval Office where he told reporters that Canada has been quote ripping us off for a long time on trade. Leaders in both Canada and the US have rebuffed the change. Prime Minister Mark Carney said the name on uh Ontario has indigenous roots and predates Canada's confederation and America's Declaration of Independence.
“我们将立即将安大略湖更名为美利坚湖。这在我签署命令时即刻生效。”这是特朗普总统在椭圆形办公室发表的讲话,他告诉记者,加拿大在贸易上“长期占我们便宜”。加拿大和美国的领导人都拒绝了这一变更。总理马克·卡尼表示,安大略湖的名字具有原住民根源,早于加拿大联邦和美国独立宣言。
New York Governor Kathy Hokll said on social media that her state, which borders the lake, will not comply.
纽约州州长凯西·霍楚尔在社交媒体上表示,她所在的州与湖接壤,不会遵守这一命令。
Research from Goldman Sachs shows that oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around 2/3 of pre-war levels. According to the report, 15 to 16 million barrels of oil a day are leaving the region. The partial recovery is limiting the Iran war's impact on global crude prices. And lastly, UEFA is pursuing a criminal case against FIFA president Yiani Infantino in Switzerland. The action by Europe's football governing body comes amidst the fallout from Infantino's failed plan to monetize the World Cup.
高盛的研究显示,波斯湾的石油出口已恢复到战前水平的大约三分之二。根据报告,该地区每日出口1500万至1600万桶石油。这种部分恢复正在限制伊朗战争对全球原油价格的影响。最后,欧足联正在瑞士对国际足联主席贾尼·因凡蒂诺提起刑事诉讼。欧洲足球管理机构的这一行动,是在因凡蒂诺世界杯商业化计划失败后的余波中进行的。
Barrista Nick Demarco KC says that it is a bold move by UEFA.
律师尼克·德马科(王室法律顾问)表示,这是欧足联的大胆举措。
UEFA applied to get the disclosure. Then the Swiss prosecutor has to have an investigation and look into all these things. And if the Swiss prosecutor thinks there's a case, it then goes to court. It it's as much political as it is legal. And the effect of the disclosure could be the tipping point.
欧足联申请了信息披露。然后瑞士检察官必须进行调查,并审查所有这些事项。如果瑞士检察官认为有案件,就会进入法庭程序。这既是法律问题,也是政治问题。信息披露的效果可能成为转折点。
Lawyer Nick DeMarco speaking there. According to the filing, UEFA's New York lawsuit seeks subpoenas to gather information from Thrive Capital and its founder Joshua Kushner about their role in developing Infantino's strategy. FIFA which is based in Zurich in Switzerland and Thrive Capital did not respond to requests for comment. Those are some of our top stories for you today. Now all eyes on Jackson Hole in Wyoming as we've been talking about to understand whether we'll get a clear policy signal from Ke
以上是律师尼克·德马科的发言。根据文件,欧足联在纽约的诉讼寻求发出传票,以从Thrive Capital及其创始人约书亚·库什纳那里收集关于他们在制定因凡蒂诺战略中所扮演角色的信息。总部位于瑞士苏黎世的国际足联和Thrive Capital未回应置评请求。以上是今天为您带来的部分头条新闻。现在,正如我们一直在讨论的,所有人的目光都集中在怀俄明州的杰克逊霍尔,以了解我们是否能从凯那里得到明确的政策信号。
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