美债收益率创20年新高，财政部扩大回购应对
Why Treasury yields are at 20-year highs – and why it matters
. THANK YOU. GEOFF: WELCOME TO THE "NEWS HOUR." WE BEGIN TONIGHT WITH NEW CONCERNS ON WALL STREET AND IN WASHINGTON ABOUT A SHARP SELLOFF IN THE BOND MARKET THAT'S PUSHING LONG-TERM TREASURY YIELDS TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY TWO DECADES. THOSE RISING YIELDS MEAN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS PAYING MORE TO BORROW, AND THE RIPPLE EFFECTS THROUGH THE ECONOMY ARE DRIVING UP BORROWING COSTS ON EVERYTHING FROM MORTGAGES TO CAR LOANS.
谢谢。杰夫：欢迎收看《新闻一小时》。今晚我们首先关注华尔街和华盛顿对债券市场大幅抛售的新担忧，此次抛售将长期国债收益率推高至近二十年来的最高水平。收益率上升意味着联邦政府借款成本增加，其连锁反应正推高从抵押贷款到汽车贷款等各类借贷成本。
AMNA: YESTERDAY, TREASURY SECERTARY SCOTT BESSENT ANNOUNCED NEW STEPS TO TRY TO HELP STABILIZE THE BOND MARKET. ESSENTIALLY, THE GOVERNMENT WILL INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF BONDS IT BUYS BACK. THAT ALL COMES AS THE NATIONAL DEBT OFFICIALLY PASSED THE 40 TRILLION DOLLAR MARK THIS WEEK. THIS MORNING ON CNBC, BESSENT SAID HE WAS CONFIDENT THAT HIGHER YIELDS -- OR INTEREST RATES FOR THOSE BONDS -- WOULD COME DOWN SOON.
阿姆娜：昨天，财政部长斯科特·贝森特宣布新举措，试图帮助稳定债券市场。本质上，政府将增加回购债券的数量。这一切发生在本周国家债务正式突破40万亿美元大关之际。今早在CNBC上，贝森特表示，他相信较高的收益率——即这些债券的利率——很快就会下降。
WE ROUTINELY DO BUYBACKS AND WE'RE GOING TO INCREASE THE SIZE OF THE BUYBACK. WE HAVE A BIG TOOLKIT, SO WE'LL SEE. AND PART OF IT IS SIGNALING TO SHOW THAT WE BELIEVE THAT THE YIELDS DON'T REFLECT THE UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS. AMNA: TO HELP MAKE SENSE OF IT ALL, WE'RE JOINED AGAIN BY DAVID LYNCH, GLOBAL ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT FOR THE WASHINGTON POST AND AUTHOR OF THE BOOK "THE WORLD'S WORST BET: HOW THE GLOBALIZATION GAMBLE WENT WRONG (AND WHAT WOULD MAKE IT RIGHT)."
我们定期进行回购，而且我们将扩大回购规模。我们有很多工具，所以走着瞧吧。其中一部分是发出信号，表明我们认为收益率并未反映基本面。阿姆娜：为了帮助大家理解这一切，我们再次邀请到《华盛顿邮报》全球经济记者、著有《世界上最糟糕的赌注：全球化豪赌如何出错（以及如何纠正）》一书的戴维·林奇。
HELP US UNDERSTAND THE BASICS OF THE BOND MARKET. WHEN YIELDS ARE RISING OR FALLING, IN PRACTICE, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? DAVID: IF YIELDS ARE RISING, IT MEANS INVESTORS ARE DEMANDING A HIGHER RETURN FOR LENDING THEIR BUNNY TO THE GOVERNMENT. A BOND IS ESSENTIALLY A FANCY WORD FOR A LOAN. A BOND IS WHERE CORPORATIONS GO TO RAISE MONEY. IF I DECIDE TO BUY A BOND, I AM LENDING MONEY TO THE GOVERNMENT WITH A PROMISE TO PAY ME A RETURN, LIKE AN INTEREST RATE. 5% MEANS I WILL GET 5% BACK EVERY YEAR UNTIL THE BOND MATURES, IN THIS CASE, SAY, 30 YEARS, AND THEN THE GOVERNMENT PAYS ME BACK.
请帮我们理解债券市场的基本原理。当收益率上升或下降时，实际上意味着什么？戴维：如果收益率上升，意味着投资者要求更高的回报才愿意借钱给政府。债券本质上就是贷款的一个花哨说法。债券是企业筹集资金的方式。如果我决定购买债券，我就是把钱借给政府，政府承诺给我回报，就像利率一样。5%意味着每年我会获得5%的回报，直到债券到期，比如30年后，然后政府把钱还给我。
AMNA: YOU MENTIONED THE 30 YEAR U.S. TREASURY BOND THAT IS CONSIDERED TO BE ONE OF THE SAFEST BETS IN THE WORLD. THE YIELD ON THAT HIT 5.3% ON TUESDAY, UP FROM AS LOW AS 1.7% IN 2021, THE HIGHEST RATE WE UNT WHAT IS DRIVING THAT INCREASE? DAVID: A NUMBER OF FACTORS HAVE COME TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME, BUT THE MAJOR INGREDIENT IS JUST BASIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND. YOU'VE GOT A LOT OF INSTITUTIONS, BOTH ON THE GOVERNMENT SIDE AND BIG BUSINESS, THAT ARE GOING INTO THE BOND MARKET AND TRYING TO RAISE MONEY.
阿姆娜：你提到了30年期美国国债，它被认为是世界上最安全的投资之一。周二其收益率达到5.3%，高于2021年低至1.7%的水平，这是我们见过的最高利率。是什么推动了这一增长？戴维：多种因素同时汇聚，但主要因素就是基本的供需关系。很多机构，无论是政府方面还是大企业，都在进入债券市场试图筹集资金。
AS A BOND INVESTOR, I'VE GOT A LOT OF COMPETITION FOR MY MONEY. SO THE PRICE OF MY MONEY EFFECTIVELY IS GOING UP. IF IT WAS JUST THE U.S. GOVERNMENT THAT WANTED TO RAISE MONEY, IF THERE WERE NO CORPORATIONS, THEN THE GOVERNMENT WOULD PROBABLY HAVE TO PAY VERY LITTLE TO GET ME TO LOAN MONEY, BECAUSE I WOULD HAVE NO ALTERNATIVE. BUT AS AN INVESTOR, I CAN LET MY MONEY TO AMAZON OR GOOGLE OR ONE OF THE BIG DAY I SCALARS THAT ARE BUILDING OUT THE ARTIFICIAL -- ONE OF THE BIG AI HYPER SCALARS THAT ARE BUILDING OUT THE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE REVOLUTION, OR I CAN LET MY MONEY TO A
作为一名债券投资者，我的资金面临着大量竞争。因此，我的资金价格实际上在上涨。如果只是美国政府想筹集资金，如果没有企业，那么政府可能只需支付很少的利息就能让我借钱，因为我没有其他选择。但作为投资者，我可以把钱借给亚马逊、谷歌或那些正在构建人工智能革命的大型AI超大规模企业之一，或者我可以把钱借给一个
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力