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Paul, good to have you with us. I mean, from a European perspective, we're wondering whether the weak oil price might add to risk appetites a little bit. I wonder whether the recent developments around long bonds, do they add to risk appetite a little bit for stocks? If we are seeing a cap on on long bonds for whatever reason. What's your assessment? Yeah. Morning on. Um, so partly that's helped by the oil price moves as well.

Of course. So, uh, declining oil prices, uh, signals slightly slower inflation. And therefore that's good for the back end of the yield curve in particular. So let's go best and we'll be pleased with that. But I think he'll also be pleased if he passes the market metrics a little bit more carefully than looking at the outright yield numbers to see, um, his efforts to come. Things may be working. And so if you look at the swap spread, for example, which is the difference between interest rate swaps and Treasury yields, um, so the Treasury and have it been outperforming relative to the interest rate spot since sort of making it a less negative, uh, difference.

So that shows that there's some, uh, stronger appetite, uh, for bonds relative to those swaps. Another thing is in the options market where again, you're seeing some signs that there's a bit of stabilization. We had a, uh, a write up in a report from Citadel, I think, as well, talking about how they flipped to more bullish on the long bonds, uh, thinking about, um, the positioning of momentum following, um, uh, traders.

And so there are just a few signs that maybe, um, there's a little bit of relief coming for the long bond, but I would say is, I'm not sure that you need to be that worried about them. In any case, um, the economy is bubbling along quite nicely. We're in a higher interest rate environment, and therefore you'd expect higher yields over time. Okay. Timing and the time frame is everything, isn't it? I mean that do do seem to be increasing voices.

Paul warning about the structural nature of the deficit and the inability, it seems, by both parties in the US to deal with that and at some point that will need to be addressed. It's true, is true, and I think the person is working on some plans. He's got a difficult juggling act. He wants to outgrow, um, the debt load rather than, um, necessarily putting in place too much austerity. So, uh, how exactly he's going to convince the market he's going to do that?

Uh, will be, uh, waiting on him and will be watched very carefully over the next couple of weeks. Um, that has come back to the public's attention. One thing that's going to be fueling that growth is the, um, AI, uh, buildout and development. And I think that that's something that he'll be, uh, planning to pay attention to as well in the coming days and weeks. Yes. And from that, from a big picture perspective then, Paul, what are we watching for?

What are you watching for from the Nvidia numbers? Yeah. Happy end day. Uh, and uh, so um, I think there's a few things to watch out for. One revenues TCU expectations around $92 billion. Three Q um, around. Well, more than $100 billion. So watch how that, uh, performance relative to estimates. And the other number that people like to watch out for is the gross margin figure, uh, 75% expected for TCU. If it can come in above that, that will be important.

And then how would they managing costs and how are they going to, uh, look into raising prices? We had some reporting that they're going to be pushing up prices. We know that memory chips are getting more expensive for them and everybody else as well. So those cost controls will matter to.