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霍尔木兹谈判、美加贸易战、休达后续

Hormuz Talks, A Trade War of Words, Ceuta's Aftermath | Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition

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宏观交易者应关注霍尔木兹海峡临时重开谈判与美加贸易战升级,这两项均可能影响油价与风险偏好;同时留意美债回购计划对长端利率的边际影响。

[music] Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg day [music] podcast. Good morning. It's Wednesday, the 26th of August. I'm Caroline Heepka in London

[音乐] 彭博音频工作室播客、广播、新闻。这里是彭博日[音乐]播客。早上好。今天是8月26日,星期三。我是伦敦的卡罗琳·希普卡

and I'm Steven Carroll in Brussels. Coming up today, oil prices drop as Iran and Dom say they're discussing an interim framework to reopen the straight of Hormuz. The Trump administration considers further trade penalties against Canada as Ontario Premier Doug Ford tells Bloomberg he wants a truce with the US president.

我是布鲁塞尔的史蒂文·卡罗尔。今天的内容有:伊朗和阿曼表示正在讨论重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的临时框架,油价因此下跌。特朗普政府考虑对加拿大实施进一步贸易惩罚,而安大略省省长道格·福特告诉彭博,他希望与美国总统达成休战。

Plus, a month on, Spain's African enclave, Futa, grapples with the continuing aftermath from the day thousands of people crossed into the territory.

此外,一个月过去了,西班牙在非洲的飞地休达仍在应对数千人涌入该领土那天的持续后果。

Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

让我们从头条新闻摘要开始。

Iran and Oman are discussing an interim reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. According to a joint statement from both foreign ministries, the initiative seeks to establish a temporary joint maritime corridor as well as a project for mine clearance to restore safe navigation. Our Middle East correspondent Abu Omar says a resolution may still be far away. There will be further negotiations of course between the two countries to find a more permanent solution over the next 30 to 60 days in which the two countries are going to discuss multiple things including the management over the strait of Hermos.

伊朗和阿曼正在讨论临时重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。根据两国外交部的联合声明,该倡议旨在建立临时联合海上走廊以及扫雷项目,以恢复安全航行。我们的中东记者阿布·奥马尔表示,解决方案可能仍遥遥无期。两国之间当然还会有进一步谈判,以在未来30至60天内找到更永久的解决方案,届时两国将讨论包括霍尔木兹海峡管理在内的多个事项。

So that's back to the table. Iran's assertion of dominance over the waterway is still a very much a point of discussion and it doesn't seem to be going away.

所以这又回到了谈判桌上。伊朗对这条水道的控制主张仍然是一个重要的讨论点,而且似乎不会消失。

That's Bloomberg Zabir Omar. Iran's deputy foreign minister says the two countries will hold further talks about securing a new permanent route through the waterway within 30 to 60 days. According to the semiofficial Tasnim news agency, the news comes after a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said China would take all necessary measures to safeguard its interests after the US sanctioned dozens of its entities for dealings with tan.

以上是彭博的扎比尔·奥马尔报道。伊朗副外长表示,两国将在30至60天内就通过该水道的新永久路线进行进一步会谈。据半官方的塔斯尼姆通讯社报道,这一消息是在中国外交部发言人表示中国将采取一切必要措施维护其利益之后发布的,此前美国因数十家中国实体与伊朗有交易而对其进行了制裁。

Now, Ontario's Premier Doug Ford has called for a truce in his war of words with President Trump whilst backing Canada's plan to retaliate against fresh US tariffs. Canada announced that it will double its existing levies on US steel and aluminium to 50%. It has also raised new tariffs on hundreds of products including dairy, clothes, smartphones, and electronics. Sources tell Bloomberg that the White House is now weighing further trade actions in response.

现在,安大略省省长道格·福特呼吁在与特朗普总统的口水战中休战,同时支持加拿大对美国新关税进行报复的计划。加拿大宣布将把对美国钢铁和铝的现有关税提高一倍至50%。它还对包括乳制品、服装、智能手机和电子产品在内的数百种产品征收了新关税。消息人士告诉彭博,白宫现在正在权衡进一步的贸易行动作为回应。

Doug Ford has been speaking on Bloomberg's balance of power.

道格·福特已在彭博的《权力平衡》节目中发表讲话。

We have to go tariff for tariff and and uh dollar for dollar and it's it's unfortunate. uh we we had an attack from President Trump on our sovereignty, on our country, on the economy that we're so integrated uh both both countries. We're both each other's number one customer and it just doesn't make sense to uh attack attack each other.

我们必须针锋相对,以关税对关税,以美元对美元,这很不幸。特朗普总统对我们的主权、我们的国家以及我们两国高度融合的经济发起了攻击。我们互为对方最大的客户,互相攻击毫无意义。

That was the premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, speaking to Bloomberg's Joe Matthew. He added that he wasn't opposed to further retaliation but stopped short of endorsing a cut off in electricity to the US. The US Treasury's efforts to bring down borrowing costs are starting to show new effects in the bond market since Scott Bessant announced plans to expand bond buybacks. The spread between 30-year treasuries and their swaps has narrowed the smallest since February.

这是安大略省省长道格·福特在接受彭博社乔·马修采访时所说。他补充说,他不反对进一步报复,但并未支持切断对美国的电力供应。美国财政部降低借贷成本的举措开始在债券市场显现新效果,自斯科特·贝森特宣布扩大债券回购计划以来,30年期国债与其互换利率之间的利差已收窄至2月以来的最小水平。

One rate strategist called the move a Bessant put and says it improved demand for longdated debt. But I Capital's global investment strategist Dan Suzuki says that won't meaningfully move bond yields.

一位利率策略师称此举为“贝森特看跌期权”,并表示这改善了对长期债务的需求。但I资本全球投资策略师丹·铃木表示,这不会实质性影响债券收益率。

Basically, they went down by 10 bips per day and then went back to right where they are. I think first of all, the sizes that you're talking are minuscule. 64 billion a year. I mean, you got to put this into context. When we were doing QE, you're doing $120 billion a month, right? So, we're talking about small percentages. They're still issuing like hundred billion of of debt and then buying back two or four. These are really small numbers.

基本上,它们每天下降10个基点,然后又回到原位。我认为首先,你提到的规模微不足道。一年640亿美元。你得放在大背景下看。我们做量化宽松时,每月是1200亿美元,对吧?所以,我们谈论的是很小的百分比。他们仍然发行约千亿的债务,然后回购两到四百亿。这些数字真的很小。

It's more symbolic than anything. Suzuki added he thought the US Treasury was trying to talk bond yields down without actually taking action and there's growing concern about that approach. Billionaire investor Stanley Duken Miller has called Besson's intervention a mistake. Meanwhile, the Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin also warned there will eventually be a reckoning if US debt keeps rising.

这更多是象征性的。铃木补充说,他认为美国财政部试图在不实际采取行动的情况下压低债券收益率,而人们对这种做法的担忧日益增加。亿万富翁投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒称贝森特的干预是个错误。与此同时,里士满联储主席汤姆·巴尔金也警告说,如果美国债务持续上升,最终将面临清算。

Nvidia will deliver earnings later today, providing an update on its efforts to remain at the center of the AI frenzy. Analysts expect the company's revenue to continue growing at breakneck speed, outpacing most rivals. Here's Bloomberg's Anthony Stevens. They're going to report cracking earnings as they always have. Four quarters in a row they've beat on earnings and the stocks dropped four times in a row. So that's not the problem here.

英伟达将于今天晚些时候公布财报,提供其保持AI热潮中心地位的最新进展。分析师预计该公司营收将继续以惊人速度增长,超越大多数竞争对手。以下是彭博社安东尼·史蒂文斯的报道。他们将一如既往地公布强劲的财报。连续四个季度盈利超预期,但股价连续四次下跌。所以问题不在这里。

It's his confidence, Jensen's confidence in maintaining margins, in maintaining the speed of growth, in maintaining the kind of trajectory around the buildout of compute in the US. That was Anthony Stevens who added that Nvidia faces margin compression from rising memory and component costs in Asia. It also has to contend with growing competition from wouldbe rivals developing custom silicon chips in the US.

这是他的自信,詹森对维持利润率、保持增长速度和在美国计算基础设施建设轨迹上的自信。安东尼·史蒂文斯补充说,英伟达面临来自亚洲内存和组件成本上升带来的利润率压力,还必须应对美国本土开发定制硅芯片的潜在竞争对手日益激烈的竞争。

Bloomberg has learned that Meta has discussed a potential midtrial settlement with state attorneys general in California. The blockbuster case accuses the company of deliberately designing Facebook and Instagram to be addictive to teenagers. It comes as the top legal officers of 29 states are seeking huge financial penalties and mandatory changes to how the platforms operate. The spokesperson for Meta had no immediate comment and a representative of the attorney general's office in California declined to comment.

彭博社获悉,Meta已与加利福尼亚州多名州检察长讨论了可能达成的庭中和解。这起重磅案件指控该公司故意将Facebook和Instagram设计成对青少年具有成瘾性。目前,29个州的首席法律官员正寻求巨额罚款,并强制要求改变平台运营方式。Meta发言人未立即置评,加州检察长办公室代表拒绝发表评论。

Now to some news here in the UK. Andy Bernham is calling on British firms to offer work experience to teenagers. The prime minister is announcing a plan by supermarket chain Sainsbur's to offer 10,000 work experience placements in deprived areas. Bluebeck's James Walk has more now. The UK spends 330 billion pounds a year on welfare with roughly one in six young people out of work. Prime Minister Andy Bernham wants to improve both of those figures by getting more young people into work placements.

现在来看英国的一些新闻。安迪·伯纳姆呼吁英国企业为青少年提供工作经验机会。首相正在宣布超市连锁Sainsbur's的一项计划,即在贫困地区提供1万个工作经验岗位。Bluebeck的詹姆斯·沃克现在带来报道。英国每年在福利上花费3300亿英镑,大约六分之一的年轻人失业。首相安迪·伯纳姆希望通过让更多年轻人进入工作岗位来改善这两个数字。

His political critics say Labour raised the minimum wage and strengthened employment laws, making it harder for young people to find a job. But the looming question is if AI might prompt an even bigger rethink of how people get onto the career ladder. In London, James Walcott, Bloomberg Radio. Tributes from the worlds of music and politics are being paid to Dolly Parton, the country music legend who's died at the age of 80.

他的政治批评者称,工党提高了最低工资并加强了就业法律,使年轻人更难找到工作。但迫在眉睫的问题是,人工智能是否可能促使人们对如何进入职业阶梯进行更大的反思。在伦敦,詹姆斯·沃尔科特,彭博广播。音乐界和政界正在向乡村音乐传奇人物多莉·帕顿致敬,她已去世,享年80岁。

The singer, dubbed the queen of country, emerged from extreme poverty in rural Tennessee and was best known for hits including 9 to5 and Jolene. Here is Dolly Parton speaking in a 1982 interview with Barbara Walters talking about what she wanted to accomplish.

这位被称为乡村音乐皇后的歌手,从田纳西州农村的极度贫困中崛起,以《9 to 5》和《Jolene》等热门歌曲最为知名。以下是多莉·帕顿在1982年接受芭芭拉·沃尔特斯采访时谈到她想要实现的目标。

I want people to know there's some brains beneath the wig and a heart beneath the boobs and and I think people are beginning to see that.

我希望人们知道假发下有头脑,胸部下有真心,我想人们开始看到了这一点。

Dolly Parton speaking in 1982. She died in Nashville yesterday after what her team described as a brief battle with cancer. US President Donald Trump wrote in a social media post, "There's never been anyone like her and never will." and ordered American flags to be flown at half mast for a week. And I think probably the one story that people will have seen, it was one of the last things that I saw before I went to bed last night.

多莉·帕顿1982年讲话。她昨日在纳什维尔去世,此前她的团队称她与癌症进行了短暂抗争。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在社交媒体发帖称:“从未有过像她这样的人,今后也不会再有。”并下令美国国旗降半旗一周。我想这可能是人们都会看到的一个故事,也是我昨晚睡前看到的最后几件事之一。

A lot of WhatsApp groups lighting up um to share the sad news of of Dolly Parton's death. some of the tributes that we've seen from the likes of uh Taylor Swift, Elton John, Taylor Swift talking her about talking about her being the gift that kept on giving and signing off her tribute with um we I'll think of you each step of the way which is a nice nod to uh I will always love you as well and I think you know I mean such a long career obviously huge philanthropist as well and someone who's all of whose achievements are being remembered.

许多WhatsApp群组纷纷亮起,分享多莉·帕顿去世的悲伤消息。我们看到来自泰勒·斯威夫特、埃尔顿·约翰等人的一些悼念,泰勒·斯威夫特谈到她是不断给予的礼物,并以“我们会在每一步都想起你”结束她的悼念,这也是对《我将永远爱你》的一个美好致敬。我想你知道,我的意思是,如此漫长的职业生涯,显然也是一位伟大的慈善家,她所有的成就都被人们铭记。

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