特朗普拟对伊发动经济D日,美债突破40万亿美元
Trump Threatens ‘Economic D-Day’ Against Iran | Balance of Power 08/20/2026
宏观核心变量共振:美债规模与利率预期直接影响全球资产定价锚,叠加地缘制裁升级可能扰动能源与供应链。关注周一财长具体政策落地及市场反应。
THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER," LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C. KAILEY: TONIGHT, THE TREASURY SECRETARY, SCOTT BESSENT, SAYS MORE STEPS ARE COMING TO TACKLE LONG-TERM YIELDS AFTER 30-YEAR BONDS GAVE BACK GAINS. BESSENT DISMISSED THE MOVE AS NOISE, SAYING THE ADMINISTRATION STILL HAS A BIG TOOLKIT TO BRING BORROWING COSTS DOWN. PLUS, PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCES A NEW CRUSHING CAMPAIGN AIMED AT CRIPPLING IRAN'S ECONOMY BUT OFFERS NO DETAILS.
这里是华盛顿特区现场直播的《权力平衡》。凯利:今晚,财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示,在30年期国债回吐涨幅后,将采取更多措施应对长期收益率。贝森特将该举动视为噪音,称政府仍拥有大量工具来降低借贷成本。此外,特朗普总统宣布了一项旨在重创伊朗经济的新运动,但未提供细节。
BESSENT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT THE PLAN MONDAY AS IRAN DISMISSES THE THREATS. TRADING OFFICIALS ARE BACK AT THE NEGOTIATING TABLE RACING TO LOCKDOWN A DEAL WITH TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AFTER THE PRESIDENT GAVE BOTH SIDES THREE DAYS TO AVERT A NEW ROUND OF 50% TARIFFS. FROM BLOOMBERG'S WASHINGTON, D.C., STUDIOS TO BLOOMBERG AND TV AUDIENCES WORLDWIDE, I'M KAILEY LEINZ AND THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER." SCOTT BESSENT SAYING HE'S PREPARED TO EXPAND BONDS EVEN FURTHER AND IS TEASING A NEW FISCAL INITIATIVE A DAY AFTER HIS DEPARTMENT ANNOUNCED THE NATIONAL DEBT SURPASSED $40 TRILLION.
预计贝森特将在周一阐述该计划,而伊朗则无视这些威胁。交易官员们已重返谈判桌,争分夺秒地与特朗普政府达成协议,因为总统给了双方三天时间来避免新一轮50%的关税。来自彭博社华盛顿演播室向全球彭博电视观众报道,我是凯利·莱因茨,这是《权力平衡》节目。斯科特·贝森特表示他准备进一步扩大债券操作,并在其部门宣布国家债务超过40万亿美元后的第二天,暗示了一项新的财政举措。
LET'S GO TO JEFF MASON WHO IS STANDING BY WITH MORE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE NORTH LAWN. YOU HAVE THE ABILITY TO QUESTION THE TREASURY SECRETARY ABOUT THIS TODAY. WHAT DID HE TELL YOU?
让我们连线杰夫·梅森,他正在白宫北草坪进行现场报道。你今天有机会向财政部长提问。他告诉了你什么?
I DID AND ASKED ESSENTIALLY IF HE HAD MORE PLANTS BECAUSE OF WHAT YOU WERE JUST SAYING. BECAUSE THE ACTION THE TREASURY TOOK YESTERDAY HAD A PRETTY SHORT-TERM EFFECT WITH YIELDS RESPONDING AND THEN COMING BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE 24 HOURS LATER. HE DID USE THAT NOISE QUOTE THAT YOU REFERENCED, AND I THINK IT IS A SIGN GENERALLY UP FRUSTRATION HERE, AT LEAST WITHIN THE ADMINISTRATION AND PERHAPS WITHIN TREASURY, THAT IT DID NOT HAVE A GREATER IMPACT, BUT THE SIGNAL HE GAVE IN THE CNBC INTERVIEW IS THAT THEY HAVE MORE TOOLS IN THE TOOLBOX.
我确实问了,基本上是在问他是否还有更多计划,因为你刚才提到的情况。因为财政部昨天采取的行动对收益率的影响相当短暂,收益率回应后又回到了24小时前的水平。他确实用了你所引用的“噪音”一词,我认为这通常表明这里(至少在内阁内部,也许也在财政部内部)存在挫败感,因为该行动没有产生更大的影响,但他在CNBC采访中的信号是,他们工具箱里还有更多工具。
AGAIN, ALL THAT REFERENCING THE FACT THAT WHAT THEY DID YESTERDAY DID NOT REALLY WORK. KAILEY: I'M ALSO CURIOUS WHAT YOU EXPECT WE WILL HEAR FROM THE TREASURY SECRETARY, NOT ON THIS BUT ON MEASURES AGAINST IRAN, AS HE PROMISED A PRESS CONFERENCE MONDAY AFTER THE PRESIDENT ANNOUNCED MEASURES THAT HE SAID WOULD BRING ECONOMIC D-DAY ON IRAN. WHAT EXACTLY COULD THIS LOOK LIKE? JEFF: GOOD QUESTION. I SPOKE TO A WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL ABOUT THAT, TOO, DID NOT WANT TO GIVE A LOT OF DETAIL SPECIFICALLY SAYING IF THEY WENT OUT, WHO OR WHAT MIGHT SANCTIONED AND THOSE INDIVIDUALS OR ENTITIES MIGHT HAVE AN ABILITY TO PREPARE FOR THAT.
再次强调,这一切都指的是他们昨天的做法实际上并未奏效。凯利:我也很好奇,你预期我们会从财政部长那里听到什么,不是关于这个,而是关于针对伊朗的措施,正如他在总统宣布将给伊朗带来经济“D日”的措施后承诺周一举行新闻发布会那样。这具体会是什么样子?杰夫:好问题。我也就此与一位白宫官员交谈过,对方不愿透露太多细节,特别是如果措施出台,谁或什么实体可能会受到制裁,以及这些个人或实体是否有能力为此做准备。
THAT SEEMED TO ME AT LEAST TO HINT THAT SANCTIONS ARE PART OF THAT TOOLBOX, BUT THAT IS PROBABLY FAIRLY OBVIOUS. THEY ARE WORKING ON PUTTING THAT TOGETHER, AND I THINK, BROADLY, IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THIS IS A COMPLETELY NEW PHASE FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP WITH REGARD TO THE IRAN CONFLICT. HE STARTED THIS WAR ALONG WITH ISRAEL ROUGHLY SIX MONTHS AGO, HAS DECLARED VICTORY A HANDFUL OF TIMES, BUT IT IS REALLY STILL ONGOING, EVEN THOUGH HE IS READY TO GET OUT AND READY FOR THE FIGHTING NOT TO BE THE MAIN HEADLINE.
在我看来,这至少暗示制裁是工具箱的一部分,但这可能相当明显。他们正在着手整合这些措施,我认为,广义上,还需要注意一个重要的事实:就伊朗冲突而言,特朗普总统正处于一个全新的阶段。大约六个月前,他与以色列一起发动了这场战争,曾多次宣布胜利,但事实上冲突仍在持续,尽管他已准备退出,并希望战斗不再成为主要头条新闻。
THE ECONOMIC PRESSURE IS THE NEXT STEP. WE WILL SEE IF ANY OF THE STEPS FROM THE ECONOMIC TOOLBOX END UP REALLY MAKING A DIFFERENCE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE IRAN HAS FACED PRESSURE FROM THE UNITED STATES AND THE REST OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY FOR DECADES. KAILEY: BASICALLY HALF A CENTURY. BLOOMBERG'S JEFF MASON LIFE AT THE WHITE HOUSE TONIGHT. THANK YOU. JOINING US NOW IS REPUBLICAN CONGRESSMAN MICHAEL LAWLER OF NEW YORK WHO SERVES ON THE HOUSE FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE AND HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVICES COMMITTEE AND JOINS US LIVE FROM BLOOMBERG WORLD HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK CITY.
经济压力是下一步行动。我们将看到经济工具箱中的哪些措施最终能真正发挥作用。需要注意的是,几十年来,伊朗一直面临来自美国及国际社会其他成员的压力。凯利:基本上半个世纪。彭博社的杰夫·梅森今晚从白宫发回报道。谢谢。现在加入我们的是来自纽约的共和党众议员迈克尔·劳勒,他担任众议院外交事务委员会和众议院金融服务委员会委员,目前正通过直播从纽约市彭博全球总部与我们连线。
WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG. I WOULD LIKE TO BEGIN, IF WE CAN, WITH A NUMBER WE SAW YESTERDAY. $40 TRILLION NOW AND BUILDING IS OUR NATIONAL DEBT. THE TREASURY SECRETARY IS OBVIOUSLY TRYING TO TAKE SHORT-TERM STEPS TO ADDRESS THE RISING BORROWING COST THAT HAS BROUGHT WITH IT, BUT WHAT ELSE NEEDS TO BE DONE? WHAT IS THE RESPONSIBILITY OF CONGRESS TO ADDRESS THAT? REPRESENTATIVE LAWLER: ANY TIME YOU TRY TO ACT ON EXPENDITURES, THE POLITICS BEGINS, AND WE SEE THAT IN MY OWN RACE WHERE I'M BEING ATTACKED CONSISTENTLY ON THE SPENDING REDUCTIONS WE MADE REMOVING WASTE, FRAUD, AND ABUSE, BUT THE FACT IS THAT WHEN WE ARE AT $40 TRILLION IN DEBT, RUNNING TO TRILLION DOLLARS PLUS DEFICITS, PAYING $1 TRILLION IN INTEREST, THIS IS A CRISIS, AND I THINK IT IS INCUMBENT ON REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS IN WASHINGTON TO GET SERIOUS ABOUT, NOT FROM A POLITICAL STANDPOINT BUT FROM A GOVERNMENTAL STANDPOINT, AND WORK TO FIND WAYS TO REDUCE EXPENDITURES.
欢迎回到彭博社。如果可以的话,我想以我们昨天看到的一个数字开始讨论。我们的国债目前已达到40万亿美元并仍在增长。财政部长显然正在采取短期措施来解决由此带来的不断上升的借贷成本,但还需要做些什么?国会应承担什么责任来解决这一问题?劳勒代表:每当试图在支出问题上采取行动时,政治博弈就会开始,这一点在我自己的选区竞选中体现得淋漓尽致,我因削减开支、消除浪费、欺诈和滥用行为而持续受到攻击。但事实是,当债务高达40万亿美元,赤字超过一万亿,利息支付达1万亿美元时,这是一场危机。我认为,华盛顿的共和党和民主党人有责任严肃对待这一问题,不是从政治立场出发,而是从政府治理的角度出发,共同努力寻找减少支出的方法。
OUR TAX REVENUE IS AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH. DEMOCRATS CONSISTENTLY ARGUED THAT WE NEED TO INCREASE TAXES ON THE WEALTHIEST, BUT THE FACT IS THAT OUR REVENUE CONTINUES TO HIT ALL-TIME HIGHS UNDER THE CURRENT TAX LAW, AND YET EXPENSES HAVE GONE UP SIGNIFICANTLY. UNDER THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, YOU SAW $5 TRILLION IN NEW MONEY BEING SPENT, WHICH MEANT THEY HAD MORE BORROWING, WHICH MEANT THAT THEY HAD TO PRINT MORE MONEY. FUNDAMENTALLY, THAT DROVE UP INFLATION.
我们的税收收入处于历史最高水平。民主党人一贯主张我们需要对最富有的人增税,但事实是,在现行税法下,我们的收入持续创下历史新高,而支出却大幅上升。在拜登政府期间,你看到有5万亿美元的新资金被花费,这意味着他们增加了借贷,这也意味着他们必须印更多的钱。从根本上说,这推高了通货膨胀。
WE HAD A CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF 21% INFLATION OVER THOSE YEARS, SO WE ARE WORKING TO TURN THE TIDE HERE. IT WILL NOT BE FIXED OVERNIGHT, BUT I THINK THERE ARE REAL CHALLENGES THAT WE HAVE TO TACKLE, NOT JUST BETWEEN NOW AND NOVEMBER, BUT OBVIOUSLY OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS, AS WE REALLY ADDRESS THE ISSUE OF OUR NATIONAL DEBT. THIS IS NOT SUSTAINABLE, AND I THINK MOST RATIONAL PEOPLE ACKNOWLEDGE THAT. KAILEY: YOUR POINT IS WELL TAKEN THAT DEBT DID CLIMB DURING THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, THE WE SHOULD ADD ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL WILL ADD TRILLIONS TO THE DEFICIT ACCORDING TO THE CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE, AND WE HAVE SEEN THE DEBT KEEP CLIMBING SINCE TRUMP HAS BEEN BACK IN OFFICE -- REP.
在那几年里,我们经历了21%的累计通胀效应,所以我们正在努力扭转这一局面。这不是一夜之间就能解决的,但我认为我们有真正的挑战要应对,不仅是在现在到11月之间,而且显然在未来两年内,当我们真正解决国家债务问题时更是如此。这是不可持续的,我认为大多数理性的人都承认这一点。凯利:你的观点很有道理,即债务在拜登政府期间确实攀升了,我们应该补充一点,根据国会预算办公室的数据,《大而美丽法案》(Big Beautiful Bill)将使赤字增加数万亿美元,自从特朗普重新执政以来,我们看到债务持续攀升——众议员
LAWLER: JUST ON THAT POINT, I WOULD POINT OUT ONE THING -- REVENUE CONTINUES TO HIT ALL-TIME HIGHS. REVENUE HITS ALL-TIME HIGHS BUT THE DEFICIT GROWS, THAT MEANS EXPENDITURES ARE OUTPACING REVENUE AND THAT MEANS CONGRESS NEEDS TO GET SERIOUS ABOUT IT. KAILEY: WHAT ABOUT SOCIAL SECURITY AND ENTITLEMENT PROGRAMS? IS THAT REALISTICALLY WHAT NEEDS TO BE CUT? HOW DO YOU GET A HANDLE ON THAT PROBLEM?
劳勒:就这一点而言,我要指出一个事实——收入持续创下历史新高。收入创下历史新高但赤字却在扩大,这意味着支出超过了收入,这意味着国会需要认真对待这个问题。凯利:社会保障和福利项目呢?从现实角度来看,那些是需要削减的吗?你如何着手解决那个问题?
IT IS NOT A FUNCTION OF CUTTING IT. WE WANT TO GET A HOLD OF THESE PROGRAMS AND SUSTAIN THEM FOR THE FUTURE. SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE OUTLAYS WILL INCREASE AS THE BABY BOOMER GENERATION REACHES THE AGE OF RETIREMENT, WHICH THEY HAVE. THE HEALTH NEEDS OF THAT POPULATION GROWS, AND SO THE QUESTION IS HOW DO YOU ADDRESS THE REVENUE SIDE OF IT? ONE OF THE THINGS THAT BILL CASSIDY HAS TALKED ABOUT IS TAKING ALL NEW OFFSHORE OIL LEASES AND PUTTING THOSE FUNDS DIRECTLY INTO THE SOCIAL SECURITY TRUST FUND, WHICH WOULD OBVIOUSLY GIVE A NEW REVENUE STREAM TO THE TRUST FUND AND HELP SUSTAIN IT.
这并不是通过削减支出来解决的问题。我们要掌控这些项目并为未来提供保障。随着婴儿潮一代达到退休年龄(他们已经到了),社会保障和医疗保险的支出将会增加。该人群的健康需求也在增长,所以问题是如何解决其收入端的问题?比尔·卡西迪(Bill Cassidy)提到的一个措施是将所有新的海上石油租赁收入直接注入社会保障信托基金,这显然会为信托基金带来新的收入来源并帮助维持其可持续性。
WE NEED TO SIT DOWN IN A BIPARTISAN WAY. I HAVE BEEN SITTING DOWN WITH MY DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN COLLEAGUES FOR MONTHS, AND WE HAVE BEEN TALKING PRECISELY ABOUT THIS, BUT IT WILL REQUIRE ACTION, IN THE NEXT CONGRESS IN PARTICULAR. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN IF WE DO NOTHING, THERE WILL BE AN AUTOMATIC REDUCTION IN BENEFITS WITH SOCIAL SECURITY IN THE NEXT SIX YEARS, AND THAT I DON'T THINK ANYONE SUPPORTS. CERTAINLY NOT ME.
我们需要以两党合作的方式坐下来讨论。几个月来,我一直在与我的民主党和共和党同事会面,我们一直在专门讨论这个问题,但这需要采取行动,尤其是在下一届国会期间。我们已经看到,如果我们什么都不做,未来六年社会保障福利将自动削减,我认为没有人支持这一点。当然我也不支持。
KAILEY: THE CLOCK IS TICKING IN THAT DIRECTION VERY FAST. I WANT TO ASK ABOUT ANOTHER ISSUE WE HAVE SPENT A LOT OF TIME TALKING ABOUT ON BLOOMBERG THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE QUESTION AROUND CORRECT POLICY FOR DATA CENTERS. THERE HAS BEEN MASSIVE BIPARTISAN PUSH BACK IT SEEMS AGAINST DATA CENTERS. YOU HAVE A REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE FOR SENATE CALLING FOR A ONE-YEAR MORATORIUM. WE HAVE SEEN A MORATORIUM PUT IN PLACE IN YOUR STATE OF NEW YORK.
凯利:时间正朝着那个方向飞速流逝。我想问另一个问题,过去几天我们在彭博社花了大量时间讨论的问题。关于数据中心正确政策的问题。似乎出现了大规模的两党反对数据中心的反弹。有一位共和党参议员候选人呼吁实施为期一年的暂停令。我们看到你的纽约州已经实施了暂停令。
IS THAT WHAT YOUR CONSTITUENTS ARE DEMANDING RIGHT NOW? REP. LAWLER: NUMBER ONE, THERE IS GREAT CONCERN ABOUT THE IMPACT OF THESE LARGE-SCALE DATA CENTERS ON OUR ENERGY SUPPLY, ON WATER USAGE, AND I THINK, FRANKLY, THE ENERGY HAS -- THE INDUSTRY HAS DONE A TERRIBLE JOB OF ARTICULATING WHY THESE DATA CENTERS ARE NECESSARY, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE AI SPACE, BUT I THINK FUNDAMENTALLY A FEW THINGS. NUMBER ONE, I SUPPORT THE RIGHT OF LOCAL COMMUNITIES TO MAKE THEIR OWN ZONING AND PLANNING DECISIONS AND MAKE A DETERMINATION ABOUT IF THIS IS SOMETHING THEY WA
这是你目前的选民所要求的吗?劳勒众议员:第一,人们非常担心这些大型数据中心对我们能源供应、用水量以及我认为坦率地说,能源行业——该行业在阐述为什么这些数据中心是必要的时候做得非常糟糕,特别是在人工智能领域,但我认为从根本上说有几件事。第一,我支持地方社区做出自己的分区和规划决定,并确定这是否是它们想要的事物。
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