特朗普拟对伊朗实施经济战,美加贸易谈判在即
Bloomberg News Now: Trump Risks China Blowback With Iran ‘Economic Warfare’ Plan
涵盖地缘政治(美伊制裁升级风险)、宏观政策(美加关税谈判窗口)及流动性预期(MAGA资金池与债市回购),均为影响跨资产定价的关键变量,建议关注相关市场波动。
News when you want it with Bloomberg News now. I'm Nathan Harger and I'm Alexis Christopher. Here are the stories we're following today. Alexis. We begin with the latest developments in the Middle East. Iran is dismissing U.S. threats of economic pain and isolation. Treasury Secretary Scott Benson says the Trump administration will give details of an initiative on Monday that President Trump describes as an economic day.
随时随地获取彭博新闻。我是内森·哈格,我是亚历克西斯·克里斯托弗。以下是我们今天关注的新闻。亚历克西斯:我们从中东的最新动态开始。伊朗无视美国关于经济痛苦和孤立状态的威胁。财政部长斯科特·本森表示,特朗普政府将于周一公布一项计划的细节,特朗普总统将其描述为“经济日”。
We get the very latest from Bloomberg News director Will Kennedy. Aren't that many added things the U.S. can do? There are sanctions that have been in place for many, many years. There's this blockade of oil tankers, which is, of course, having an impact. Iranian oil exports are very close to zero. It would really take an effort to persuade other countries, like China, not to trade with Iran to make a big further difference, one presumes, and putting secondary sanctions on China would be a very big step for lots of reasons, given the broader context on the China U.S. relationship, not least because Donald Trump is about to have a meeting with Xi Jinping and Bloomberg Quicktake.
我们请到了彭博新闻主任威尔·肯尼迪带来最新消息。难道美国能做的额外事情不多吗?多年来一直存在制裁措施。还有对油轮的封锁,这当然产生了影响。伊朗石油出口已接近零。要产生更大的进一步影响,确实需要努力说服中国等其他国家不与伊朗进行贸易,据推测,鉴于美中关系的更广泛背景,尤其考虑到唐纳德·特朗普即将与习近平举行会晤,对中国实施二级制裁将是一个非常大的步骤,原因众多。
Kennedy says China will provide the biggest test of Washington's determination to follow through. Beijing is the main buyer of Iranian oil and Nathan. There may be new tensions in the Asia Pacific. The U.S., Japan and South Korea held a three way call to coordinate their response after North Korea fired a barrage of short range ballistic missiles yesterday. The volley came after President Trump stunned South Korea by abruptly canceling decades old joint military exercises, and the North rejected the president's bid to resume dialogue with leader Kim Jong un.
肯尼迪表示,中国将成为华盛顿决心贯彻到底的最大考验。北京是伊朗石油的主要买家,内森。亚太地区可能出现新的紧张局势。在美国总统特朗普突然取消持续数十年的联合军事演习后,美国、日本和韩国举行了三方通话,以协调他们的回应。此前,朝鲜昨天发射了一轮短程弹道导弹。在朝鲜拒绝了总统恢复与领导人金正恩对话的提议后,发生了这一轮导弹发射。
North Korea says the two leaders may have an excellent relationship, but America's hostile policies haven't changed. Still, South Korea's president says he supports President Trump's decision to curtail the drills and reopen diplomacy. Alexis, a new trade deadline is coming up for the U.S. and Canada. The two sides have until midnight to reach a broader trade deal. After President Trump announced a tentative agreement to avert 50% tariffs on billions of dollars in Canadian goods.
朝鲜表示,两位领导人可能拥有良好的关系,但美国的敌对政策并未改变。尽管如此,韩国总统表示他支持特朗普总统缩减军演并重新开启外交的决定。亚历克西斯,美国和加拿大即将迎来新的贸易截止日期。双方必须在午夜之前达成更广泛的贸易协议。此前,特朗普总统宣布了一项初步协议,以避免对价值数十亿美元的加拿大商品征收50%的关税。
Sources tell Bloomberg the current deal would lower tariffs on certain Canadian steel and aluminum exports to 25%, and Canadian car duties would fall to 15%. Chrystia Freeland is a former Canadian deputy prime minister. She says both sides need a better outcome. I think that is a bad outcome for Canada to have permanent tariffs on our steel, aluminum, cars and carport parts really harmful for those sectors. But I think it's a bad outcome for the United States as well.
消息人士告诉彭博社,目前的协议将把对加拿大部分钢铁和铝出口的关税降至25%,加拿大汽车的关税将降至15%。克里斯蒂亚·弗里兰是前加拿大副总理。她说双方需要更好的结果。我认为,对我们的钢铁、铝、汽车和汽车部件征收永久性关税对加拿大来说是一个糟糕的结果,对这些行业确实有害。但我认为这对美国来说也是一个糟糕的结果。
Uh, it's really important for people to recognize that you can lose by winning. Former Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, and you can catch more of her remarks on Bloomberg Wall Street week tonight at six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg Television and the Bloomberg Business App. Well, we have a winner in this week's special runoff in California to serve the rest of former Congressman Eric Swalwell term with 95% of votes counted.
嗯,人们真正重要的是要认识到,你可以通过获胜而输掉。前加拿大副总理克里斯蒂亚·弗里兰,你可以在今晚东部时间六点通过彭博电台、彭博电视和彭博商业应用看到更多关于她的言论。好吧,我们在加州本周的特殊补选中迎来了一位赢家,以95%的计票率接替前国会议员埃里克·斯瓦尔韦尔剩余任期。
The Associated Press projects state Senator Aisha Wahab will beat fellow Democrat Bay Area Rapid Transit Board President Melissa Hernandez, 53, to 47%. Wahab will become the first African American to serve in Congress, and her campaign was backed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus. The result comes as Swalwell remains under investigation for sexual assault allegations. Federal agents seized electronic devices from the former congressman at San Francisco Airport over the weekend and later searched his home in Washington, D.C..
美联社预测,州参议员艾莎·瓦哈布将以53%对47%的票数击败 fellow Democrat、湾区捷运董事会主席梅丽莎·埃尔南德斯(53岁)。瓦哈布将成为第一位在国会任职的非裔美国人,她的竞选得到了国会进步核心小组的支持。这一结果出现在斯瓦尔韦尔仍因涉嫌性侵犯行为接受调查之际。联邦特工上周末在旧金山机场从这位前国会议员手中没收了电子设备,随后搜查了他位于华盛顿特区住所。
Alexis, the midterm elections are now less than 80 days away, and Republicans have a huge war chest sitting on the sidelines. The latest federal filings show President Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc., has a nearly $404 million cash pile. The committee received another $3 million in donations last month, including from private prison operator Geo Group and sugar producer Florida Crystals. At the same time, Maga Inc spent just $132,000 in July, mostly on operating costs.
亚历克西斯,中期选举现在距离不到80天,共和党人有一大笔资金闲置在场外。最新的联邦文件显示,特朗普总统的超级政治行动委员会MAGA Inc.拥有近4.04亿美元的现金储备。该委员会上个月又收到了300万美元的捐款,其中包括来自私营监狱运营商Geo Group和糖生产商佛罗里达水晶公司的捐款。与此同时,Maga Inc.在7月份仅花费了13.2万美元,主要用于运营成本。
President Trump has said he plans to use Maga Inc to support Republicans. So far, though, he hasn't signed off on a plan. And Treasury Secretary Scott Benson says he's prepared to ramp up buybacks of costly U.S. government debt. That's despite the short lived impact so far on long term borrowing costs, and also hinted at a new fiscal plan to address the highest Treasury yields in decades. Once the market understands it, we are focused on fiscal consolidation and that we are, uh, trying to bring the market back into equilibrium.
特朗普总统表示他计划使用Maga Inc.来支持共和党人。然而到目前为止,他尚未批准任何计划。财政部长斯科特·本森表示,他准备增加购买昂贵的美国政府债务。尽管迄今为止对长期借贷成本的影响短暂,他还暗示了一项新的财政政策计划,以解决数十年来最高的国债收益率。一旦市场理解这一点,我们就专注于财政整顿,并且我们正试图让市场恢复均衡。
I in a similarly traded market, I think, uh, you know, I'm confident that bonds will continue declining. Treasury Secretary Scott Benson added the expanded buyback could be more than the $4 billion currently planned for next month. Alexis, there's a warning this morning from former New York Fed Bank president Bill Dudley. The current Bloomberg Opinion columnist says the U.S. equity market is in bubble territory. Look at the railroads and the internet, uh, telecom boom.
我认为,在同样交易活跃的市场中,债券价格将继续下跌。财政部长斯科特·本森补充称,扩大回购规模可能超过下月目前计划的40亿美元。阿莱克西斯,今天早晨前纽约联邦储备银行行长比尔·达德利发出警告。这位现任彭博社意见专栏作家表示,美国股市已进入泡沫区域。看看铁路、互联网和电信繁荣时期。
All those things did great things for the economy. So two things can be true at the same time. The technological innovation can be really transformative, but at the same time, you can have an investment boom and bust. And in fact, if you look at history, it tells you that that's usually the case. So the question here is really it's just really not whether it's going to be a turn from a boom to bust. It's really a question of timing and magnitude.
所有这些事物都为经济做出了巨大贡献。因此两件事可以同时成立。技术创新确实具有变革性,但与此同时,也可能出现投资热潮与萧条。事实上,如果你回顾历史,你会发现这通常是常态。所以这里的问题其实不在于是否会从繁荣转向萧条,而在于时机和幅度。
That's former New York Fed president Bill Dudley. He says the stock market bubble will likely burst before the end of 2027. You can hear his full remarks on the Bloomberg Video Hub at Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Business App. And that's news when you want it with Bloomberg News now. I'm Alexis Christopherson. I'm Nathan Hager and this is Bloomberg.
这是前纽约联邦储备银行行长比尔·达德利的观点。他表示股市泡沫可能在2027年底前破裂。你可以在Bloomberg.com以及彭博商业APP的彭博视频中心收听他的完整讲话。这就是你想要的新闻——彭博新闻社即时送达。我是阿莱克西斯·克里斯托弗森,我是内森·海格,这里是彭博社。
更进一步:量化金融体系
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