德鲁肯米勒抨击贝森特购债计划：政府对抗市场必败
Bessent's Bond Buying "Mistake" | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 8/25/2026
THIS IS "BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY." REPORTING FROM THE MAGAZINE THAT HELPS GLOBAL LEADERS STAY AHEAD. WITH INSIGHT ON THE PEOPLE, COMPANIES, AND TRENDS SHAPING TODAY'S COMPLEX ECONOMY. PLUS, GLOBAL BUSINESS, FINANCE, AND TECH NEWS AS IT HAPPENS. "BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY" WITH CAROL MASSAR AND TIM STENOVEC LIVE ON BLOOMBERG RADIO, TELEVISION, AND BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS. TIM: GOOD AFTERNOON, EVERYONE. I AM TIM STENOVEC ALONG WITH NORAH MULINDA, MARKETS REPORTER CORRESPONDENT.
这里是“彭博商业周刊每日”。来自帮助全球领导者保持领先的杂志的报道。深入洞察塑造当今复杂经济的人物、公司和趋势。此外，还有全球商业、金融和科技新闻实时更新。“彭博商业周刊每日”由卡罗尔·马萨尔和蒂姆·斯托内维克在彭博广播、电视和彭博原创节目上直播。蒂姆：大家下午好。我是蒂姆·斯托内维克，与诺拉·穆林达，市场记者通讯员一起。
SHE IS IN FOR CAROL MASSAR. WE GOT A LITTLE BIT OF MOVES HIGHER BUT THE BIG THING IS TOMORROW, NVIDIA EARNINGS. NORAH: ABSOLUTELY. ALSO GETTING SOME ECONOMIC DATA TOMORROW, PCE. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, EVERYONE IS FOCUS ON WHAT IS GOING ON IN JACKSON HOLE, WHAT WE HEAR FROM KEVIN WARSH. TIM: BEFORE WE GET THERE, WE ARE TALKING OIL PRICES, DOWN EVER SO SLIGHTLY WITH THE NEWS THAT THE U.S. RETURNING DIPLOMATS TO EMBASSIES.
她代替卡罗尔·马萨尔。我们有一点上涨，但大事是明天，英伟达财报。诺拉：绝对。明天还会得到一些经济数据，PCE。周末时，每个人都关注杰克逊霍尔发生了什么，我们会听到凯文·沃什的讲话。蒂姆：在我们到达那之前，我们谈论油价，因美国将外交官送回大使馆的消息而略有下跌。
CHARLIE PELLETT WILL HAVE MORE IN JUST A FEW MINUTES WHEN IT COMES TO THE MARKETS. COMING UP THIS HOUR, BILLIONAIRE INVESTOR STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER OUT WITH SOME HARSH WORDS FOR SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT. ERIK SCHATZKER WILL BE JOINING US IN JUST A MINUTE. IT WAS ONLY A YEAR AGO THAT HE HAD THE COVER STORY ABOUT THE TREASURY SECRETARY, WHEN HE INTERVIEWED STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER FOR THAT STORY. NORAH: KAILEY LEINZ SITTING DOWN WITH THE CHAIR AND CEO AND PRESIDENT OF NORTHROP GRUMMAN.
查理·佩莱特将在几分钟后带来更多市场消息。接下来这一小时，亿万富翁投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒对财政部长斯科特·贝森特发表严厉言论。埃里克·沙茨克将在片刻后加入我们。就在一年前，他写了关于财政部长的封面故事，当时他为那个故事采访了斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒。诺拉：凯莉·莱因茨与诺斯罗普·格鲁曼的董事长兼CEO和总裁坐下来交谈。
WE WERE BRINGING YOU THE CONVERSATION SHORTLY. TIM: WE HAVE THE VP OF ALEXA AND ECHO AT AMAZON AS THE COMPANIES CONTINUE TO BATTLE EACH OTHER FOR DOMINANCE OF AI. FIRST, A CHECK ON THE DAYS TRADE AND TOP BUSINESS STORIES. CHARLIE: I WANT TO BEGIN WITH WORD THAT WE ARE JUST GETTING ABOUT DOLLY PARTON. THE COUNTRY SINGER, SONGWRITER, ENTERTAINER, HAS DIED AT THE AGE OF 80, THAT WORD FROM HER SON. DOLLY PARTON, DEAD AT AGE 80.
我们很快会为您带来这段对话。蒂姆：我们有亚马逊Alexa和Echo的副总裁，因为公司们继续在AI主导权上互相竞争。首先，查看今日交易和顶级商业新闻。查理：我想从我们刚刚得到的关于多莉·帕顿的消息开始。这位乡村歌手、词曲作者、艺人，已经去世，享年80岁，这是她儿子传来的消息。多莉·帕顿，享年80岁去世。
STOCKS ARE MOVING HIGHER, THE DOW, S&P, NASDAQ ADVANCING COME OF THIS AS OIL PRICES DECLINE. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE DOWN BY 3.3%. A BARREL OF BRENT, 88.46, A DROP OF JUST OVER 4%. STOCKS ARE ADVANCING. S&P UP 20 POINTS, GAIN OF ZERO POINT 2%. THE DOW INDUSTRIALS HIGHER BY 0.2%. NASDAQ 100 INDEX HIGHER BY 0.4% AHEAD OF NVIDIA EARNINGS TOMORROW. NVIDIA SHARES ARE ADVANCING TODAY, PART OF A BROADER TECH RALLY. 10-YEAR, 4.64%. 30-YEAR, 5.1 7%.
股票正在上涨，道琼斯、标普、纳斯达克因油价下跌而上涨。西德克萨斯中质原油下跌3.3%。布伦特原油每桶88.46美元，跌幅略超4%。股票在上涨。标普上涨20点，涨幅0.2%。道琼斯工业指数上涨0.2%。纳斯达克100指数在英伟达明天财报前上涨0.4%。英伟达股价今天上涨，是更广泛科技反弹的一部分。10年期国债收益率4.64%。30年期国债收益率5.17%。
GOLD DOWN 0.1%. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE DOWN 3.1%. BRENT CRUDE, A DROP OF 4%. DOWN, S&P, NASDAQ ALL ADVANCING AS OIL DECLINES. CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER MARK CARNEY HAS MATCHED DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR THOSE NEW TARIFFS IMPOSED BY PRESIDENT TRUMP OVER THE WEEKEND. HE ALSO ANNOUNCED A SUPPORT PROGRAM FOR CANADIAN BUSINESSES HURT BY THE ESCALATING TRADE WAR. CANADA WILL DOUBLE ITS EXISTING COUNTER TARIFFS ON U.S. STEEL AND ALUMINUM PRODUCTS TO 50 PERCENT.
黄金下跌0.1%。西德克萨斯中质原油下跌3.1%。布伦特原油下跌4%。随着油价下跌，标普500和纳斯达克均上涨。加拿大总理马克·卡尼已对总统特朗普周末实施的新关税进行了等额对等回应。他还宣布了一项支持计划，以帮助受不断升级的贸易战影响的加拿大企业。加拿大将对美国钢铁和铝产品的现有反制关税提高一倍，至50%。
WE ARE SEEING STEEL STOCKS ADVANCE. SHARES OF NIPPON STEEL, THE OWNER OF U.S. STEEL, UP 0.8 PERCENT. CLEVELAND CLIFFS UP TO 1.7%. NUCOR UP BY 1.1 PERCENT. THE CANDIDATE ETF, ISHARES CANADA ETF HIGHER BY 0.8%. REPEATING THE EARLIER HEADLINE WE JUST BROUGHT YOU, COUNTRY SINGER DOLLY PARTON, DEAD AT AGE 80. THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. TIM: LOSS OF A LEGEND. THANK YOU FOR THE UPDATE. IT'S ONE OF THE MOST READ STORIES OF THE BLOOMBERG.
我们看到钢铁股上涨。美国钢铁公司所有者日本制铁的股价上涨0.8%。克利夫兰克利夫斯上涨1.7%。纽柯上涨1.1%。候选ETF——iShares加拿大ETF上涨0.8%。重复我们刚才带给您的头条新闻，乡村歌手多莉·帕顿去世，享年80岁。这是彭博商业快讯。蒂姆：失去了一位传奇人物。感谢您的更新。这是彭博社阅读量最高的报道之一。
BILLY NEAR STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER WITH SOME HARSH WORDS FOR TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT, WRITING IN A WALL STREET JOURNAL OPINION PIECE, "GOVERNMENTS DEPENDING PRICES AGAINST FUNDAMENTALS ALWAYS LOSE. THE ONLY VARIABLE IS HOW MUCH THEY SPEND BEFORE CONCEDING. THE U.S. SHOULD NOT PUT ITSELF ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THAT TRADE, NOT WITH THE MOST IMPORTANT PRICE IN THE WORLD, AND NOT WHEN THAT PRICE IS TRYING TO SAVE THE ONE THING THAT WASHINGTON MOST NEEDS TO HEAR, LET THE BOND MARKET SPEAK."
比利·尼尔接近斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒，他对财政部长斯科特·贝森特发表了严厉的批评，在《华尔街日报》的评论文章中写道：“政府试图用价格对抗基本面，总是会输。唯一的问题是他们在认输前会花费多少。美国不应站在那笔交易的错误一边，尤其是在涉及世界上最重要的价格时，也不应在那价格试图拯救华盛顿最需要听到的东西时——让债券市场发声。”
IT'S A MOVE THAT MARKETS ARE INTERPRETING AS AN ATTEMPT TO PUSH DOWN YIELDS. WE KNEW THERE WAS ONE PERSON WE WANTED TO TALK TO ABOUT THIS BECAUSE IT WAS JUST A YEAR AGO HE HAD THE BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK COVER STORY ABOUT THE TREASURY SECRETARY. YOU CAN SEE THE COVER THERE ON TV OR ON YOUTUBE. HE INTERVIEWED STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER. ERIK SCHATZKER IS THE EDITORIAL DIRECTOR OF BLOOMBERG NEW ECONOMY. HE JOINS US HERE IN THE STUDIO.
市场将此举动解读为试图压低收益率。我们知道我们想找一个人来谈论此事，因为就在一年前，他曾在《彭博商业周刊》上发表了关于财政部长的封面故事。您可以在电视或YouTube上看到那个封面。他采访了斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒。埃里克·沙茨克是彭博新经济的编辑总监。他来到我们的演播室。
I WANT TO GET INTO DROPPING MILLER'S HISTORY WITH THE TREASURY SECRETARY, WITH SOROS. BEFORE WE DO THAT, WHY IS IT SUCH A BIG DEAL THAT HE WENT TO THE JOURNAL WITH THIS OPINION PIECE? ERIK: FIRST OF ALL, THE JOURNAL IS THE PLACE THAT STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER TYPICALLY GOES IF HE WANTS TO MAKE A PUBLIC STATEMENT. THAT PART OF IT IS NOT UNUSUAL, BUT HE DOESN'T DO THIS VERY OFTEN. SO PAY ATTENTION WHEN HE DOES. WHY DO WE PAY ATTENTION TO STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER?
我想深入探讨德鲁肯米勒与财政部长、与索罗斯的历史。在我们这样做之前，为什么他去《华尔街日报》发表这篇评论文章如此重要？埃里克：首先，《华尔街日报》是斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒通常发表公开声明的平台。那部分并不罕见，但他并不经常这样做。所以当他这样做时，我们要注意。为什么我们要关注斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒？
BECAUSE FEW PEOPLE WOULD ARGUE THAT HE IS THE BEST INVESTOR IN MODERN HISTORY. NEVER A DOWN HERE WHEN HE WAS RUNNING TOUCAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, GEORGE SOROS' CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, HE HIRED SCOTT BESSENT IN 1991. HE SENT SCOTT BESSENT TO ENGLAND ON THE BASIS OF INFORMATION, PARTLY ON THE BASIS OF INFORMATION THAT SCOTT BESSENT WAS PROVIDING, WORKING FOR THE SOROS FUND MANAGEMENT IN THE EARLY 1990'S, DRUCKENMILLER AND SOROS DECIDED TO BET AGAINST THE BRITISH POUND, SHORT OF IT, AND BROKE THE BANK OF ENGLAND.
因为很少有人会争辩他不是现代史上最优秀的投资者。在他执掌杜肯资本管理公司期间，从未有过低谷，作为乔治·索罗斯的首席投资官，他在1991年雇佣了斯科特·贝森特。他基于信息将斯科特·贝森特派往英格兰，部分基于斯科特·贝森特提供的信息，在1990年代初期为索罗斯基金管理公司工作，德鲁肯米勒和索罗斯决定做空英镑，并击垮了英格兰银行。
IT IS THAT FUNDAMENTAL TRUTH THAT GOVERNMENTS DEPENDING PRICES AGAINST FUNDAMENTALS ALWAYS LOSE THAT WAS PROVEN THERE, IN WHICH DRUCKENMILLER ARGUES BUT ONCE AGAIN BE PROVEN HERE. TIM: SO TAKE US TO TODAY, ACTUALLY, LAST WEEK. ERIK: FOR THE BENEFIT OF MANY, WE NEED TO REVIEW WHAT SPARKED THIS DISAGREEMENT, THIS RIPOST FROM STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER, WHICH BY THE WAY, YOU CANNOT NOT LOOK AT AS ANYTHING BUT A HARSH SCOLDING.
正是那个基本真理——政府违背基本面支撑价格总是会失败——在那里得到了证明，德鲁肯米勒认为这一点将再次在这里得到证明。蒂姆：那么带我们到今天，实际上，上周。埃里克：为了许多人的利益，我们需要回顾是什么引发了这场分歧，这场来自斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒的反击，顺便说一句，你不可能不把它看作是一次严厉的训斥。
THE MENTOR PUBLICLY ADMONISHING HIS PROTEGE. FOR THOSE WHO HAVE NOT READ IT, GO AND READ IT. IF YOU ARE LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE A BLOOMBERG TERMINAL, IT IS SIMPLE. IT WILL COME UP. YOU CAN OF COURSE READ IT IN THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. YOU WILL LOOK LONG AND HARD TO FIND A PIECE OF WRITING THIS SAVAGE AND THIS DEVASTATING. I MEAN THAT. SO, LAST WEEK, THE TREASURY ANNOUNCES IT WILL DOUBLE THE SIZE OF ITS LONG-TERM BOND BUYBACK PROGRAM FROM $2 BILLION TO $4 BILLION, AND THEN BESSENT DOUBLES DOWN EFFECTIVELY AND SAYS, WE MAY SPEND MORE THAN $4 BILLION.
导师公开训诫他的门徒。对于那些没有读过的人，去读一读吧。如果你有幸拥有彭博终端，那很简单。它会弹出来。你当然也可以在《华尔街日报》上读到。你会费尽心思才能找到一篇如此尖刻和毁灭性的文章。我是认真的。所以，上周，财政部宣布将其长期债券回购计划的规模从20亿美元翻倍至40亿美元，然后贝森特实际上加倍下注，说我们可能会花费超过40亿美元。
AND DRUCKENMILLER SAYS $4 BILLION UNDERSTATES THE GRAVITY OF THIS MISTAKE. AND FOR MY OWN PURPOSES, I HAVE BROKEN IT DOWN INTO FOUR COMPONENT PARTS. THIS IS HOW DRUCKENMILLER DISMANTLES THE ARGUMENT BEHIND A LONG-TERM BOND BUYBACK PROGRAM. NUMBER ONE, IT IS UNWARRANTED. THERE IS NO CRISIS. YES, YIELDS ARE RISING, BUT THAT IS THE MARKET FUNCTIONING THE WAY IT IS SUPPOSED TO FUNCTION. PRICING IN THE GROWING RISK OF TWO THINGS, MORE INFLATION -- WE HAVE SOME ALREADY OBVIOUSLY -- AND TWO, THE GROWING POSSIBILITY OF U.S.
德鲁肯米勒说40亿美元低估了这个错误的严重性。为了我自己的目的，我将其分解为四个组成部分。这就是德鲁肯米勒如何拆解长期债券回购计划背后的论点。第一，这是没有根据的。没有危机。是的，收益率在上升，但那是市场在按应有的方式运作。定价反映了两种日益增长的风险：一是更多的通胀——我们显然已经有一些了——二是美国日益增长的可能性。
GOVERNMENT DEFAULT. THIS IS WHAT THE BOND MARKET DOES. THIS IS NOT MARCH 2020. THIS IS NOT THE 2020 TWO CRISIS IN U.K. GILTS THAT CAUSE TO LOSE AS PRIME MINISTER. THERE WERE NO FAILED AUCTIONS, NO DEALER BALANCE SHEET SEIZURES, NO FORCED UNWINDS. NUMBER TWO, IT IS HYPOCRITICAL. WHO WAS MORE CRITICAL OF QUANTITATIVE EASING -- MAYBE SOME PEOPLE -- BUT FEW MORE VOCAL AND AGGRESSIVELY SO THAN SCOTT BESSENT? DRUCKENMILLER POINTS OUT THIS IS EFFECTIVELY A VERSION OF QE.
政府违约。这就是债券市场的运作方式。这不是2020年3月。这不是导致首相下台的2020年英国国债危机。没有失败的拍卖，没有交易商资产负债表冻结，没有强制平仓。第二，这是虚伪的。谁比斯科特·贝森特更批评量化宽松——也许有些人——但很少有人比他更直言不讳、更激烈？德鲁肯米勒指出，这实际上是一种量化宽松的版本。
THE OTHER THING HE HATED ABOUT CUTIE -- QE, BESSENT, THAT IS, HE MADE THE CASE THAT IT WAS A BLURRING OF THE LINE BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY. AND HERE YOU HAVE THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT, TREASURY SECRETARY USURPING THE AUTHORITY OF THE FED CHAIRMAN. NUMBER THREE, GOING BACK TO THIS IDEA OF FUNDAMENTALS. IT VIOLATES ONE OF THE CARDINAL LAWS OF THE FINANCIAL UNIVERSE. GOVERNMENTS WILL ALWAYS LOSE WHEN THEY TRY TO FIGHT FUNDAMENTALS.
他讨厌Cutie——即QE，贝森特——的另一件事是，他提出这模糊了财政政策与货币政策之间的界限。在这里，财政部、财政部长篡夺了美联储主席的权力。第三点，回到基本面这一理念上。这违反了金融界的一条基本法则。当政府试图对抗基本面时，它们总会失败。
AGAIN, I HAVE MENTIONED THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT DRUCKENMILLER AND GEORGE SOROS APPROVAL OF A BET AGAINST THE BANK OF ENGLAND. AS DRUCKENMILLER SAYS, THIS IS ANOTHER USEFUL QUOTE TO DRAW FROM THIS ESSAY, ONCE MARKETS BELIEVE TREASURY IS DEFENDING A PRICE, EVERY RISE IN YIELDS BECOMES A TEST OF OFFICIAL RESOLVE, AND THE OPERATION MUST GROW TO SURVIVE THE TESTS. THAT RAISES AN INEVITABLE QUESTION. IF IT IS A FIGHT EFFECTIVELY BETWEEN THE POLICYMAKER AND THE MARKET, HOW MUCH AMMUNITION DOES THE POLICYMAKER HAV
再次，我提到这正是德鲁肯米勒和乔治·索罗斯押注做空英格兰银行时所获认可的做法。正如德鲁肯米勒所说，从这篇文章中可以引用的另一句有用的话是，一旦市场相信财政部在捍卫某个价格，每一次收益率上升都会成为对官方决心的考验，而操作必须不断扩大才能在这些考验中生存。这引出了一个不可避免的问题。如果这实际上是政策制定者与市场之间的较量，那么政策制定者有多少弹药可用呢？
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力