Bloomberg：Nvidia财报与杰克逊霍尔会议前市场承压

[music] Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. [music] Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krer. It's a mixed picture for equities in the Asia-Pacific. Markets are bracing for two key events this week. On Wednesday in the States, we'll have earnings from Nvidia after the bell. Then on Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Walsh will address the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. And it's there that Worsh is expected to clarify his views on how the Fed should react to stubborn inflation.

And that will coincide with attempts by the US Treasury to bring longerterm yields lower through buybacks of long-dated government bonds. And that's where we begin our conversation with Dylan Woo. Dylan is research strategist at Pepperstone. She spoke with Bloomberg TV host Heidi Strad Watts and Paul Allen.

Dylan, I do want to start on what we're seeing in the Treasury space at the moment. I mean, we've got yields climbing again that uh bounce that we saw last week was very very shortlived. Um we're also expecting to hear from the Trump administration this week unveiling a range of fiscal initiatives to address the uh problem at the core of all of this. Um what do you think is needed here? Well, I think the bond market is obviously ahead of the fats right now and that gap is the whole story.

I think uh the 30-year at um 5.3%ish is a 19-year high. Fine. But what actually matters is Vizent announced he more than doubled the buyback program and the yields barely flinched. And um that tells us it's actually a term uh pro a term premium problem and is quite structural. And you've got inflation that won't come down to the target, a fiscal deficit that just printed its worst um monthly number since um 2021 and a trillion dollar AI corporate bond issuance wave uh competing with government paper for the same uh kind of buyers.

So those three things don't go away because the treasury buys back some bonds and uh bond set off I think um would likely to to continue to genuine physical discipline or or demand destruction but neither imminent I think and um in the near term um the long and treasury yields will likely stay elevated I think. Well, this is arguably making Fed chair Kevin Walsh's job somewhat more challenging, and we will be hearing from him at the end of the week at Jackson Hull.

What do markets need to hear from the Fed chair in terms of inflation targeting, communication about the Fed's next move, and what kind of market reaction do you expect if uh if it doesn't get it? Well, I think it would be uh obviously a really challenging speech for for for Kevin Walsh and um he has no good options to be honest. Um stay quiet and uh yields keep running. uh financial conditions tighten without a single rate hike which is almost you know like poetic in his um dysfunction and also um signal that he's okay with higher long and yields which some people think is actually his his buyers or his stance and you you basically hand the uh bond bears exactly what they need and push back dobbishly and you have the inflation hog a credibility argument um so um actually I think it would be a really uh challenging or or hard task for Kevin Walsh to balance the um you know market expectations of a potential hike and um also you know he need to consider about a sluggish um labor market and also a a sluggish um retail sala back to July.

Dylan, a lot at play here when it comes to the gains across the AI space has been due to the relentlessness of the momentum factor, right? As this begins to fade, it's certainly been challenged over the last couple of rounds of sell-offs. Do you see more of a difficult certainly more of a difficult environment for retail investors, but perhaps more opportunity if you're looking to be a little bit more picky and perhaps value oriented?

Yes, I do think um you know like um everything goes up together is basically yesterday and we really need to um potentially find some uh selective opportunity in the in the AI trade. I mean because the fundamental of the um um the demand in AI is still quite intact. Um AI demand is um quite strong. Hyperscalers capex commitment approaching $7 billion for 2026 um is real and a structural supply uh constraints through the middle of the um of the decade.

Uh but the market's drawing a hard line between companies spending on AI uh and um also companies earning from it. Um Alphabet delivered on monetization in the past quarter. Uh Microsoft pass was um with flying colors. uh but Meta was punished because um you know their lack of uh AI spending discipline. So that divergence widened from here I think in the near future and um so I think it's a selective story rather than everything goes up together um recently and uh we obviously need to look into Nvidia's report to be released on um uh after market close on um 30 uh uh 26th of August.

Um so if we are seeing um solid um chief demand and um potentially more um supply from the Nvidia side that it could be a potential boost to the AI trade. Dylan, are investors f focusing closely enough or looking at the repercussions enough of the feedback loop between what we're seeing from what the bond markets are doing and the relentless pace of fundraising by hyperscalers and other AI players. Does this at some point come to to be a confluence because you would imagine this ultimately results in even more expensive uh levels when it comes to the AI buildout.

Yeah, I think that's a fair point and um I think the interaction effects between the bond market and AI capex is obviously something we need to monitor as well and um the habers scalers are planning to issue roughly $400 billion in investment uh grid bonds in 2027 uh to fund is um AI infrastructure buildout um and um but the issuance has to be assured by the state bond market that's already under structural pressure from physical deficit and persistent inflation and if the 30-year um yield stays above say 5% uh because [laughter] of that financing rises materially and it changes the return math when when AI infrastructure uh in the investment in ways that they aren't yet reflected in tech valuations.

So if we are still seeing the lack of um physical discipline from the long and um from the AI u from the um US um D market then it would be a potential challenge to uh the mid to long-term developments um in the AI trade but in the near term I think what can bring markets more volatility is due Nvidia's report. Uh Dylan just finally you know copper miners have been performing very well in this story. Australia is home to a lot of copper miners and copper also occurs in similar ore bodies to gold as well which is also performing well thanks to the debasement trade.

Um with that in mind how did you like the earning story from miners and and how do you play the Australian story at the moment? Well, I think um um the Australian outlook is generally missed u mixed and um is suggested by um the earning season and the mod speed economy theme I think is still playing out quite well um in Australia. Uh resources as we just mentioned are carrying the load. uh BHP delivered impacts up 30% on uh record copper prices uh biggest dividend in in in four years and real tinter IDA up 28% uh quality Australian names with global commodity exposure specifically are navigating this environment just fine and the problem is basically everywhere else uh non-resources earnings are tracking around uh 2.6 6 uh% growth against underlying inflation of roughly 3.6% and that's a real contraction in purchasing power terms and banks are solid but not that you know spectacular weakening credit um quality as well as concerns about a potential economic slowdown kept coming up uh coming up across different reports.

So that tells you the consumer is under some real pressure and um I think you know is um basically um we're looking into a multi-speed um or multi-sp speeded growth u model in Australia. I think we are still looking at potential upside um of um