美国拟对伊朗实施二级制裁，重点针对中国等贸易国

So what's on the agenda here? Good morning guy. Well, TBC is what you just have mentioned. We have to await, of course, the details of what Scott Benson will lay out in this press conference. But what is widely expected is an announcement of some kind of secondary sanctions against countries that continue or choose to continue to do deals or trade deals with Iran. That, of course, includes countries in the Gulf, namely the United Arab Emirates.

That, of course, includes India and the big one, China, which buys about 90% of Iranian oil. China actually came out over the weekend and said that it will continue to support the diplomatic route between the United States and Iran, but any kind of secondary measure against China will bring out a bigger conversation about tariff or trade wars between the United States and other countries. Well, one thing is for sure, all we have to wait for is that announcement from Scott percent.

And what exactly will be the details? He, of course, wrote for the Financial Times earlier, saying some powerful words along the lines of to become a sanctuary for terror is to become, in the eyes of the United States, a global pariah, signaling that the, the, that whatever, whatever he's going to come up with in terms of this economic isolation plan is going to carry wide implications for countries that choose to continue to do trade with, uh, with Iran.

Yes. And the US president is is is is well, hopes, I suppose that the measures that he will bring in the best and will talk about will force Tehran to accept a deal. Uh, what what what is the likely response, we think, from Tehran? I suppose it depends what level of escalation is still possible in terms of sanction. 100%. I mean, that's that's the reality of the situation. The IRGC did come out and and did say that they have scenarios laid out for any kind of economic isolation plan that the US has in place.

Now, it's not really clear how Iran will choose to to to retaliate against against what the U.S. lays out. But there are a couple of puzzle pieces that are in order. One. The U.S. naval blockade continues to take place. The central Bank of Iran did say that its exports, its oil exports are now virtually at zero. But what a lot of analysts are telling us is this may spur some kind of, uh, some kind of reaction from Iran to come back to the table.

But if there are meaningful economic actions that are going to be taking place, laid out in the press conference later today, it'll probably take months, about six months for Iran to feel any kind of real economic pressure to succumb and come back to the table. Because for the time being, while the exports are at near zero, Iran still asserts dominance over the Strait of Hormuz. Or it claims that it still asserts dominance of over the Strait of Hormuz, of course.

We've reported multiple times that the number of vessels that are able to make their way through the waterway is virtually at very, very close to zero. We're reporting that, of course, there are about 3 to 4 million barrels of oil that have been able to go through these ships and vessels going dark in the Strait of Hormuz. But that's, of course, nowhere near the levels we were at pre-war. And that is, of course, because of the double blockade of the US, and also the dominance that Iran continues to assert over the waterway.

That is also to not neglect the action that is happening in the Red sea with them. And based Houthi is forcing Saudi Arabia to take the French routes through Africa, as a matter of fact, to be able to, uh, to just stay away from the danger that they have over this very important other choke point that is now under attack. So all of this is to just say that, yes, economic pressure could force Iran ultimately to come back.

It could also force it to retaliate once again against countries in the Gulf. And then you're looking at a situation similar to the end of February, early March, where the parameters of this were escalating yet again.