CFRA分析师：英伟达下财年营收增长70%，AI投资势头持续

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The news of the day yesterday in terms of company earnings was Nvidia. Some uh numbers after the close. The street likes it. The stock's up 70%. The number that jumped out at me was they projected revenue for the next fiscal year. Growth rate of 70% 70. Put that into context.

It is stunning. And this is on a run rate of 300 billion dollars of so it's not like they they got a couple million dollars. This is $300 billion dollars of revenue growing at 70%. So just extraordinary. I think the tech space tech investors breathe a sigh of relief that the AI uh investment momentum continues. Angelo Zeno, he does this stuff for a living. He's a senior vice president and tech lead for CFR research.

Angela, what were some of your takeaways from Nvidia's earnings and conference call last night? Yeah. So, u you know, I'd say the biggest takeaway obviously is kind of the the revenue numbers that you guys had just alluded to in terms of um expectations for 70% growth next year uh from mid40s. And um you know, I think what's happening right now is a number of factors. One, um hyperscalers are planning to spend much more than maybe we previously anticipated.

Um you know, I think Nvidia pointed to about 1.3 trillion next year and that was about 200 billion above our expectations or forecast for next year. So, um I think that's kind of a big driver and also you know what you're actually seeing away from the the the hyperscalers, those Neoclouds plus Musk um is kind of the bucket I would throw it in and that's actually growing faster than the hyperscalers and I think is helping to really kind of diversify um Nvidia's uh broader business.

And then you know what I would also say is the the content growth story and that's the biggest reason why we have been bullish here over the last couple of years um continues to exceed our expectations and we see no signs of that letting up as we kind of look here over the next couple of iterations. And then of course I mean the I'd say the one blemish was the the margin um issue out there. But that being said, they are going to increase pricing as we go into um you know, calendar 2027 and that you know clearly is supporting that 70% growth trajectory and helping to kind of maybe ease some of those pressures and stabilize the margins going into next year.

But Angela, let's talk about some of the possible hurdles for Nvidia and for growth going forward. I mean, are they too dependent on a small group of tech giants like the hyperscalers as customers? And then also remember some of these customers are increasingly developing in-house chips that could potentially take business away from Nvidia.

Yeah. No, absolutely. You're absolutely right. And I I'd say the competitive pressures are out there. Um and you know, you still look at Nvidia even after the monster move today. You know, I I would say the multiple remains compressed based on some of those concerns, some of the competitive pressures out there, maybe the the f some of the the circular financing concerns that are out there um as well. But as far as the the competitive dynamics and the the customer base is concerned, the good thing is um we are starting to see and there are you know signs that that that customer base will diversify going into next year.

Essentially, you know, Nvidia pointing towards more of a 50/50 split as we go into next year. Um and that kind of helps alleviate maybe some of the the concerns from a uh customer concentration perspective, but that will remain um for the foreseeable future. But in the same respect, listen, um when you think about Nvidia's ecosystem supporting about 6 million developers or so, those hyperscalers will need to continue to spend.

I will just say this, uh maybe the growth rate from the hyperscalers going into next year, let's call it closer to 50%, whereas maybe for some of the the non-hypers scale the the non-hyperscalers, those neoclouds, you'll see significantly higher growth. Let's call it, you know, closer to 90 to 100%. Angel, one of the concerns out there for Nvidia specifically, but I think just for the AI space in general, is some of the uh circular funding uh structures that are being created out there where maybe Nvidia is funding some of its customers in various uh uh formats.

What does the company say about that? Did they address that last night?

They did. Um you know, they actually I think for them it's it's an area of strength and in many respects it is, right? I mean, historically, when you kind of look at the competitive advantage that Nvidia has had, it has been that CUDA software, right? Um, and now it's not just CUDA, it's also the fact that they've got some massive scale. Um, they're generating massive free cash flow. You're looking now at a $200 billion run rate.

This time next year, it'll probably be closer to $300 billion free cash flow run rate. Um, and they're pumping a lot of that right back into the ecosystem. But essentially what they're trying to do is build out be a supporter in growing out that AI um infrastructure because um without them it's going to be nearly impossible to do um for them to kind of go out there and support the ecosystem. They're helping to kind of lower the cost of capital and they're actually um allowing these these neo clouds to um succeed.

So um in many respects they're they're going to participate in term they're going to benefit in the sense that they're going to get that hardware revenue. they're also going to potentially get revenue in terms of and enjoy the the upside um from the actual um sales within those um data centers. But it is a risk. It is absolutely a risk if we get to a point where um we overbuild and Nvidia is sitting there with you know having built too much capacity um as well.

So um there are pluses and minuses to all this. Angelo, how much is is Nvidia doing all of this and and just wowing us with their numbers without China? Because there still are restrictions on Nvidia doing business there, right? How important is gaining more access to the Chinese market for Nvidia's growth?

Yeah. I mean, you you would have thought it would have hurt them by now. I mean, to be honest with you, Yeah. Right. It's it was I think 1% of their their revenue in terms on the data center side or less than 1%. Um, so virtually no revenue uh coming from China. uh at this point in time is is all upside. Uh but at some point in time, listen, it it's going to be an issue for them as the growth rates here in the US eventually have to slow down and we'll see how successful, you know, we kind of get this open source versus closed um you know, model debate.

But um as you kind of see more and more token growth um and success from the the Chinese market um I think you're going to see greater um you know maybe greater concern or um motivation from Nvidia to try to get the US government to to get some of their you know more of their chips into China. But at this point in time um they're they're going to have to do it without China because there's no way you know we think the US government is going to allow that to happen.

Angelo, from a competitive perspective, what is the biggest threat or challenge to uh Nvidia? Is it the other chip makers, the Broadcoms, the AMDs of the world, or is it some of their customers as Alex was suggesting earlier that may be developing their own chips internally?

I I think it has to be some of their customers at this point in time in the sense that it'll it to purchase Nvidia's um servers. That's not going to stop. But what it it can do in terms of you know some of these hyperscalers developing more of their own internal chips is it will slow eventually and and get to the point where you know Nvidia's um growth rate will start to level off and really mature. So um I think that is the biggest risk at this point in time but but keep an eye out for um AMD.

You're going to see them um really come

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