美伊停战谈判60天期限届满，特朗普威胁轰炸阿曼并缩减美韩军演
PBS News Hour full show, August 17, 2026
AMNA NAWAZ: Good evening. I'm Amna Nawaz. Geoff Bennett is away. On the "NewsHour" tonight: The 60-day window to reach a deal to end the war with Iran expires, as tensions rise around key shipping routes. The president calls for joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises to be scaled back, citing South Korea's unwillingness to help with the Iran war. And scientists study whether it would be feasible to build a large-scale underwater barrier to slow the melting of glaciers.
阿姆娜·纳瓦兹：晚上好。我是阿姆娜·纳瓦兹。杰夫·贝内特不在。今晚的《新闻一小时》：与伊朗达成结束战争协议的60天窗口期到期，而关键航运路线周围的紧张局势加剧。总统呼吁缩减美韩联合军事演习，理由是韩国不愿协助对伊朗的战争。科学家们研究建造大规模水下屏障以减缓冰川融化的可行性。
DAVID HOLLAND, New York University: Can it solve it completely forever? No, because, if you keep warming the atmosphere, this is going to retreat faster. (BREAK) AMNA NAWAZ: Welcome to the "News Hour." President Trump lashed out at U.S. allies today, as the deadline to reach a deal to end the war with Iran expires. The president threatened to bomb Oman, which has been mediating negotiations with Iran, and called for joint military exercises with South Korea to be scaled back, in part for refusing to join the war with Iran.
大卫·霍兰德，纽约大学：它能彻底永久解决吗？不能，因为如果大气持续变暖，冰川会更快退缩。（插播）阿姆娜·纳瓦兹：欢迎收看《新闻一小时》。今天，总统特朗普猛烈抨击美国盟友，同时与伊朗达成结束战争协议的期限到期。总统威胁要轰炸一直在调解与伊朗谈判的阿曼，并呼吁缩减与韩国的联合军事演习，部分原因是韩国拒绝加入对伊朗的战争。
Trump also repeated the false claim that the U.S. controls the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway through which 20 percent of global oil moved before the U.S. and Israel launched the war in February and Iran effectively closed the strait. He also threatened to seize the strait as a us territory. DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States: I like the idea of declaring it a territory. QUESTION: Why don't you do that?
特朗普还重复了错误的说法，称美国控制着霍尔木兹海峡，这条关键水道在美国和以色列于2月发动战争、伊朗实际上关闭海峡之前，全球20%的石油通过这里运输。他还威胁要将海峡作为美国领土夺取。唐纳德·特朗普，美国总统：我喜欢将其宣布为领土的想法。提问者：你为什么不这样做？
DONALD TRUMP: We have total control over the strait. We're taking out millions of barrels of oil a week. If you look at the kind of numbers that we're doing, we're doing -- the strait is open. AMNA NAWAZ: For an assessment of where the war stands and what happens next, we get two views. Alan Eyre was a State Department subject matter expert focusing on Iran and a senior member of the Obama administration's negotiating team for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, deal with Iran.
唐纳德·特朗普：我们完全控制着海峡。我们每周运出数百万桶石油。如果你看看我们正在做的数字，我们正在做——海峡是开放的。阿姆娜·纳瓦兹：为了评估战争的现状和接下来会发生什么，我们听取两种观点。艾伦·艾尔曾是国务院伊朗问题主题专家，也是奥巴马政府与伊朗谈判《联合全面行动计划》（JCPOA）协议的高级成员。
He's now at the Middle East Institute. And Reuel Marc Gerecht was a CIA operations officer in the Middle East in the 1980s and '90s. He's now a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Welcome to you both. REUEL MARC GERECHT, Senior Fellow, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies: My pleasure. AMNA NAWAZ: Alan, I will start with you because you have made clear you opposed this war with Iran from the beginning.
他现在在中东研究所工作。鲁埃尔·马克·格雷希特在20世纪80年代和90年代曾是中央情报局在中东的行动官员。他现在是保卫民主基金会的高级研究员。欢迎两位。鲁埃尔·马克·格雷希特，保卫民主基金会高级研究员：我的荣幸。阿姆娜·纳瓦兹：艾伦，我先从你开始，因为你从一开始就明确表示你反对这场对伊朗的战争。
This memorandum of understanding the U.S. and Iran signed back in June was supposed to do a few things, calling for an end to military operations, for the U.S. to end its naval blockade, for Iran and Oman to define the future administration of the strait. The 60 days are up. Why didn't this work? ALAN EYRE, Middle East Institute: It didn't work because there was a total absence of any type of mutual goodwill. And so, when you reach the ambiguity that's in even the best of MOUs -- and, in this case it was about Article 5 of the MOU about how to administer the Strait of Hormuz in the temporary period -- the ambiguity kill
美国和伊朗在六月份签署的这份谅解备忘录本应达成几项目标，包括呼吁停止军事行动、美国结束海上封锁，以及伊朗和阿曼界定海峡未来的管理方式。60天期限已到。为什么没有奏效？中东研究所的艾伦·艾尔：它没有奏效，因为双方完全缺乏任何形式的相互善意。因此，当你遇到即便在最完善的谅解备忘录中也存在的模糊之处时——在这种情况下，是关于备忘录第5条，即如何在临时期间管理霍尔木兹海峡——这种模糊性就成了致命伤。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力