杰克逊霍尔年会前瞻：美债或受沃什讲话冲击

It is. I was going to get to that in a moment. Last night the vibe was a rodeo. I did not attend. I was coming in late, but Mike McKee was there with all of our production team, and they got a bit of the West, uh, with them. But I got the bow tie going just for Alexis. We are formal and the question is, will it? Will it be a formal meeting? And, you know, I really don't know, Alexis. I think it's hugely up in the air.

What we will see at 10 a.m., uh, tomorrow. I just think it's hugely, hugely up in the air. You see that in a Bloomberg editorial this morning where they're calling for a reset? You already see it in the body language of the assembled here. Mike McKee's really on top of that story, but the answer is tomorrow is a complete mystery. I thought maybe you'd go with the bolo tie. Sarah in our control room said maybe he'll pull out the bolo tie.

But you went with your traditional head that out? Yeah, we had that out years ago. I mean, there was sort of like a natural look, but, like, we're going more traditional. But that dovetails with the spirit of what the Kansas City Fed does here is they want it to be very academic, very casual with the papers, more than any year I've been here. Paul, without question, this is a year where everyone is focused on the chairman's speech very, as I guess they should be time.

We also have a Treasury secretary that's that's active in the markets, uh, buying bonds, trying to push interest rates down. I'll be interested to see what some of the academics, uh, how they comment on that over the next couple of days out there. I spoke at length to Catherine Mann last night over Collegial Beverages. Of course. She's with the Bank of England. And, you know, it was a private conversation in that. But I kept circling back to the spirit of America, which is a ginormous a nominal GDP, a nominal GDP, that top line inflation and real GDP statistic of five six, dare I say even 7%.

It is exceptionally unusual to see that smartest thing I've seen in the last 24 hours was. Whoa, who do you think, Edward? You are? Danny saying where yields are right now is not a concern because they haven't buttressed up against this huge nominal GDP that we've seen. And of course, we've got some great voices coming up. Richard Clare to Adam Posen, scheduled to be with us as well, to talk about the oddities of a boom American economy.

And yet so many people, including here in Wyoming, are flat on their back. How do you think that Warsh is really going to hone in and talk about what Beasant did last week, or, I mean, does he want to forget what Beasant did? No, I think it would be away from best. And I think that's highly likely. There won't even be one sentence there. There won't be a Stan Druckenmiller like note, as we saw a few days ago. The wish here, without question, among economists assembled, is that he tried to reframe reset from that disastrous press conference.

They give him credit for creating some mystery of taking the so-called forward guidance away. But they need to hear the worst vision on the dual mandate inflation and jobs, and also how it dovetails into the financial system. I'm with Ethan Harris, the former lead in Bank of America and Lehman Brothers. Uh, Doctor Harris makes clear he feels it will be a nothing burger. Speaking of that, at lunch today at the Pioneer Grill, I will be having burgers there.

I was going to asked, have you had a steak yet? But I'm glad to see meat is on the menu for Always Out There. Hey, Tom. Um, the commissions, uh, the various commissions that Fed Chairman Warsh has established here. Do you think we'll get any color on any progress that those are making? Yeah. Good. Good point Paul. Yeah. Good. Good point. There's got to be a paragraph about how excited he is over his so-called task force is.

Everyone knows I'm not a big fan. I love David Ogilvy comment that I'm paraphrasing, that there's no statues for committees in Central Park. Uh, you know, task force committees. I'm hearing some collegial chitchat on that is how I put it. But yes, I agree. Paul will probably get a paragraph of his enthusiasm for these pending task forces.