伊朗与阿曼同意共享霍尔木兹海峡通行费

GOOD MORNING. THIS IS "HORIZONS: MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA." OUR TOP STORIES THIS MORNING BULLISH OUTLOOK. NVIDIA SEES ITS SALES GROWING THROUGH 2028. BOOSTING STOCKS AND FUTURES AS CONCERNS EASE THAT AI SPENDING IS POISED TO LOSE MOMENTUM. OIL LOWER AFTER A CHOPPY SESSION AS PROGRESS ON HORMUZ SHIPPING TALKS WEIGHS AGAINST THE RISK OF ESCALATING ATTACKS ON UKRAINE. AND GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKERS HEAD TO JACKSON HOLE WITH WAR-DRIVEN SUPPLY SHOCKS RESHAPING THE POLICY DEBATE AND RAISING THE STAKES FOR INTEREST RATES AND BOND MARKETS.

IT’S JUST GONE 8:00 AM ACROSS THE EMIRATES. I’M ABEER ABU OMAR IN DUBAI WITH A START TO A QUICK LOOK AT WHERE EQUITY BENCHMARKS ARE SITTING. US FUTURES .5% HIGHER. THIS IS NVIDIA. NVIDIA SAME AFTER MARKETS 70% REVENUE GROWTH FOR FRERE 2028. -- FISCAL YEAR 2028. THE ANALYSTS HAD ESTIMATED 45%. SO QUITE A WHOPPING INCREASE IN THAT ESTIMATE THERE. SO THE QUESTION HERE REALLY IS WHY WERE PEOPLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE AI RALLY?

THAT IS A QUESTION THAT WE’RE GOING TO BE ANSWERING MULTIPLE TIMES ON THE SHOW TODAY OR TRYING TO ANSWER HUGHLETT TESTIMONY TIMES ON THE SHOW. AND THEN OF COURSE WE TAKE A LOOK AT THE YIELD ON THE 10-YEAR TREASURY. THIS YEAR NOT DOING TOO MUCH. ABOUT A BASIS POINT HIGHER, 4.66%. STILL LOWER THAN THE LEVELS WE SAW IT AT LAST WEEK. AND ANOTHER TOPIC WE WERE GOING TO BE SPEAKING ABOUT, IN THE SHOW LATER TODAY, AND THEN BRENT CRUDE PRICES FOUR STRAIGHT SESSIONS OF DECLINES. 0.5% LO LOWER. $87 ON THE BARREL.

IRAN AND OMAN CONSIDERING A REVENUE-DRIVEN KIND OF MECHANISM IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. MORE DETAILS ON THAT AS WE DISCUSS THE GEOPOLITICS AND WE CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE BITCOIN IS AND HERE THIS IS WHAT OUR MARKETS TEAM HAD PUT OUT. INVESTORS ARE NO LONGER CHOOSING TO BUY EITHER GOLD OR BITCOIN AS HEDGES AGAINST FISCAL ANXIETY. THEY’RE NOW CHOOSING TO BUY BOTH. AND ACTUALLY, ETF’S THAT ARE TRACKING BITCOIN AND GOLD ATTRACTED A RECORD $7 BILLION OVER THE PAST FIVE TRADING DAYS.

SO YOU’RE SEEING BITCOIN VERY CLOSE TO $79,000 AND GOLD ROAMING AROUND THAT $4,600 AN OUNCE LEVEL WHICH IS ELEVATED COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAD SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS OR SO. AND NOW FOR ASIAN MARKETS, SOME RATE DECISIONS THERE, WE’VE GOT WINNIE HSU STANDING IN HONG KONG FOR US AS USUAL. WINNIE, WHAT DO YOU HAVE FOR US THIS MORNING? WINNIE: WE ARE SEEING ASIAN STOCKS RISING FOR A THIRD DAY. ALSO SIMILAR MOVES IN US FUTURES.

YOU JUST MENTIONED ON THOSE BULLISH OUTLOOK, SALES OUTLOOK FROM NVIDIA. NOW, THAT IS REALLY LIVING TECH SHARES IN ASIA. BUT SPECIFICALLY, WE ARE SEEING KOREA OUTPERFORMING AND WHAT’S COMING THROUGH FROM THE STRENGTH IN THE MEMORY CHIP MAKERS, THE LIKES OF SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS, AND SK HYNIX. WE LEARNED FROM THE EARNINGS THAT THE SURGING MEMORY COSTS CONTINUE TO PRESSURE THE MARGINS FOR NVIDIA AND THAT IS WHY OUR SEEING THESE NAMES CONTINUE TO BE THE BIGGEST BENEFICIARIES IN OUR REGION.

WHILE THE OTHER NAMES SPECIFICALLY THE UPSTREAM NAMES IN THE AI SUPPLY CHAIN, THE LIKES OF THE JAPANESE CHIP MAKERS CONTINUE TO UNDERPERFORM A BIT WHEN IT COMES TO THE COMPARISON WITH THE KOREAN NAMES. NOW, FLIP THE BOARD. YOU JUST MENTIONED ALL ABOUT THE RATE DECISION. AND THE RATE EXPECTATIONS IN ASIA. AND FIRST OFF, WE HAVE WHAT WE SAW IN SOUTH KOREA, THE BACK-TO-BACK RATE HIKES FROM THE CENTRAL BANK. AND ALSO RAISING GROWTH FORECASTS FOR THIS YEAR AS WELL AS NEXT YEAR.

SUBSTANTIALLY. SO WE DID SEE THE KOREAN WON STRENGTHENING AS WELL AS BOND YIELDS RISING AS WELL. RIGHT AFTER THE DECISION. BUT WE DID SEE A BIT OF THOSE MOVES PARING AFTER THE GOVERNOR OF THE BANK OF KOREA MENTIONED THAT THIS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE A GRADUAL MOVE GOING FORWARD. SIMILAR MOVE THAT WE SAW IN THE JAPANESE YEN. WEAKENING A BIT AFTER THE BANK OF JAPAN’S DEPUTY SAYING THAT THIS -- THAT HE DIDN’T REALLY OFFER MUCH OF A HINT IN TERMS OF THE SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE TO COME.

AND ON THE FLIP SIDE OF THINGS, WE DID SEE BOND YIELDS IN AUSTRALIA CONTINUE TO RISE FOR A THIRD DAY. STILL, THE EXPECTATION FOR A RATE HIKE, ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING THOSE HOT CPI PRINTS YESTERDAY. BACK TO YOU, ABEER. ABEER: WINNIE, THANK YOU AS ALWAYS OF COURSE FOR THOSE MARKET UPDATES. NOW, LET’S FOCUS IN ON NVIDIA WHOSE SHARES ARE UP IN LATE TRADING. AND THIS IS AFTER THE CHIP MAKER DELIVERED SECOND QUARTER EARNINGS THAT CRUSHED EXPECTATIONS.

IN A POST-EARNINGS CALL, COMPANY CFO GAVE A BULLISH SALES OUTLOOK AND EASING CONCERNS THAT AI SPENDING IS POISED TO LOSE MOMENTUM.

IN AI DEMAND, DRIVING A GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE BUILDOUT. SO SUPPORTED BY AN EXPANDING AND DIVERSE SET OF GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES. SPANNING HYPERSCALERS, AI LABS, AI NATIVES, ENTERPRISES AND SOVEREIGN CUSTOMERS. WE EXPECT TO GROW REVENUE BY APPROXIMATELY 70% IN FISCAL 2028. ABEER: LET’S NOW GET MORE FROM BLOOMBERG’S SENIOR STRATEGIST NEIL CAMPLING. A TREAT TO HAVE YOU TWO DAYS IN A ROW. LET’S TALK ABOUT NVIDIA. LET’S TALK ABOUT THE EARNINGS, THE SURPRISE THERE, WAS THERE A SURPRISE REALLY?

AND DOES THIS PUT FEARS OF A BUBBLE IN -- AN AI BUBBLE TO REST?

GOOD MORNING. THE SETUP ON THE NUMBERS THE STOCK DIDN’T DO A GREAT DEAL AND AS YOU MENTIONED DURING THE CONFERENCE CALL THAT’S WHEN THE STOCK RIPPED HIGHER. BECAUSE THIS KIND OF GUIDANCE, THE 70% NUMBER FOR FISCAL 2028, WE NEVER GET THIS KIND OF LONG-TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE COMPANY. SO THAT WAS DEFINITELY TAKEN AS A POSITIVE. AND IF WE PUT THAT INTO CONTEXT, WITH THE -- WHICH THE STREET TOOK 45% GROTH FOR THAT FISCAL YEAR, IT MEANS THERE’S AN INCREMENTAL 00 BILLION OF REVENUE THAT THEY’RE TALKING ABOUT AS POTENTIAL UPSIDE TO THIS.

AND THE SECOND, AND PUTTING THE AI BUBBLE CONCERNS TO BED FOR THE TIME BEING, IS THEY MENTIONED THAT THE 70% GROWTH IS CONSTRAINED BY THE SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS. WHEN WE LOOK AT MEMORY CHIPS, AS WE MENTIONED BEFORE. WHEN WE LOOK AT THE FACT THAT EQUIPMENT HAS TO BE DEPLOYED BY THEIR SUPPLIERS. THEY’RE BASICALLY SUGGESTING THAT THAT 70% GROWTH COULD BE AS MUCH AS 100% IF THEY WEREN’T SUPPLY CONSTRAINED WHICH IS FOR THE WORLD’S BIGGEST COMPANY, JUST PHENOMENAL GROWTH.

ABEER: YEAH. AND ESSENTIALLY, WHAT YOU WERE SAYING IS THEY COULD DO MORE IF THERE WEREN’T THOSE SUPPLY CONCERNS. SO WHEN WE TALK ABOUT OTHER CHALLENGES, NEIL, WHAT IS EXPECTED AHEAD FOR NVIDIA? WHAT COULD REALLY DERAIL THIS PERFORMANCE? NEIL: I THINK THE OTHER THING THAT CAME FROM THE CALL ACTUALLY IS -- IS PART OF THE CHALLENGES AND PART OF THE RISKS THAT PEOPLE HAVE OF COURSE. IT’S THIS CIRCUIT OF FINANCING. WHICH THEY ADDRESSED HEAD ON.

AND THEY ACTUALLY SAID ON THE CALL THAT THEY WOULD -- THEY SAID AT THE START OF A MASSIVE COMPUTE CYCLE. AND JENSEN HUANG EVEN SAID ON THE LATE CALL THAT IF HE HAD THE CHANCE, HE WOULD INVEST IN THESE COMPANIES EVEN EARLIER BECAUSE HE THINKS THEY’LL GO ON TO BECOME THE BIGGEST COMPANIES IN THE WORLD. SO IT’S -- THERE IS CERTAINLY GOING TO BE A LOT OF FINANCING THAT’S STILL REQUIRED TO BUILD OUT THE AI COMPUTE. THERE ARE STILL CONCERNS ON THE INFLATIONARY PRESSURES DRIVEN BY THE MEMORY PRICES THAT WE KNOW AND ACTUALLY ALSO SAID ON THE CALL THAT MEMORY IS STILL GOING TO BE IN TIGHT SUPPLY THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWO CALENDAR YEARS.

SO AND IT’S STILL -- THERE ARE STILL BOTTLENECKS AND STILL SUPPLY CHAINS. SO THERE ARE STILL GOING TO BE SOME CONCERNS AROUND THE AI BUILDOUT. BUT IT’S ALSO THE FACT THAT THE AI BUILDOUT IS NECESSARY TO DRIVE WHAT IS A REVOLUTION IN TERMS. KINDS OF TECHNOLOGY THAT WHERE TALKING ABOUT HERE. ABEER: YEAH. NEIL, THANK YOU AS ALWAYS FOR FOLLOWING THAT STORY FOR US OF COURSE. BLOOMBERG’S NEIL CAMPING. SENIOR STRATEGIST COVERING THE NVIDIA EARNINGS FOR US.

NOW, A LOOK AT SOME OF THE OTHER STORIES WE’RE FOLLOWING. META IS PLANNING TO PAY UP TO 8 BILLION TO SETTLE A WIDE-RANGING SOCIAL MEDIA ADDICTION LAWSUIT. THAT IS AFTER MULTIPLE US STATES ALLEGED THAT THE COMPANY DELIBERATELY DESIGNED FACEBOOK AND INSTAGRAM TO ENCOURAGE COMPULSIVE USE AMONG YOUNG USERS. THE DEAL ALSO REQUIRES THE COMPANY TO PUT NEW GUARD RAILS ON ITS PLATFORMS INCLUDING RESTRICTING HOW MUCH TIME YOUNG PEOPLE CAN USE THEM.

AND BLOOMBERG HAS LEARNED

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